Posted by: McQ on Monday, March 17, 2008 Conventional wisdom seems to believe that a Nader candidacy would only pull a very paltry vote, mainly because of the attractiveness of the Democratic candidates, somewhere around 1%. But a new Zogby poll throws a little cold water on that small percentage: Ralph Nader's just-starting presidential campaign is bragging today about a poll released over the weekend that showed that he consumer activist and political gadfly would get 6 percent of the vote in a three-way race with Republican John McCain (45 percent) and Democrat Hillary Clinton (39 percent) and would get 5 percent in a contest with McCain (44 percent) and Democrat Barack Obama (39 percent).Now add the usual disclaimers (a poll in March vs. November, etc., etc.), but understand that in reality such a number has other effects which, without the high percentage, don't happen: "The messages to Democrats are clear — number one, Nader may win enough support to get into the general election debates. Number two, what could be at risk is support among several key constituencies that the Democratic Party candidate will need to win in November, notably younger voters, independents, and progressives."Of course, on the other side of this, having Nader on stage with either of the possible Democratic nominees makes them look almost centrist. OTOH, McCain wouldn't be the oldest person in the debate. And it would certainly would have a tendency to derail the planned 'civil debate' between collegial Senators, that's for sure. All in all, another wildcard in the most interesting and entertaining presidential campaign in my memory. |
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