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So How’s New Hampshire looking?
Posted by: McQ on Friday, December 21, 2007

In a word "interesting". As the first "real" primary, I think it is the more interesting of the two early races. And per the USA TODAY/Gallup poll, it's breaking down like this:
In the poll, Clinton and Obama are tied at 32%-32%, with Edwards at 18%. No other candidate breaks into double digits.

Counting only those who say their vote is certain, Clinton narrowly leads Obama, 20%-18%. Edwards is backed by 10%.

In the Republican race, Romney leads McCain, 34%-27%. Including only those whose votes are set, Romney's lead narrows to 19%-15%, within the survey's margin of error of +/— 5 points.

Effectively tied for third place are former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, at 11%, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, each at 9%.
Now, per Dale's advice about the accuracy of Intrade as we get close to particular primaries, I've been following it rather closely. And it isn't showing a "tie" at all in the Dem race. In fact, it shows Hillary Clinton building a fair lead again:

Clinton: 56

Obama: 48

Edwards: 1.9

Remember, those are trade prices. And currently Clinton's price shows that there's quite a bit of confidence she's going to pull it out whereas, despite what the poll says about Edwards, few if any think Edwards has even an outside shot.

And the Republicans?

Well Intrade has much more confidence in a Romney win than a McCain win, and Huckabee doesn't even show up on the radar screen:

Romney: 56

McCain: 29.9

Huckabee: 4.8

Of course, Huckabee's numbers could climb (bandwagon effect) if he wins Iowa, where, per Intrade, he is the prohibitive favorite at 66.6 (what a great number for a former baptist preacher, eh?). Romney trails with 24.1 and Thompson 3rd at 5.5.

Giuliani? Well not looking so good in IA and NH with respective Intrade numbers of .8 and 3.8.

Iowa for the Dems shows Obama as the favorite with a good lead over Clinton (50 to 39.4) with Edwards holding down 3rd with 24.
 
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
I wasn’t paying attention early in 04, but I have to wonder where kerry was trading in the weeks before iowa and nh.
 
Written By: ChrisB
URL: http://
Aside - Chris Dodd is running ads like crazy on the radio and TV here in Iowa. These people never know when to quit.
 
Written By: Grimshaw
URL: http://
While I respect the power of markets to predict things over the long term, they sometimes do get things wrong in the short term.

Polling can be very accurate as well.

Its interesting that there is such a big gap with Huckabee.

I’d side with the market in this case, but I worry that’s just my confirmation bias talking....

 
Written By: Harun
URL: http://
wow, intrade has some great trade spots. check out this position

WOMEN.TALK.10%.MORE
Next independent publicized study of adult talkativeness will find Women talk 10% more than Men

trading at 89 right now.
 
Written By: ChrisB
URL: http://
Awhile ago when it looked like Clinton and Guiliani were inevitable I got some ridicule when I said it’s too early to really know, and things aren’t worth following closely until the voters in the early primaries really start to focus. Well, that time is here, and yeah, it’s interesting!
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
eh, you could say that sky is blue and probably still get ridicule.
 
Written By: ChrisB
URL: http://

 
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