Posted by: Dale Franks
on Sunday, January 27, 2008
Playing with the QandO Electoral Vote Counter, I looked up some historical info. Looking over the last four elections, a number of states have voted for the same party in all elections since 1992.
The blue states have, of the most part, been solidly blue for the last 16 years. Thats a total of 248 electoral votes for a Democrat candidate right from the get-go. The solid red states total 135 electoral votes.
So, let's look, then, at states which have voted for the same party in 3 of the last 4 elections.
The remaining states in gray have split their votes between Republican and Democratic candidates voting D twice and R twice. They are the battleground states. Counting the leaners, however, Dems still lead 257-199 in electoral votes.
So, the worst-case scenario for the Democrat candidate is that 22 electoral votes are needed to put them over the top. Best case, based on historical votes, is that they are only 13 electoral votes short. All they need is a win in Ohio, or failing that, any of the two other eastern swing states.
In other words, Republicans have to win Ohio, and pretty much every other eastern state.
It really depends on the candidates, of course, but the Dems sure start out with an advantage.