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Running up the BS flag ... again. (update)
Posted by: McQ on Sunday, September 02, 2007

There's a post on the DailyKos claiming the big plan to hit Iran is afoot and the military is only awaiting the order (and yes this is a reoccurring theme we've been hearing for 6 to 8 months now, but this is really "it"!).

The source? An "LSO" on a "supercarrier".
I have a friend who is an LSO on a carrier attack group that is planning and staging a strike group deployment into the Gulf of Hormuz. (LSO: Landing Signal Officer- she directs carrier aircraft while landing) She told me we are going to attack Iran. She said that all the Air Operation Planning and Asset Tasking are finished. That means that all the targets have been chosen, prioritized, and tasked to specific aircraft, bases, carriers, missile cruisers and so forth.
Now I'm not a Naval aviator (obviously) so I read this and think that I need another opinion because, you see, while it sounds fishy, I'm just not steeped in Naval jargon nor do I know Naval SOP or enough about carrier operations to call BS.

I feel something's wrong, but unlike the Beauchamp story, well, I just can't confidently call BS.

Enter Neptunus Lex, who writes one of the better milblogs and is, in fact, a naval aviator having flown an FA-18 a few times, made a few arrested landings, seen a bit of the world and not only knows the jargon, but what it means:
Vitals:

- Flight hours: ~4400
- Arrested landings: 570, or so.
- Deployments: 7
In fact, he commanded an FA-18 squadron among other things:
TOPGUN instructor after that. Was never more proud to be a part of something.

Commanded a west coast FA-18 squadron. Deployed aboard USS CARL VINSON - my first nuke.

Served as Operations Officer aboard the fleet’s finest aircraft carrier, an oil-burner. Put her to bed after 41 years of faithful service.
So you might imagine I'd seek his thoughts on something like this. As it turns out, I didn't have too. He's already run up the expected flag. My favorite line:
Whoever the diarist’s correspondent is, s/he clearly knows a bit of the inside lingo but still manages to get details glaringly wrong in a way that coincidentally serves to reinforce the Kossack’s prejudices, garnering over a thousand comments when I first looked in this morning.
What a surprise. And his experience makes the difference which is why he can read stuff like this and know when it is wrong and a normal reader with no experience or understading of the technical details or the military culture in question might buy the story ... just like with Beauchamp.

Go read Lex's takedown. Interesting stuff. And do check out the two signal flags at the end. Any guess as to the two letters they represent? Heh ... go to the head of the class.

UPDATE: The DailyKos post has gone "poof" and disappeared.

Jay at Stop the ACLU has a good round up of blog reaction.
 
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Comments
And do check out the two signal flags at the end. Any guess as to the two letters they represent? Heh ... go to the head of the class.
I didn’t know until I moused over. The image header and file name are "bs".

:D
 
Written By: jows
URL: http://
How often is a junior officer, particularly one assigned to land planes (not denigrating the position, just saying), told "The Plan" well beforehand?
 
Written By: William Teach
URL: http://www.thepiratescove.us
Well I wasn’t an aviator, but as a surface officer I sure chased around behind enough carriers (Midway, mostly) up around those parts to tell that story was BS just from the bit you quoted, and of course Lex’s take down is superb.

"Gulf" of Hormuz? How about Straight? And you don’t deploy to "Hormuz" anything. You deploy to the IO (Indian Ocean), the NAS (North Arabian Sea), or "The Gulf" (as in: Persian). The Straight of Hormuz is the as*hole of the earth and I’ve never seen serious flight ops conducted from there.

LSOs are going to know exactly dick about Air Operation Planning and Asset Tasking. In fact, the ship’s officers aren’t going to know anything, nor the air wing officers (until it’s necessary), nor even most of the air group staff officers until they need to.
 
Written By: Richard Nikoley
URL: http://www.uncsense.com
How often is a junior officer, particularly one assigned to land planes (not denigrating the position, just saying), told "The Plan" well beforehand?
Not many, and that is where "the smell" began.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog
And the answer (as Lex pointed out) is OF COURSE we have a plan to attack Iran.

What I can’t hardly credit is that an officer would reveal an impending attack. If we *were* just about to attack Iran that is something highly classified and along with all the "disappeared" officers, there’d be one more career going bye-bye.

