Food for Thought Posted by: Dale Franks
on Friday, December 14, 2007
The 2008 presidential race is actually turning into what appears to be a competitive run for both parties. Consider the Intrade futures markets for politics. According to the most recent trade prices, the upcoming primaries look like this:
Winner of 2008 Democratic Iowa Caucus Obama: 50 Clinton: 30
Winner of 2008 Democratic New Hampshire Primary Obama: 50 Clinton: 49
Winner of 2008 Democratic Nevada Caucus Obama: 25 Clinton: 75
Winner of 2008 Democratic South Carolina Primary Obama: 50.1 Clinton: 40
Winner of 2008 Democratic Florida Primary Obama: 25 Clinton: 80
Where Clinton suffers here is that for so long long, she's been more or less the given nominee. If she doesn't look invincible by the end of January, she may not be the nominee at all. If she loses NH, in fact, she begins to look a lot like a loser. Remember in 2004, Howard Dean looked unstoppable before NH. For that matter, so did Ed Muskie, way back in the dark ages.
On the Republican side, it looks like this:
Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus Huckabee: 66 Romney: 25.1
Winner of 2008 Republican New Hampshire Primary Romney: 58 Huckabee: 7 McCain: 7 Giuliani: 7
Winner of 2008 Republican Nevada Caucus Romney: 35 Giuliani: 25.1
Winner of 2008 Republican South Carolina Primary Thompson: 25 Giuliani: 19.9 Romney: 15.2
Winner of 2008 Republican Florida Primary Romney: 35 Giuliani: 25.1
Winner of 2008 Republican Michigan Primary Romney: 50.4 Giuliani: 24.9
Winner of 2008 Republican California Primary Romney: 15 Giuliani: 65 Thompson: 10
The Republican race still looks wide open. I can see the possibility of either a brokered convention, nasty floor fights, and many, many floor votes for the nomination. That hasn't happened in so long, that watching it would be fascinating.
Keep in mind that, the farther away in time an event is, the less accurate the futures markets are. For the last ten years or so, though, the futures markets have, in the last ten days prior to an event, proven to be more accurate than polling.
So it's looking like a very interesting race at this point. Wide open on the Republican side, and the possibility of a front-runner collapse on the democratic side.
And, another note on the whole front-runner deal. Right now, there are no front-runners. Not a single ballot has been cast, and not a single convention delegate committed. That will begin to change very soon. Instead of the press telling us who they think the front-runner is, the voters will begin telling us exactly who the front-runners are.
This should be fun to watch. And you can bet we'll be talking about it on this week's podcast.
I suspect that none of the Caucuses (Caucusi?) will go to Romney or at least by as much shown. I’ve always questioned the Democratic nature of a Caucus and, imho, Romney isn’t one of the leadership anointed candidates.
Just as an aside after looking at this. It’s often said that a governor is more favored in a presidential election than a senator because of executive experience. I would lump Guliani with governors but where do you thinks that leaves Clinton, Obama, Thompson, McCain and possibly Dodd, Paul, Biden, etc? Will that executive experience become a factor as we get further into the cycle?