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Obamamentum Continues
Posted by: Dale Franks on Monday, February 11, 2008

If the polls are to be believed, tomorrow is shaping up as another bloodbath for Clinton in the Potomac Primaries. The RCP average of poll results show's Obama with a 18.7% lead in Virginia and an 22.3% lead in Maryland. No polling for DC that I can find, but what's the point, really? I think we all agree on how that one is gonna go. On Intrade, the futures market for Virginia gives the Obama Contract a price of 94.5¢ and Maryland 98.5¢.

Moving ahead to next week, there are primary contests in Wisconsin and Hawaii. I can't find any polling on those either, but I expect Hawaii to be a blow-out for Obama. My gut feeling is that Wisconsin is an Obama win, too, but I have no data to base that on. The general expectation, however, is that Clinton won't win either of the Feb 19 primaries.

As we've mentioned previously, the Clinton camp seems to have crafted a strategy of winning Ohio and Texas, then begging the superdelegates to crown her. Such a strategy depends on winning those states, but the intrade numbers show the "Obama Wins" contract with a 62¢ price for Ohio and a 60¢ price for Texas. Unfortunately, I can't find any polling for those states that aren't stale with age.

But the general movement towards Obama is continuing, and a string of uninterrupted victories, coming on top of a strong Super Tuesday showing, begins to make Hillary Clinton look like a loser, and may provide a noticeable "bandwagon effect" for Obama. Obama is already hitting Texas and Ohio with ads. He knows he stakes there, and losses in Ohio and Texas—losses that would doom any candidate not named Clinton—would leave Clinton with little choice other than to make a naked play for Superdelegate votes, in order to overcome Obama's lead in pledged delegates.

Or to drop out, of course, which any candidate not named Clinton would probably do. Ms. Clinton, however, will probably not go gently into that good night.

It's already clear, though where the conventional wisdom stands. The Intrade contract for Obama to be the eventual nominee is now priced at 70¢, with the Clinton contract at 30¢. The Rassmussen contract shows very similar results, with the Obama contract priced at 70¢, and the Clinton contract at 31.5¢.

You know, deep in his heart, Bill Clinton is undoubtedly thinking, "If I was the candidate I'd already have this sewn up by now." But, he isn't. And she doesn't.
 
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
Yes, he’s in pretty good shape. But if he’s going to stay in good shape, his dumba$$ campaign workers are going to need to avoid doing stupid stuff like this.

 
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
Which of the upcoming Dem states are winner-take-all, if any?
 
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
yeah. I saw that. Getting to it
 
Written By: Dale Franks
URL: http://www.qando.net
But Billy, dale... You forget who he’s trying to get votes from...

Liberals...

Che is like freaking Jesus to those people. He probably WANTS that pic out there. The lefties will rush at him like lemmings to a cliff...
 
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
Yes, he’s in pretty good shape. But if he’s going to stay in good shape, his dumba$$ campaign workers are going to need to avoid doing stupid stuff like this.
Luckily for him it’s during the primary season where it won’t hurt...and anyway, most Americans have no clue who Che is.

The Democrats moved away from winner take all awhile back, though I think Virginia has its apportioned by districts so a big Obama win there might became a large number of delegates. Clinton is definitely out if she loses either Texas or Ohio — and the superdelegates are already signalling they don’t want to somehow deny the will if Obama has a clear lead. Hillary isn’t that good a candidate, and her strategy of experience (I’m not sure where she gets the claim she has experience, but...) and ’competence’ would have functioned in 2004 when there was still fear about 9-11. But now people want change and are deeply cynical, so Obama and McCain (and Huckabee, actually) speak more strongly to that mood. Huckabee may still have some life left in him too — which might be good for McCain, keeping some focus on the GOP and not just Obama.
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
Che is like freaking Jesus to those people. He probably WANTS that pic out there. The lefties will rush at him like lemmings to a cliff
No

Even among liberals, that is a losing proposition. You would lose 1000 people for every moron that was attracted to that psycho (Guevara).

Obama may try to ignore this, or he may make a statement, but the statement will be a clear message of disapproval of Guevara. If he made a statement that was even slightly equivocating, he would drop down to the teens in national polls before the Texas primaries even happened.

 
Written By: Captin Sarcastic
URL: http://
Sarcastic — I wish that were true but that’s not my impression. Who’s buying all those Che T-shirts? I agree with Prof. Erb on this one: most Americans have no clue about Che.

And no way is Obama going to address this.
 
Written By: huxley
URL: http://
Obama is a uniter. "Together we can go from Big Government to even BIGGER government! Together we can go ALL the way down the Road to Serfdom!"
 
Written By: Bilwick
URL: http://
Lets not forget Hillary’s soon to come crusade to seat the FI-MI delagates she "won"

Between that, Superdelegates, and whatever else she can manipulate, she’ll be working every angle to squeak by
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
Seriously, how many people in the general public know anything about Che? They might recognize the image, but that’s about it.
Lets not forget Hillary’s soon to come crusade to seat the FI-MI delagates she "won"
To have any chance Hillary has to win Texas AND Ohio decisively, and use that as a way to turn around the campaign, win Pennsylvania and head into the convention with the pledged delegate count very close, and with her having momentum.

Because while I understand that some of you think the Democratic party is run by morons, it would be an act of political insanity to simply let Hillary do some kind of behind the scenes deal to get nominated. She’s not that powerful; the party establishment will back whoever can unite the party and give them a chance of victory. If they think it’s Obama, they’ll go there (though it will be interesting if Florida and Michigan are told they can hold caucuses to get a delegate slate chosen...)
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
Because while I understand that some of you think the Democratic party is run by morons,
Dean, Reid and Pelosi provide confirmation of that!

it would be an act of political insanity to simply let Hillary do some kind of behind the scenes deal to get nominated
Heh.....you act like they may have a choice in the matter.

 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
Boris:
Because while I understand that some of you think the Democratic party is run by morons,
Pretty close to morons, but not as safely so as yourself, Boris.
it would be an act of political insanity to simply let Hillary do some kind of behind the scenes deal to get nominated. She’s not that powerful; the party establishment will back whoever can unite the party and give them a chance of victory. If they think it’s Obama, they’ll go there (though it will be interesting if Florida and Michigan are told they can hold caucuses to get a delegate slate chosen...)
Obama is going to try to argue that the superdelegates should follow him because it’s the "will of the people" while arguing that Florida and Michigan should not count. Sounds a lot like the Gore strategy in Florida in 2000: "We want a full and complete recount in the four counties where we are likely to pick up votes from the margin of error. Let the voice of the people be heard!"

Alternately, (if I’m hearing Boris’s recitation of the latest Obama talking points correctly) Obama will consent to a do over in Florida and Michigan on the presumption that the Obama wave will sweep those delegates into his camp.

If the Clintons let Obama get away with either strategy they’re insane.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://mcphillips.blogspot.com/

 
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