I’d suspect misinformation for the purpose of scaring the crap out of the Iranian leadership except that there are rules against our military lying to Americans. Or at least American civilians.
 
Written By: Synova
URL: http://synova.blogspot.com
So busy was the Kossack woods trying to slime the military again, or at least one of them... (I note their name isn’t mentioned, but how many female LSO’s are there in the navy, anyway?) ... I notice that there was a post in the London times this morning making pretty much the same accusation:

THE Pentagon has drawn up plans for massive airstrikes against 1,200 targets in Iran, designed to annihilate the Iranians’ military capability in three days, according to a national security expert.

Alexis Debat, director of terrorism and national security at the Nixon Center, said last week that US military planners were not preparing for “pinprick strikes” against Iran’s nuclear facilities. “They’re about taking out the entire Iranian military,” he said.
As I said to my own site this morning;

Yeah…. And?

Because we have plans on the books for invasion, means an invasion is imminent? I mean, don’t these people understand that we also have plans on the books for invasion of every other country on the planet, including Canada, for pity’s sake?

Of course, the lefty blogs are all over this one. They apparently don’t understand what strategic planning is, either. Or perhaps they do, and it’s simply prudent to scream when the remainder of the idiots in the pack do.

Personally, I would consider such an attack prudent. Iran has made their goals known. They’ve told us repeatedly what they’re going to do with those nuclear weapons once they are developed. Is there anyone outside of the usual not jobs in the democratic party, who think we should wait until they make good on that threat? How many of these will be screaming at whoever is in the White House, that they didn’t do their job of protecting the American people from such attacks , after the first few million die in the first attack?

Is there anyone who thinks that the Iranians can be negotiated with, given their current power structure?

Bottom line is I don’t think an invasion of Iran is forthcoming, in the immediate future. That having been said, it is quite prudent to plan for it against the event of it being needful. The white house, and the pentagon, would not be doing their job properly, if such a plan didn’t exist.
 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
But the nutroots is buying it hook, line, and stinker. They are having a "Frodo" moment (Lord of The Rings style)
 
Written By: William Teach
URL: http://www.thepiratescove.us
Your link to DK goes to a DK page that now says: "Sorry. I can’t seem to find that story".
 
Written By: anonymous
URL: http://
It’s part of the military’s job to plan for many different scenarios, no matter how bizzare like the U.S. invading Canada (with a counter-invasion by the Canucks) in the early 20th century or even Imperial Germany invading the U.S. at the dawn of the last century. It doesn’t surprise me in the least that the Pentagon is drawings up plans to attack Iran (more accurately "updating" them I would say). What gives this story some ’legs’ is the build-up of tension between the U.S. and Iran, along with this president’s demonstrated willingness to use force when he believes it is necessary. Personally, I think Bush will bomb Iran before he leaves office IF the situation warrants it at the time or if he thinks his successor may not resolve the problem. I doubt this will happen right now though, possibly (if at all) next summer or fall.

Oh yeah, some Squid deploying to the "Gulf of Hormuz" isn’t going to know squat about it either. In fact, they aren’t going to know if they are conducting exercises again or off to do the real deal until just before it happens.
 
Written By: John
URL: http://averagegayjoe.blogspot.com
I mean, don’t these people understand that we also have plans on the books for invasion of every other country on the planet, including Canada, for pity’s sake?
If ever we have to do invade Canada again though, I trust they have a better strategy in mind than the last two times. The Canucks whipped our butts.
 
Written By: John
URL: http://averagegayjoe.blogspot.com
Well yeah, there is that.
In fairness though, the weapons technology is improved somewhat for our side since then. Theirs, well, not so much.
 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
So, who’s running the pool on the number of nanoseconds before the left deploys the ’fake but true’ defense? (Rapidly followed by the ’you wingnuts are blowing this all out of proportion’ whinge).
 
Written By: Achillea
URL: http://
Of course, the lefty blogs are all over this one. They apparently don’t understand what strategic planning is, either. Or perhaps they do, and it’s simply prudent to scream when the remainder of the idiots in the pack do.
It’s the hive mind.
 
