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Race and the Democrats
Posted by: McQ on Thursday, January 17, 2008

Rasmussen's latest poll is out and for SC and the Democrats, and it shows Obama comfortably ahead.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in South Carolina shows Obama earning 44% of the vote, Clinton attracting 31%, and John Edwards at 15%.

Edwards appears to be a 15% candidate no matter how well the media insists he scores on debates. He my give the best performances, but he's not selling anything and that's the key. And don't forget, SC is where Edwards was born.

In fact, RealClear Politics carries poll numbers from the 4 latest polls which average out to a 9.6% advantage for Obama at the moment.

An interesting point about the African-American vote from Rasmussen which reflects, I think, the results of the "racism" issue between the Clinton and Obama campaigns:

What is clear is that Obama is increasing his support among African-American voters who make up roughly half of Democratic Primary Voters in South Carolina. Obama now leads Clinton 64% to 20% among African-Americans in the Palmetto State. This is similar to the racial divide found in national polling.

Obama’s 44-point advantage among African-Americans is nearly double his 23-point edge in the previous survey. Clinton now leads Obama 44% to 20% among white voters in the state with John Edwards picking up 26% of that vote.

So it appears Clinton suffered a loss in support among African-Americans in that kerfuffle (unless someone can show a similar migration in other demographics, or explain why the shift it taking place fairly suddenly).

By a 43% to 31% margin, African-American primary voters say that most Americans are racist. By a 57% to 22% margin, white primary voters in South Carolina disagree.

Seems to me to be a amplification of the "all whites are racist/blacks are way too sensitive" divide brought about by Democrats fighting over race. And I see this mostly as a media driven event. Or said another way, there was a whole lot of flame fanning going on out there. It seems to have had an effect (of course it helps that there's aways a willing person to speak out on both sides whenever a camera or microphone is stuffed in their face).

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The story about Obama’s church in Chicago is deepening and spreading and when it sweeps through the media, as it will, he’s finished.

He belongs to an Afrocentrist congregation that is the equivalent of a racist Christian Identity church, and that’s going to be unacceptable to most white voters. They haven’t gotten the memo that there’s no such thing as black racism.

Obama would be the easier candidate for the Republicans to beat, in my opinion.

By the way, I think that Oprah Winfrey is going to take a huge hit over this.

Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://mcphillips.blogspot.com/

P.S. on that:

The Clintons have complete deniability on the spread of this. Right now they’re acting like they don’t see it, which is consistent with their adherence to political correctness, and the little dust-up about race over the past week, followed by the "truce" is going to leave their hands clean with respect to Obama’s church. That story is circulating among conservative outlets right now (with at least one notable exception in Richard Cohen). But does anyone believe that the Clintons know exactly what this means and how devastating it’s going to be for Obama?

Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://mcphillips.blogspot.com/

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