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Could Nader actually be a factor in November?
Posted by: McQ on Monday, March 17, 2008

Conventional wisdom seems to believe that a Nader candidacy would only pull a very paltry vote, mainly because of the attractiveness of the Democratic candidates, somewhere around 1%. But a new Zogby poll throws a little cold water on that small percentage:
Ralph Nader's just-starting presidential campaign is bragging today about a poll released over the weekend that showed that he consumer activist and political gadfly would get 6 percent of the vote in a three-way race with Republican John McCain (45 percent) and Democrat Hillary Clinton (39 percent) and would get 5 percent in a contest with McCain (44 percent) and Democrat Barack Obama (39 percent).

Nader's support is enough to make a difference, and he takes more voters away from Democrats, according to Zogby International, which conducted the survey on March 13 and 14 (it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points).
Now add the usual disclaimers (a poll in March vs. November, etc., etc.), but understand that in reality such a number has other effects which, without the high percentage, don't happen:
"The messages to Democrats are clear — number one, Nader may win enough support to get into the general election debates. Number two, what could be at risk is support among several key constituencies that the Democratic Party candidate will need to win in November, notably younger voters, independents, and progressives."
Of course, on the other side of this, having Nader on stage with either of the possible Democratic nominees makes them look almost centrist. OTOH, McCain wouldn't be the oldest person in the debate. And it would certainly would have a tendency to derail the planned 'civil debate' between collegial Senators, that's for sure.

All in all, another wildcard in the most interesting and entertaining presidential campaign in my memory.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

I think that if Obama gets the nomination (and I think he will), Nader will be running to his left. There isn’t much room on that flank, and the people that Nader does draw in are going to be of the moon bat wing of the party. I can’t see him drawing enough votes to make a difference.
Written By: Tim M
URL: http://
All in all, another wildcard in the most interesting and entertaining presidential campaign in my memory
But the Punchline sucks.
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
A question:

When Nader ran in ’04, weren’t the Democrats able to bar Nader’s name from the Presidential ballot?

If this is true, what’s to stop them from doing so again in ’08. More importantly, how is it legally possible for Democrats to achieve this?
Written By: JasperPants
URL: http://
the people that Nader does draw in are going to be of the moon bat wing of the party
That’s not an insignificant bloc. Regardless, it would be interesting to see where Nader was polling before the Wright episode.
Written By: Is
URL: http://

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