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South Carolina: While awaiting the results, some questions
Posted by: McQ on Saturday, January 26, 2008

Of course the questions are will Obama actually win or will we see the "Bradley effect"? If we see the Bradley effect, given it is a Democratic primary, what does that say?

Given expectations does Obama have to win by a significant percentage to get any momentum coming out of SC for Super Tuesday? If so what's the percentage?

It looks like it will be a record turn out. Who does that help?

If John Edwards manages to slip by Hillary Clinton into 2nd, what effect will that have on the race? If he doesn't manage at least second, is he gone? If he goes, who benefits the most?

I'm going to be putting some stuff up tonight about the primary returns as they come in. Not so much the percentages as they change, but the exit poll data as I can gather it. That is, to me, the "tale of the tape" and will tell us much more than final vote percentages for each candidate. In the meantime, your opinions are solicited on the questions raised above.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

You’ve fallen a little behind the curve here, McQ.

The "Bradley Effect" was the rage for five minutes in explaining the Hillary comeback in New Hampshire. (It turned out that Obama’s poll number didn’t change, just that a huge number of women turned out to vote for Hillary.)

No, the new thing, the new explanation, is the Clinton explanation: blacks vote for blacks AND whites vote for whites. AND THERE’S NOTHING WRONG WITH IT. IT’S PERFECTLY NATURAL!

That was featured reporting/commentary on CNN last night, led by a black correspondent.

So, you see, now it’s O.K. to vote for the candidate’s race, not for the candidate. And in the Super Tuesday primaries, unlike in South Caroline, blacks will not be quite so influential.

So, all you white Democrats out there, Bill Clinton wants you to know its O.K. to vote white.

To his credit, Dick Morris predicted this would happen a few weeks back.
Written By: Martin McPhillips
So, you see, now it’s O.K. to vote for the candidate’s race, not for the candidate.
That’s only true in the primaries, not in the general election :)
Written By: Steverino
URL: http://
"Given expectations does Obama have to win by a significant percentage to get any momentum coming out of SC for Super Tuesday? If so what’s the percentage?"

Truthfully, I believe very few voters are actually undecided at this point. Most are at least leaning one way or another. If the past few states have proven anything, in both Dem and Rep races, it’s that the voters doesn’t much CARE what other states are saying this time around. What has changed are conflicting elements rallying around their associated candidates. If that’s true or not will be revealed in tonight’s exit polls - and, like you stated, any revelations there are more likely to shape the coming races than who actually comes in 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd.
Written By: COdude
URL: http://
vote for obama he only steals from blacks. love REZKO
Written By: ffggvb fffff
URL: http://

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