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Why Republicans will show up at the polls in ’08
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Tom Bevan at RealClearPolitics has a post up called "The Coming War".

And no, it's not about Iraq or Iran or even Turkey. It's about the election of '08. And he prefaces a video from a Republican focus group after the Republican debate in FL with this:
The most telling moment from Sunday's GOP debate didn't take place during the debate itself, but in the focus group of Republican primary voters conducted by pollster Frank Luntz after the debate had ended. Watch the reaction Luntz gets as he quizzes the group on why they nearly spun the favorable dials off the hinges when the GOP candidates started attacking Hillary Clinton.
OK, now watch the video:



Bevan goes on:
The visceral reaction Hillary generates is not unique to Florida Republicans. Indeed, the anger and fear she arouses in most Republicans at the thought of her winning the White House is clearly the force that is sustaining the strength of Rudy Giuliani's candidacy and helping him defy the traditional laws of political gravity in the GOP nominating process that a great many pundits believed would have brought him down to earth by now.
I've been saying for quite some time that Hillary Clinton is more than enough to turn out the Republican base in an election. Many experts doubt that saying that unless the Republicans are able to field an acceptable candidate for both the fiscal cons and the social cons, they won't turn out.

The one guy in the video who echoes my thoughts is near the beginning and says seeing Hillary reminds him of the nightmare of the former Clinton administration and he doesn't want a repeat. Agree or disagree about whether or not it was a nightmare, that's how many if not most Republicans remember it. And I'm convinced they're not about to sit at home when the possibility exists that Hillary may win if they do.

Although this may seem counter-intuitive, that is one of the reasons none of the present "top tier" Republican candidates have been able to pull away from the pack. There's no reason, yet, for Republicans to make that sort of a decision. And, given who the likely opponent will be, whoever finally breaks out of the pack will be their man.

Obviously the social cons or the fiscal cons may end up being unhappy with the Republican choice. But when compared point by point with Clinton, they'll at least be supporting a candidate with whom they have agreement on some points. With Clinton there will be nothing for them whatsoever. That brings it down to a pretty stark choice - support the Republican candidate and get part of what you want, or stay at home and get nothing of what you want.

I'm betting Republicans, regardless of how much they have to hold their nose, end up deciding that half a loaf is better than none. They know 50% of voters have said they won't vote for her. But I think they'll also know that they have to show up to make that enough to keep her out of the White House. And I think they will.
 
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I’m usually pretty sympathetic to Republicans who find no candidate conservative enough to warrant a visit to the booth. I think it’s unlikely Hillary will destroy the country. But I have to think that if true social conservatives had any idea of the outright hostility the Left has for people of faith, they’d quit all this high-minded dithering and run to the polls.

Guys, they HATE you. You may as well be AQ.

Google it!
 
Written By: spongeworthy
URL: http://
The lack of support for McCain echoes what I’ve long believed: he simply won’t make it through the GOP primaries because most of the GOP base loathes him.

I thought the moderator made a bit too much of Guiliani’s position. He asked who though Rudy won, and got four or five hands. That’s nowhere close to a majority, so it would have made sense to check at least Romney and Thompson for comparison. Based on the size of the group, I expect both would have been in the same territory.

I notice Fred is hitting immigration hard today. My intuition has long been that a definite stand on that issue is one of the keys to winning both the primaries and general. Rudy and Mitt have been so-so on immigration, talking generalities but nothing nearly as specific as Fred. Their reaction to his detailed point-by-point will be interesting.
 
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
The problem is that Republicans showed up plenty in 06. Motivating the base was never the problem. It was that independents voted at historically high numbers for Democrats.

Of course, i’m not sure how Hillary will sell to independents in the general election either.
 
Written By: Sean
URL: http://www.myelectionanalysis.com
Tom Bevan at RealClearPolitics has a post up called "The Coming War".

And no, it’s not about Iraq or Iran or even Turkey. It’s about the election of ’08.
Mark Steyn thinks that the US is already in the midst of a "cold civil war".
 
Written By: Aldo
URL: http://
But I think they’ll also know that they have to show up to make that enough to keep her out of the White House. And I think they will.
John Kerry had a similar strategy in 2004. Enough people hated Bush - therefore he couldn’t lose.

Interestingly, however, the Bush supporters seemed to enjoy the hate - and it motivated them to come to the polls. (That along with some anti-gay state ballot issues.)

And chances are the same thing could easily happen in 2008. There are many on the left who do not like Hillary. But the one thing that could get them to come to her defense is a hate-Hillary campaign from the right. I don’t like Hillary - but the one thing would get me to vote for her is an full-frontal attack from the right.

Which is why the best thing that could happen to Hillary would be a zealous anti-Hillary campaign. And given that the a recession looks likely in 2008, it may be the only thing the GOP has to run on.
 
Written By: mkultra
URL: http://
And given that the a recession looks likely in 2008, it may be the only thing the GOP has to run on.
Yes, yes the "Recession" I believe we’ve been in one since 2001..been in one or on the verge of one.

