Romney Cuts Ads? Obama Gets a Boost? Posted by: Dale Franks
on Wednesday, January 30, 2008
I don't know that a win for McCain in Florida necessarily delivers the Republican nomination to him. Lots of states to go, lots of delegates up for grabs. If this is true, however, Mitt Romney seems to be losing confidence.
In a major boost for McCain, Romney signaled earlier Wednesday that he's not ready to commit to a costly campaign in the states holding primaries and caucuses next week.
Several officials said that on the heels of a defeat in Tuesday's Florida primary, Romney's campaign was not attempting to purchase television advertising time in any of the states on the Super Tuesday calendar.
Instead, the former Massachusetts governor's current plans call for campaigning in California and other primary states, said the officials, who had knowledge of the internal discussions. There would be organizational efforts primarily for caucus states.
If Mitt Romney is cutting his ad buys in the Super Tuesday states, he's either supremely confident, or he doesn't want to throw away good money after bad in a losing effort.
I doubt it's the former.
McCain continues to pick up endorsements, with the newest scheduled to come in from Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, John Edwards' withdrawal,puts a lot of voters up for grabs. We'll soon find out whether they were more pro-Edwards, or anti-Clinton. If the latter, then Obama can expect a 10-point bump in his percentage totals. If it's more or less an even split, Obama probably loses the nomination.
Looking at the Demos of Edwards' voters, they tend to be rural, and they tend to be lower income. That's a closer match with Hillary Clinton's demo than Barack Obama's. That makes the Edwards drop-out interesting.
So, will Edwards make an endorsement of Obama, instead of Clinton? If so, will that endorsement make an impression on his constituency? We may soon know.
Barack Obama has now cut the gap with Hillary Clinton to 6 percentage points among Democrats nationally in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking three-day average, and interviewing conducted Tuesday night shows the gap between the two candidates is within a few points. Obama's position has been strengthening on a day-by-day basis. As recently as Jan. 18-20, Clinton led Obama by 20 points. Today's Gallup Poll Daily tracking is based on interviews conducted Jan. 27-29, all after Obama's overwhelming victory in South Carolina on Saturday. Two out of the three nights interviewing were conducted after the high-visibility endorsement of Obama by Sen. Edward Kennedy and his niece Caroline Kennedy.
Clinton's lead in the three-day average is now 42% to Obama's 36%. John Edwards, who dropped out of the race Wednesday after Gallup conducted these interviews, ended his quest for the presidency with 12% support. Wednesday night's interviewing will reflect the distribution of the vote choice of former Edwards' supporters as well as the impact, if any, of Hillary Clinton's popular vote win in Florida on Tuesday.
Obama had momentum going into Florida, but now there are opposing tensions in that momentum. A Clinton win in Florida is a psychological boost for her campaign. An Edwards drop-out changes the fundamental dynamic of the race.
So the tracking polls will probably need a day or two to settle down before the shakeout becomes clear.
Well let’s consider - why is Huckaby still in the race - to reduce the votes that Romney gets. No other reason he doesn’t even have a dark horse chance - but with him splitting off a portion of voters otherwise left with a choice of Romney over McCain - Romney loses to McCain.
Running mates - IMHO, if McCain picks either Thompson or Huckaby as VP he loses. His status as "Almost a Democrat, a real RINO" gets thrashed - so that means it’s almost certain he’ll pick Mr. Gushing endorsment - Giuliani - another RINO - to pull together the independents and leverage the high negative scores Hillary always gets and that Obama will soon get.
If this plays out as I expect that ticket is probably a safe (not sure) bet to take down either a Clinton or Obama ticket regardless of running mate. btw, McCains odds of surviving his Presidency, due to natural causes, is a real risk visible to those same middle of the road voters he appeals to, which is why he needs a similar middle of the road running mate. Plus as a VP candidate Giuliani’s skeletons tend to be left in the closet.