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Forecasting New Hampshire
Posted by: Dale Franks on Monday, January 07, 2008

 Tomorrow's the big day in New Hampshire, and the last of the polls are in. According to the RCP average, Obama is up by 7.7% on the democratic side, and McCain is up 4.8% on the Republican side.

Moreover, Those numbers look solid, since, Obama is ahead in every poll, and McCain is ahead in all but one.

Overall, it looks like:

DEMOCRATS
Obama: 36.9
Clinton: 29.2
Edwards: 18.8

REPUBLICANS
McCain: 33.5
Romney: 28.7
Huckabee: 11.4

Looking over at the futures markets at Intrade, the Obama contract's last trade was at 92.0, while the McCain contract is at 80.0.

So, it looks like the top two are pretty solid.
 
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Does it seem like Fred Thompson would be an ideal running mate for virtually anybody in the field?
 
Written By: Malone
URL: http://
Again, i think these polls are missing the big point here: If the NH independents go out and vote in the Democratic Primary, as I strongly believe is going to be the case, and not the Republican one (since they can only vote in one, then McCain is really screwed.
 
Written By: Joel C.
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