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Looking down the road to November
Posted by: McQ on Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Rasmussen has a first look at how the November election shapes up at this juncture. As you'll be able to see, the Republicans really have their work cut out for them:
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently projects 154 Electoral Votes as “Safely Democratic,” 94 Electoral Votes as “Likely Democratic” and 36 Electoral Votes as “Leans Democratic.”

On the other side of the aisle, 178 Electoral Votes are projected as “Safely Republican,” 11 are projected as “Likely Republican” and 27 are projected as “Leans Republican.”

Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).

Likely Democratic: Delaware (3), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10).

Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), and Ohio (20).

Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), and Virginia (13).

Leans Republican: Florida (27)

Likely Republican: Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5)

Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), and Wyoming (3).
To stop a Democratic victory (270 electoral votes), Republicans must take all of their states, all the "toss up" states and a combination of states (or a single state) from the Dem side with 15 or more electoral votes.

Taking a state with 16 or more plus the toss ups and holding all of theirs will give the Reps a win. The most obvious state for them to go after is Ohio.

So, as it stands at this moment, your battleground states are Ohio (again), Nevada, Missouri, Colorado and Virginia

Anyway, you can play with this scenario using the nifty Electoral Vote Counter Dale put together.
 
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"your battleground states are Ohio (again), Nevada, Missouri, Colorado and Virginia"

...and Florida. If the Dems take their safe and likely states, Florida would push them over without winning a single leaning Democratic state.

 
Written By: Is
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