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The Quadrennial Running of the Potomac Stakes
Posted by: Dale Franks on Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Race those horsies! Race them! And, as we move into the backstretch, the numbers look like this, from Real Clear Politics:

Total Delegates12721231
Pledged Delegates1116989
Popular Vote9,326,0798,638,911
Popular Vote (w/FL)9,902,2939,509,897
Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)9,942,3759,860,138
National RCP Average44.6%44.3%
Total Delegates819240
National RCP Average48.0%28.2%
General ElectionDemocratsRepublicans
Obama vs. McCainObama 47.7McCain 43.7
Clinton vs. McCainClinton 45.3McCain 46.7

A couple of things jump out at me.

First, in pledged delegates, it's difficult to see how Clinton can end up with the most pledged delegates in the states that are left. As NBC News runs the numbers:
The NBC News election unit hard count stands at 1078 to 969. If you factor in the unallocated pledged delegates, our estimate rises to approximately 1128 to 1009 in Obama's favor (margin of error +/- 5 delegates). Toss in the superdelegates and Obama's lead is 1306 to 1270 (again +/- 5 delegates). What does this mean? For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead — which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote — she'll have to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama's way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57%. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then Clinton's percentage need tops 60% of the remaining delegates available. And this is simply for her to regain the pledged delegate lead.
In other words, to go into the convention with more pledged delegates than Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton must win all of the remaining primaries with 55% of the vote, which hardly seems likely. If Obama wins the states he's expected to, then Hillary must win 60% of the delegates in the states she does win. That seems even less likely. In fact, it looks nearly impossible for her to regain the lead in pledged delegates, absent a complete collapse of the Obama Campaign.

She really does have to pin her hopes on the superdelegates, and she has to hope that they'll give her their votes even if she has fewer delegates than Obama.

Second, I'm not sure that's good news since all the current indications are that Obama will siphon off enough independent voters to defeat John McCain this fall. At this point, Hillary looks like the weakest candidate in the November election, and Obama looks like the strongest.

"President Obama." You may want to get used to the sound of that.

I've already added the words "Barack" and "Obama" to my spell-check dictionaries.

Finally, what does Mike Huckabee think he's doing? It is literally impossible for him to win the nomination. To do so would require that he win 123% of the remaining delegates. Conversely, McCain can do so by winning only 35% of the remaining delegates, which is way under the general expectation. The only possible explanation I can see is that he thinks there's a chance that McCain won't get the delegates required for a first-ballot nomination, and that the convention will settle on him as a compromise candidate, since he's the only one remaining in the race against McCain.

But how does he expect McCain to come up short in the delegate count? By what sophistry of reason does he think he has a chance to take 65%+ of the remaining delegates and deny McCain a first-ballot nomination? If McCain walks in with 1192 delegates, it's over.

Does he think we're only days away from McCain losing it at some public event and begin railing against the Freemasons and the Illuminati? Or, is he just trying to set himself up for a 1012 run against Obama?

It's mystifying.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Obama has obviously got the nomination

But he has waaaaay to many skeltons in the closet to even to get close to winning the general election.

Check this out
Written By: emmess
URL: http://
I think Obama wins the general. Everyone will be deferential to him in the press and the feelgood factor carries the day. Then once he is in, he will scare the daylights out of the conservatives because he will get a longer than usual honeymoon and pass all manner of garbage.

Oh, and he will have coattails.

2012 he will be hard to defeat unless he is Carter II. However, he is going to be a rock star and his international visits will be heavily covered and full of fawning crowds. Vote Democrat and make people love America again will be the "lesson" the media teaches us.

If there’s a big recession magnified by his actions, or a foreign policy blow up, then he might be a one term president. But I doubt it.

Written By: Harun
URL: http://
Huckabee quitting less than a week after Romney quit is too obvious, imho. He needs a week and then some to make it look like he wasn’t there just to block a Mormon.

He’s also hoping to burn in name recognition for 2012/2016, right now Mitt has that position.
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
emmess — The Obama File has much good and surprising detail. There are a lot of red flags there, so to speak. However, given the general euphoria Obama can generate, I don’t know that they are enough to knock him out of the general election. It seems the whole point of Obama’s campaign is to ignore content and go with feelings.

