Posted by: Dale Franks on Thursday, January 24, 2008 The Democratic candidate—whomever that will be—is already starting out with an advantage. Take a look at the following example from the EV Counter:
For the Republicans, however, the number of solidly red states are diminishing. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon have all gone from red to purple. PA and OR are already blue-inclined, and VA, FL, NM, and OH are getting very purple. You can play the game at home, and when you do, it quickly becomes evident that, once again, Florida is absolutely key. if the Dems take Florida and Oregon, even a Republican sweep of every other state ends up in an electoral college tie. If the Republican wins Florida, on the other hand, the Democrat would have to win Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, and either Ohio or Pennsylvania. Once again, it all comes down to Florida. UPDATE: A commenter notes I mistakenly put Indiana in the blue camp. Indiana is a fairly reliable red state. So the initial numbers change to R:216-D224. Actually, if you toss Oregon in the Dem camp, that brings the Dem candidate up to 231. If you assume the Dem takes PA, Republicans have to win both OH and FL. If the Republicans win PA and OH, then it doesn't matter who wins Florida or New Mexico, but PA has trended pretty blue lately. |
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