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Speaking of Electoral Votes...
Posted by: Dale Franks on Thursday, January 24, 2008

The Democratic candidate—whomever that will be—is already starting out with an advantage. Take a look at the following example from the EV Counter:

The current electoral vote situation

As it stands, the Democrats already have an electoral vote lead of 230-205 over the Republicans. The solid blue states are still solid blue.

For the Republicans, however, the number of solidly red states are diminishing. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon have all gone from red to purple. PA and OR are already blue-inclined, and VA, FL, NM, and OH are getting very purple.

You can play the game at home, and when you do, it quickly becomes evident that, once again, Florida is absolutely key. if the Dems take Florida and Oregon, even a Republican sweep of every other state ends up in an electoral college tie.

If the Republican wins Florida, on the other hand, the Democrat would have to win Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, and either Ohio or Pennsylvania.

Once again, it all comes down to Florida.

UPDATE: A commenter notes I mistakenly put Indiana in the blue camp. Indiana is a fairly reliable red state.

So the initial numbers change to R:216-D224. Actually, if you toss Oregon in the Dem camp, that brings the Dem candidate up to 231.

If you assume the Dem takes PA, Republicans have to win both OH and FL. If the Republicans win PA and OH, then it doesn't matter who wins Florida or New Mexico, but PA has trended pretty blue lately.
 
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
The Dems refusing to recognise the Florida delegates could play a big part in the process.

Bad - it will annoy Floridian Dems who do not feel consulted. Good - it keeps the "racist" v. the "sexist" catfight out of Florida and allows the first real Dem presence to be a united one.
 
Written By: unaha-closp
URL: http://warisforwinning.blogspot.com/
I doubt average Florida voters will care much about the delegates, and those partisan enough to be made about delegates probably will vote Democratic anyway.

I think a McCain or Obama candidacy might mess up the map, each of them could potentially appeal to voters in a way which defies the traditional red-blue dichotomy (Only at the top of the ticket). If it’s Clinton-Romney, that’s probably as good a starting point as any.
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
How is Indiana considered blue?
 
Written By: andrew
URL: http://
I would have put Oregon in solid blue, but I wonder about Michigan if Romney is the candidate. Still no hope for it going red?
 
Written By: Linus
URL: http://
How is Indiana considered blue?
You know what? You’re right. My mistake.
 
Written By: Dale Franks
URL: http://www.qando.net
Dale,

I’m not sure how you’re determining CO is a solidly red state. I will tell you that in the last several years, the Governor, the state house, a large # of House Reps, and a Senator have all gone blue here. (And Wayne Allard - a very RED Republican - is honoring his pledge to step down at the end of his current term.)
 
Written By: A fine scotch
URL: http://
We are actually pretty purple these days... It’s the same as in many states, the urban vote is mostly Democrat, and the sub-urb/rural vote is mostly Republican. And all bets are off if Bayh is VP. He’s a favored son around here, even though his Senate record is pretty much "toe-the-line" Democrat.

I would actually prefer if electoral votes were apportioned more proportionally. The majority winner gets 2, and then the rest proportional to the vote. Might make elections more interesting, and a less sure thing.
 
Written By: Keith_Indy
URL: http://asecondhandconjecture.com
I’m with Linus on OR. I don’t see any chance of it going to a republican this time around.
 
Written By: Lysenko
URL: http://

 
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