I will say you can’t count on Hillary’s ability to polarize the nation to produce victory for your party, though.
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
At this point in 2003 everyone was certain Howard Dean would be the Democratic nominee, and John Kerry was buried in a list of names that seemed to be going nowhere. I’ll be shocked if it’s Clinton vs. Guiliani. Right now it’s like the exhibition season, most of what’s happening will be obsolete when the real voting starts.
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
The most efective stuff against Hiliary hasn’t seen the light of day, yet.

In some ways she is the McGovern of her time. With just a few (or perhaps a few hundred) commercials that remind people of the "horror" that they wished to escape in 2000, Hiliary will be toast (I hope).
 
Written By: Neo
URL: http://
"John Kerry had a similar strategy in 2004. Enough people hated Bush - therefore he couldn’t lose."

And if 80,000 people — less than 1% — of voters in Ohio had changed their minds, he wouldn’t have. That argument would hold far more water with me if Bush hadn’t won — by far — the narrowest re-election of any President since Woodrow Wilson.
 
Written By: Sean
URL: http://www.myelectionanalysis.com
"I may be bad, but my opponent is worse" isn’t much of a strategy.
 
Written By: timactual
URL: http://
the narrowest re-election of any President since Woodrow Wilson.

Wow Sean what a load of BS.
Playing the magic what-if game, You know if Bush got 80,000 extra votes in Pennsylvania. he would have won that state and Ohio would not have mattered.

If Kerry had got the 80,000 extra votes in Ohio, he would have won by the Electoral college and not the popular vote that the progressives were saving in 2000 should decide the presidency.

Bush 62,040,606 51%
Kerry 59,028,109 48%

Which should it be? Electoral college or popular vote?


 
Written By: Paul L
URL: http://kingdomofidiots.blogspot.com/
At this point in 2003 everyone was certain Howard Dean would be the Democratic nominee, and John Kerry was buried in a list of names that seemed to be going nowhere.
Or not...

Oct 20, 2003: John Kerry has rebounded from a weak second place showing in September to close the margin between himself and frontrunner...Howard Dean

Oct 20, 2003: Four Top Democratic Contenders Just Four Points Apart

Oct 21, 2003: In NH, Dean has led Kerry from 6-14 points

Oct 31, 2003: Democratic Candidates Still Tightly Bunched According to National Harris Poll

What is the separation between Hillary and rivals? Clinton polls at almost 50%, more than doubling Obama’s numbers.

But, as usual, why would anyone depend on Erb to accurately portray anything in our world?
 
Written By: JWG
URL: http://
You’re right JWG, Kerry had pulled up closer to Dean sooner than I recollected. Thanks for the correction (though I’m not sure why you have to throw in gratuitious insults all the time).
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
Because your drivel narrative is mindless and pathetic Erbmiester miesterErber. Thats why!
 
Written By: coaster
URL: http://
"I may be bad, but my opponent is worse" isn’t much of a strategy.
Aaaah this is just a vicious cycle. The Repubs are attacking Hitlery and she is attacking ole Bushie boy. At this point they all seem to be reading from the same playbook. It is kind of pathetic if you really think about it.
 
Written By: Keith
URL: http://
though I’m not sure why you have to throw in gratuitious insults all the time
Because I am sick and tired of your blatant misrepresentations that occur over and over. It is often purposeful, it is tiresome, and someone in in your position of authority and experience should know better.
 
Written By: JWG
URL: http://
Go GOP. Your candidates for president are so inspiring that your only hope of winning is Hilary hate. Nice.
 
Written By: Retief
URL: http://
"I’m not sure why you have to throw in gratuitious insults all the time."
I’m sure, Erb. It’s all "vague" to you. Well, not everybody has that problem. Many know exactly what they’re looking at in you.
 
Written By: Billy Beck
URL: http://www.two—four.net/weblog.php
Because I am sick and tired of your blatant misrepresentations that occur over and over.
Actually, unlike you and a few others, I admit when I’m wrong. These are comments, we all make mistakes. Some of us admit it when it happens, far too many people don’t. You can say "mispresentation" all you want, but that doesn’t make your charge accurate. You’re not telling the truth.
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
You can say "mispresentation" all you want, but that doesn’t make your charge accurate
When I repeatedly place your claims next to what someone actually wrote to demonstrate your errors and you continue to make the same claims, then you are making intentional misrepresentations.

All you need to do is perform a search [try "erb logic" site:www.qando.net].
 
Written By: JWG
URL: http://
When I repeatedly place your claims next to what someone actually wrote to demonstrate your errors and you continue to make the same claims, then you are making intentional misrepresentations
I clearly admit when I make errors. And you can’t ever pull off attempts to claim I’m misrepresenting anyone. Perhaps if you actually talked about issues and ideas rather than looking for a word off, or a mistake you’d find this all less frustrating — though it is nice to think of you as my unpaid fact checker, ready to very quickly show me when I have something wrong like Kerry’s support at this point in 2003. I appreciate the free service you provide — it’s flattering! :-)
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm

 
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