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The Primary Scoreboard from Intrade
Posted by: McQ on Saturday, December 29, 2007

The polls have all but declared Iowa a tie for the top three Democrats. And last week, when we consulted Intrade, it broke down like this:

Clinton: 39.4

Obama: 50

Edwards: 24

So how is it looking now with only a few days to go?

Clinton: 38.7

Obama: 44.9

Edwards: 22.5

Obama has taken a considerable hit over the last week but neither Clinton or Edwards seem to have benefited from it (both having lost a little ground).

Last week the numbers for New Hampshire were this:

Clinton: 56

Obama: 48

Edwards: 1.9

This week they break down like this:

Clinton: 57.3

Obama: 44

Edwards: 1.6

So Clinton has extended her lead, Obama has taken about the same hit in NH that he took in Iowa and Edwards is simply not a contender for the folks at Intrade.

How about the Republicans in Iowa?

Romney: 35.1

McCain: 5.0

Huckabee: 60.1

Thompson 1.5

Huckabee's seen a drop in his numbers (from 66.6) and that and more has gone to Romney who was at 24.1 last week. McCain has remained about the same, but Thompson has dropped 4 points (5.5) even though polls in IA have him running third there. Giuliani is nowhere to be seen (0.2).

And NH? Last week:

Romney: 56

McCain: 29.9

Huckabee: 4.8

This week:

Romney: 47

McCain: 40

Huckabee: 4.9

Strong surge by McCain and a 9 point loss by Romney. Thompson and Giuliani are at 0.3 and 1.2 respectively.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Given the nature of the Iowa caucus, I’ve got to wonder just how accurate polling there is. And without any more definitive gauge to rely upon, I also wonder just how predictive intrade (or tradesports) is.

My gut tells me Thompson and McCain will fare better than expected, Romney on par, and Huckabee worse. I have no sense what the Dems will do, but then, they haven’t nominated who I thought their strongest candidate was for years.
Written By: bains
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