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Dem Primary: How divisive is it?
Posted by: McQ on Friday, March 21, 2008

Well, if you believe the latest Franklin & Marshall poll (pdf), pretty divisive. Like 20% divisive if PA is any indication:
As Democratic Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York slug it out for the nomination, many of their supporters — at least in Pennsylvania, site of the next major primary — aren't committed to the party's ticket in November, according to a Franklin & Marshall College Poll.

Among Obama supporters, 20 percent said they would vote for Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee, if Clinton beats their candidate for the nomination. Among Clinton supporters, 19 percent said they would support McCain in November if Obama is the Democratic nominee.
See the top of page 12 in the poll for those numbers.

McCain is probably enjoying the time off while touring the world and acting presidential. No need for him to get involved other than a brief flurry of shots at either candidate to keep his name in the news. But as the old saying goes, why murder your opponents when they're busy committing suicide?

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Previous Comments to this Post 

Kind of a variation on Napoleon Bonaparte’s advice to never interrupt your opponent while he’s making a mistake.
Written By: Bryan Pick
I swear, this year is just so damned entertaining...
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
It’s amazing what $800 million can buy these days.
Written By: Neo
URL: http://
I still think McCain is the odds on favorite to win, but (as I speculate in my own blog today) Obama’s deft handling of the mini-scandal involving Rev. Wright is making me think that he may be a Democrat version of Reagan. Not sure yet, but I think his opponents should be wary of underestimating him (Clinton already and look where she is). That says nothing about his qualifications or suitability for the job, I’m talking only in terms of the political horse race.
Written By: Scott Erb
McCain is probably enjoying the time off while touring the world and acting presidential.
If by presidential, you mean in the Bush-like sense, then yes, he is acting presidential. After all, not knowing the difference between a Shiite and a Sunni is about as Bush as one can get.

BTW, why should the American taxpayer have to pay for this glorified campaign trip? And I know they are calling it a fact finding tour. But if that’s the case, wouldn’t you think he would actually learn some, you know, facts?
Written By: mkultra
URL: http://
After all, not knowing the difference between a Shiite and a Sunni is about as Bush as one can get.
Please tell me that isn’t true, that McCain didn’t know the difference between Shi’ite and Sunni. Because frankly, at this point, that kind of lack of knowledge by a high official is almost criminal.
Written By: Scott Erb
Obama’s deft handling of the mini-scandal involving Rev. Wright...
I’d say that the jury is out on that. His speech fares poorly under additional readings and further analysis. It was obvious early on that Obama’s church would be a problem and Obama did nothing to get ahead of it (not a good quality when one looks for executive leadership), and when he did start to deal with it, his efforts to minimize the problem made it look like he was lying to those paying attention.

From glancing around the web, what I see is that Obama stopped the bleeding but didn’t recover from the wound.

Maybe this does blow over with time, but I doubt it, especially when the 527s get their at-bats in the fall.
Written By: huxley
URL: http://
I’d say that the jury is out on that.
Only in a small quarter of the right wing blogosphere and punditry. But in the real world, Obama’s speech is likely to be compared to Martin Luther King, and read by future generations. It got Bill Richardson to endorse him at a time when that really matters, and Obama appears to be rising in the polls. To pretend the jury’s out given the massive response to THE SPEECH simply is out of touch with reality. Obama hit a home run. It may not be enough to battle residual racism, which I think probably will doom his campaign — a lot of whites just won’t vote for a black man with his name. But he’s taken the discourse a notch up, addressed the real questions and issues (not the petty ones like ’what did hear Rev. Wright say exactly), and this will be remembered. This was history being made.
Written By: Scott Erb
Prof Erb — Cites?
Among those who have seen or heard some of the speech, 51% said it was good or excellent, 26% said fair, and 21% gave the Senator’s remarks a grade of poor.
And according to Rasmussen, Obama’s "unfavorable" rating has marched upward steadily from 44% to 51%, with the speech causing that trend to slow at best.

(Among registered voters)
Now 3/15-18/08
Favorable 43% 44%
Unfavorable 30 28
Haven’t heard 26 28
Despite the positive marks Obama receives for his speech, views of his ability to unite the country have declined compared to a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted in February. Now, 52% of voters say he would unite the country if he becomes president; in February, before the March 4th primaries, 67% thought he would do that.
None of this sounds like a home run to me, and as to whether people are "likely"—as you put it—to fawn over this speech in the future, I still say "the jury is out."
Written By: huxley
URL: http://

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