Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, February 12, 2008 Hillary Clinton is basing the success of her primary campaign on the primaries in Texas and Ohio. But the Texas primary is, as you might expect, a bird of a different color (and why shouldn't it be - it's Texas for heaven sake). First, it is actually 32 separate elections: Texas will send a total of 228 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. 126 delegates will be assigned based on primary results in 31 State Senate Districts (instead of allocating delegates by its 32 Congressional Districts like many states). The number of delegates in each Senate district varies based on previous Democratic turnout in the last two general elections. The delegates from each Senate District are assigned to candidates proportionally based on the percentages they receive on primary day.So the results from each State Senate district will be tallied and the delegates assigned to that district proportioned per the vote. Obviously, I think it is safe to say Hillary Clinton will not sweep the 31 districts in question. That takes care of 126 of the 228 delegates. What about the other 102? Well, it's caucus time: Of the remaining 102 delegates, 67 are determined through a convention process that begins at precinct conventions (caucuses) on the night of March 4 and culminates with delegate allocation based on each candidate's delegate strength at the State Convention on June 6-8. Of those 67 delegates, 42 are "at large" rank and file delegates and 25 are pledged party leaders, legislators, and local elected officials.Key points? Caucuses and allocation in June. The remaining delegates? Superdelegates: The remaining 35 delegates are "unpledged" delegates, including 32 so-called "superdelegates" who are DNC Members, Members of Congress, a former House Speaker and a former DNC Chair. Three other delegate slots are reserved for highly-honored state Democrats, such as respected former officeholders.So as I read it, 126 will be assigned on the night of March 4 based on the 31 votes in the State Senate districts. And although they won't be official, I think we can probably fairly well assign the 102 who will be allocated in June (it might change a bit with future primaries, but at this moment you can look at a pretty even split). And the Super Delegates? Well, who knows, but I think it is safe to say that given the races to this point, Obama will do well enough in Texas that Clinton will have a tough time claiming a significant number of delegates on him - and that's the name of the game now - not popular votes, but delegates. |
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