As an ex-progressive, I know much of the worldview Obama grew up with and lives in still, judging by his black identity church. It’s more radically anti-American than Obama’s voters realize. If they were made aware of this, it might make a difference, but those bringing it up will be easily branded as racists or McCarthyites or some such, and the media will largely avoid these issues.
Written By: huxley
URL: http://
If there’s a big recession magnified by his actions, or a foreign policy blow up, then he might be a one term president. But I doubt it.
Haven’t you been following the news? "President Obama today signed the Keep America Prosperous Act extending unemployment benefits to 4 years as a result of the 2nd recession caused by the polocies of the Bush administration."
Written By: Ryan
URL: http://
If Obama makes the general, there’s no way he won’t win it, unless something horribly damaging comes out (probably released by a spiteful Clintonista)

I predict lots of people are going to be tarred with the "racist" tag once Obama becomes the nominee.

But who cares if his policies drag us down (and make no mistake- they sure will) The world will love America again! Of course, the world only loves us when they think we’re weak.

Written By: shark
URL: http://
I’d have a lot more respect for if they hadn’t lifted the entire text of their account of the Cuban flag in the Houston volunteer office from my post of Monday. And they did so without any attribution whatsoever.

They simply copied and pasted a portion of my post.

Plagiarists irk me.
Written By: Dale Franks
So how can McCain beat Obama? Do we just give up and accept 4-8 years of Obama?
Written By: huxley
URL: http://
Oh, I think that the Republicans can beat the hell out of Obama.

They can beat the hell out of the McGovern and Dukakis and Carter in him.

They can show him in incessant self-parody.

They can make it so that by time Labor Day comes around he looks as dead as Bob Dole in ’96.

The only problem for the GOP is that McCain might not want to do that.

I honestly think that Obama’s pronounced messianic populism will get very old, but the GOP has to see to it that it gets old good and proper and early.

If Obama maintains a lead after Labor Day (his negatives should be up around or over 50% by that time if he’s properly worked over) then you’ve got to take the gloves off. That after Labor Day period is when voters start to pay attention, but Obama’s popularity should be cooled way down before then.

McCain maintains a consistent crustiness. Obama crumbles to the status of a Leftist punk.

But like I said, McCain may not want to win the election that way.

This all assumes that Obama actually upsets the Clintons for the nomination, which I will believe when I see it.

I’ve always thought that Hillary is the tougher candidate to beat, and that Obama would be much easier. I just think that it will be terrible for this country if Obama is the nominee, because it is a lie that what he is about is racial reconciliation. He will be the most racially divisive figure since Malcolm X, who I believe is his real role model.
Written By: Martin McPhillips
Martin — Thanks for the buck-up. I sure hope that Obama’s messiah worship won’t last the summer. I feel like I’m watching "A Face in the Crowd" (a great forgotten Elia Kazan film) where Andy Griffith plays a country rascal who parlays his aw-shucks persona into a radio show, a tv show, then national celebrity and almost a cabinet position.

I think Obama is playing a stealth Malcolm X.
Written By: huxley
URL: http://
Well, I think that you can already see a subtle shift in the Obama campaign, at least in the covereage I’m seeing on MSNBC, which has become the Obama channel.

He seems to be shifting from the candidate who happens to be black to the black candidate with a "this is out thing" aura. This is "our time."

If that is what is happening and it continues, the theme could turn quickly from "unity" to "get out of our way."

At this point, if Obama doesn’t get the nomination, there’s going to be strong resentment welling up. If he doesn’t win the presidency it will become more than resentment. If he wins the presidency it will become racial triumphalism.

This is, I suspect, inherent to Obama (who, I repeat, is not about racial reconciliation, except perhaps if it is a dictated reconciliation), but also inherent to what the Democratic Party has become. The whole thing has already become the usual walking on eggshells thing that they do around anything involving race. It has nowhere to go from there but to worse.
Written By: Martin McPhillips

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