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Upping the pucker factors in Iowa and NH (update)
Posted by: McQ on Wednesday, December 12, 2007

It really, really has turned into a fight among the Dems in Iowa and New Hampshire if you believe the latest polls.

Rasmussen:
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, New Hampshire has joined Iowa in the too close to call category.
Rasmussen has Obama at 31% and Clinton at 28% (2 weeks ago Clinton had a 7 point lead). In Iowa, Clinton still leads Obama but the lead is quite slim (29% to 26%). So both are obviously still very much in play and, while Clinton may still own a commanding lead nationally, it'll be difficult to survive two losses in Iowa and NH (call it the "I want to be with the winner" effect).

CNN has it a little different in New Hampshire, but still a statistical dead-heat:
Clinton has dropped 5 percentage points since the CNN/WMUR November survey, while Obama has gained 8 percentage points, according to the poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Clinton is now at 31 percent to Obama’s 30 percent.
With the contests that close in Iowa and NH and with the double "O's" whooping it up in South Carolina, the Clinton juggernaut isn't so juggernaughty anymore is it? If Clinton loses two out of three, or possibly all three, for all intents and purposes, she may be toast. And frankly, for Republicans, that may be a bad thing. If Huckabee is Mr. Glass Jaw for the Reps, I have to believe the Clinton would be the candidate Republicans most desire to run against. And if Obama manages to pull off the nomination, he could be formidable in a general election. Just look at how much trouble the Clinton campaign is having dealing any substantive blows to the man.

On the Republican side, it's a little different. Although there's been a surge for Huckabee in Iowa, he remains in single-digits in NH according to CNN. There Romney has a commanding lead.

But while you consider all of that, remember this:
“Forty-three percent of Democratic primary voters, and a whopping 55 percent of GOP voters, say they are still trying to make up their minds.”
Look for surprises in January.

UPDATE: The Strategic Vision poll sees Iowa much the same way as Rasmussen for Dems:
Huckabee and Obama continue to lead in Iowa according to a new Strategic Vision (R) poll which will be released tomorrow. On the Democratic side, Obama leads with 33% of the vote and Clinton and Edwards are statistically tied for second with 25% and 24%.
On the Republican side:
On the Republican side, Huckabee leads with 30% while Romney has 25%. Thompson came in third with 13% followed by Giuliani with 10% and McCain with 5%. The poll was conducted December 8 to 10 with 600 people from each party. The margin of error is 4.5%.
Note the margin of error. A statistical tie for Huckabee and Romney.
 
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
if you were a betting man, Bruce, who do you think’s gonna take the first few states?
 
Written By: Joel C.
URL: http://
On the Dem side, I think Obama and Clinton will split the first two states and I’m thinking he has a real shot at taking SC. If he takes that state, Clinton is in real trouble.

On the Rep side, I think there is a distinct possiblity the Huckabee surge may subside and Romney take both Iowa and NH. The fight is going to be over SC. If Thompson doesn’t take it, he’s gone. And Giuliani could be hurting too.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.qando.net/blog
I was thinking the other day that a left-field approach to the primaries would be that a person could only vote in the opposing parties primary. Independents could vote in both primaries.

I think people would either be more conscientious with their vote, or we’d get a Paul vs Kuncinch ticket.

As far as the current horse-race, it’s anyones guess right now. I don’t trust the polls any farther then I can toss the paper their on.
 
Written By: Keith_Indy
URL: http://asecondhandconjecture.com
I don’t know...I don’t see Huckabee (at this point) loosing Iowa, just like I don’t see Romney loosing New Hampshire.

Michigan and Nevada can go either way (Giuliani or Romney), but I’m pretty certain Giuliani will pick both up when you look at the demographics. South Carolina is going to be the big ’what’s gonna happen’ for Romney, Thompson and Huckabee, especially when Florida votes. Giuliani has that one bought and paid for.

The million dollar question is going to be whether or not Giuliani’s ’later state’ strategy will work. Going into Super Tuesday, if Giuliani only has Florida, I don’t know if he can survive (even if he does take New York, New Jersey and California).

This one is going to be an ’up to the wire’ campaign, which is both very interesting and very frustrating.
 
Written By: Joel C.
URL: http://
I’m with Keith. The polls are all over the place. If Huckabee is as strong as the polls indicate, my already-modest remaining respect for GOP voters will evaporate. If McCain’s supposed comeback turns out to be real, that remaining respect will not just evaporate; it will turn to outright contempt.

Romney and Guiliani are puzzles; I don’t really know what they would do as president because their current statements have inconsistencies with their historical positions. Thompson sounds better, but his support for McCain-Feingold still bothers me, and his unconventional campaign strategy doesn’t seem to be taking hold. I fear McCain even more than Huckabee because Huckabee is a lightweight but McCain has the classic great-man complex.

Hillary’s negatives are so high, and the dynasty factor such a turn-off, that I don’t understand why she’s the frontrunner - until I look at Edwards and Obama. "Superficial" and "lightweight" don’t do justice to those two. I wouldn’t trust Edwards to run a PTA group, much less the country. Obama has stepped in the manure so often in this campaign that it ought to be a running joke on Leno by now.

For the polls I’ve looked at in depth, the samples have been small, and the pollsters are still trying to come up with methodologies in a cell-phone age that can really get a representative sample. It’s possible that some of the poll variation is due to the experimental methodologies being tried by different pollsters.

The rest is probably because the voters are looking at the field and don’t feel very happy about any of them. The polls that have tried to gauge how many voters have actually made up their minds have found that it’s a small minority. This race looks absolutely wide-open to me, on both sides.
 
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
"...juggernaughty..."
You’re gonna get some strange hits as a result of that word.
 
Written By: Terry
URL: http://

 
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