Written By: Aldo
URL: http://
I like the fact that this Administration hasn’t a clue that Iranians are Persians and speak Farsi angle. So some questions:
1) Was FDR or was his Cabinet aware of the multiple cultural divisions within Germany, the division between the Hock Deutsche Prussians, and the more Catholic Southern Germans of Bavaria, and then the general disdain of things Austrian, Uastaurisches Schlumperei (Badly spelled sorry)?
2) Are her SHIPMATES aware of the fact that the Iranians are Persian and speak Farsi, how many of Congress recognize the difference, does John Edqwards or Barack Obama?
3) Are 1) and 2) above even relevant? After all do I REALLY have to understand the differences between various German groupings or Ethnicities in the Persian Gulf to recognize evil and a threat to vital US security interests?

This is, as the author of the site noted, just another little "factoid" tjrown in to show that Chimpy Mcshruburton is a "Doodie-Headed-idjit". I wonder how many of the Kossacs reading the diary realize the differences between Arab and Persian, Shi’i and Sunni?

Now I am not so amazed that an LSO might know of "The Plan." I read Super Carrier, and in it, whilst cruising off Lebanon, the carrier battle group practiced and planned for a massive strike into Lebanon/Syria. Everyone who CARED to figure it out, figured it out...And in this case you’re working up for a deployment into the Persian Gulf, "Hu’mmmmmwho might we be attacking, besides some insurgents?" And IF they are practicing Joint Operations and JSEAD, as well as the delivery of JDAMS onto specific areas of hardened "things" when the insurgents have no SAM’s, no hardened facilities, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to guess what you are "prep’ing for." Not that planning and practicing are evidence of INTENT to attack, merely prudent planning.
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
Bruce: Markos admits he was pwned, but I thought you might get find this ’strategic planning’ by some Kossacks to be interesting:
What did the British spend (0 / 0)
Evacuating Dunkirk?

Democratic Candidate for US Senate, Wisconsin 2012

by ben masel on Sun Sep 02, 2007 at 04:45:35 PM PDT

Well That Was WWII - Yes? (0 / 0)
At least the beginning if I recall. So those troops were part of an on-budget military action not a supplemental military action. In other words I’m sure their Parliament had to appropriate the money for both their initial mission and withdrawal. And they had a Prime Minister who was sensible and actually withdrew the troops.

So we have a completely different scenario with Dunkirk and Churchill, right?

"You Have The Power!" - Howard Dean

by talex on Sun Sep 02, 2007 at 05:05:49 PM PDT

a few days. (0 / 0)
Armies are no use if they cannot evacuate quickly. They got in quick enough. Just bow up the equipment that can’t be carried out.

My novel is full of sex, drink, incest, suicides, dope, horseracing, murder, scandalous legal procedure and ends with a good public hanging—attended by 30,000

by Salo on Sun Sep 02, 2007 at 05:23:52 PM PDT

Well In Theory (1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:Luetta
you are right. But you are talking about an all out war like WWII. Iraq is a bit different than that. In the example of Dunkirk the troops were pretty much evacuated or they would have probably all been killed or captured so it is a different scenario. Also many were evacuated by sea which isn’t the case in Iraq. We must initially leave by land (some air) through what could prove to be some pretty hostile territory to Kuwait. It is not certain whether Turkey would facilitate us leaving through there.

From all that I have read including from the progressive Center for American Progress a safe and orderly withdrawal from Iraq would take a 10- to 12-month period from their latest paper which consulted many experts including military.

"You Have The Power!" - Howard Dean

by talex on Sun Sep 02, 2007 at 05:40:26 PM PDT

Jordan might give passage as well (0 / 0)
so long as everyone keeps moving.

Democratic Candidate for US Senate, Wisconsin 2012

by ben masel on Sun Sep 02, 2007 at 08:40:41 PM PDT
 
Written By: John
URL: http://averagegayjoe.blogspot.com
Fake but true wouldn’t work for this because it’s true but fake.

It’s true we have *plans*.

It’s (probably) fake that we’re intending any sort of attack on Iran.
 
Written By: Synova
URL: http://synova.blogspot.com
Kos may proclaim his innocence... as he has in the past... At the very least, he’s guilty of jumping on the bandwagon, because it happen to be going the same direction as non thinking does. In truth, I think there’s something more to the tale.
 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
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