Is Clinton’s Firewall...Firewalling?
Posted by: Dale Franks
on Monday, February 18, 2008
Hillary Clinton's strategy of making Ohio and Texas her "firewall" states may be working out. The RCP polling averages for the upcoming primaries are given below.
Wisconsin is too close to call, since the results fall well within the margin of error. But Ohio and Texas are looking like probable wins for Clinton. The Rasmussen political markets show the contracts for Clinton to win in Ohio and Texas are at 61.8¢ and 55¢ respectively. Similarly, Intrade's markets for the same states show the "Clinton wins" contracts at 58.5¢ for Ohio and 48.3¢ for Texas. (The TX number is a bit odd, however, because even though the last trade was 48.3, the bid is 50.2 and the ask is 59.9. So, even the bid price is above the last trade price.) Pennsylvania, however, is still barely on Obama's side, with the Intrade contract for Obama winning at 52.2¢.
So, at best for Obama, the indications are for a squeaker in Wisconsin, and a loss in Ohio and Texas. Those are big changes from last week. But, we've got a few weeks to go, too, so we might see those changes reverse.
Of course, the only poll that counts is the one that takes place on election day. We'll be watching them closely.