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Is there an argument for a Clinton nomination?
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Peter Daou, Hillary Clinton's "Internet Director" uses the Huff Po as a platform to argue that three myths circulating about the primary are untrue.

First he takes issue with the 'myth' that Obama is running a "positive" campaign and is the candidate to 'unite' and instead describes the "full assault" on Clinton's character and provides examples.

He then asks:
If Sen. Obama really is the prohibitive favorite some say he is, these negative attacks make absolutely no sense. Why would a frontrunner seek to attack and divide? If Sen. Obama can't unify Democrats in a primary, how can he unify Americans in a general election?
Of course all of this ignores the attacks on Obama by the Clinton campaign and, for some, the hard learned lesson of presidential campaigns that one does not let such attacks go unanswered. In presidential politics silence is not golden.

But this does provide a convenient avenue of attack for opponents when a candidate claims to be above the fray and then fights back. And it certainly comes as no surprise that the Clinton campaign is doing so.

Daou then disputes the "math" that says she can't win. He claims it is "an extremely close race that either candidate can win."
"The Math" is actually very simple: with hundreds of delegates still uncommitted, NEITHER candidate has reached the number of delegates required to secure the nomination. And EITHER candidate can reach the required number in the coming weeks and months. That is indisputable. No amount of editorials, articles, blog posts, charts, graphs, calculations, formulas, or projections will change the basic fact that either candidate can win. Pundits who confidently proclaim that Hillary has no hope of winning because of "the math," have counted Hillary out of this race three times before. Each time they based their sober assessments on 'facts' and 'realities' — and each time they were wrong.
Have they been wrong or has it simply been a matter of Clinton refusing to quit even with the numbers so seemingly stacked against her? What Daou never touches in his "math" is a scenario where she can mathematically catch and surpass him.

He instead insists that Clinton's resilience and character make her the best choice for Democrats in the general election. Not a compelling argument when one looks at the numbers and the remaining primaries. Unless Clinton runs the table by wide margins in those remaining primaries Daou's "math" claims seem fanciful at best.

The last "myth" Daou tackles is that for Clinton to win, the super delegates must "overturn the will of the people". Daou contends the "fact" is that the race is all but tied the will of the people is split and that both candidates need the super delegates to win.

Daou makes the point that 'by virtually every measure, Hillary and Sen. Obama are neck and neck — separated by less than 130 of the more than 3,100 delegates committed thus far and less than 1% of the 27 million+ votes cast, including Florida and Michigan. Less than 1%.'

While that's all true, the fact remains that Clinton is on the bad side of all those numbers. And, unfortunately for Clinton, FL and MI don't count. So while it depends on how you define "virtually tied" the fact remains that Obama leads in both committed delegates and popular vote.

It is also fact that polls have shown that the vast majority of Democrats want the super delegates to vote "the will of the people". In fact, if that's how they do vote, and base their vote on the will of the people as reflected by the popular vote and the committed delegate count, they will indeed choose Obama.

The Clinton argument is that she displays the characteristics most necessary to win a general election despite the "will of the people" she is who the super delegates should choose. Again not a compelling argument in the face of the "numbers". To me, the most compelling argument Clinton can make is her performance in the big states and battle-ground states v. Obama. That makes a better case for her selection than the tact Daou takes.

Negative campaigning, denying the reality of the 'math' and claiming the best course for the super delegates is to ignore the 'will of the people' don't seem the best way to make a case for a Clinton nomination. The best and only course, as I see it, is to somehow convince the super delegates that she is the one who can pull the necessary states in a general election to win. And while that's a tough argument, it at least has some demonstrable basis in fact.
 
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The biggest myth is that Clinton now, or has ever given a damn about the will of the people.... Or, that Obama has, either, for that matter.


 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
The Clinton strategy, as it appears to be unfolding, is to get as close as possible in primary and caucus delegates and hope that by the late spring or early summer, before the convention, it becomes obvious that Obama is not suited to be President of the United States, which will make it impossible for superdelegates to vote for him. They will want to force him out of the race before the convention, in a move similar to how Spitzer was forced out as governor of New York.

That will mitigate the violence already being threatened for the convention in Denver, and it will give black voters an opportunity to consider that Obama is, in fact, unsuited for the presidency, and would be as much a mistake for black America as for the country as a whole, thus opening the door to reconciliation with the Clintons.

If the nomination goes to a fight at the convention, all hell could, probably will, break loose, and that will include violence that would likely be racial and could spread to several major cities.

If the Democratic Party had any spine of its own, and it doesn’t of course, it would force both Hillary and Obama out of the contest — there are as many or more reasons why she’s unsuited to be president — and then present a leadership picked slate of candidates to the convention. It would be old-fashioned backroom politics, but here is a case where it would be preferable and could actually save the party.

Right now, however, the Clintons are holding the ace, which is Obama’s 20-year membership in that church. The facts about that are circulating rapidly, even into the minds of Democratic leaders who haven’t had a straight thought in decades.

The notion that the black equivalent of a white candidate who belonged to a Christian Identity church having the Party’s nomination will be more than even the morally and intellectually corrupt Democrats can reconcile. And if they allow it to go to the convention unresolved it will have implications far beyond the internal politics of the Democrats.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://mcphillips.blogspot.com/
Hillary certainly does have an argument for nomination. Between the Obama slippage over his pastor and his probable blowout in PA, there is an argument that Obama is going to be unelectable in the general.

The problem is that for her to win, it is going to take either a nasty floor fight, or backroom politics- either of which will lead to a pretty bad split in the party.

Hillary’s best bet is strong showings in the remaining contests, while Obama trends downward (of course, she hurts her own standing when she out and out lies about running under sniper fire, but McCain will never call her on it, and Obama needs to keep his racist yap shut for a bit)
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
Hillary will be on the ticket in Nov.

The Clintons have too much knowledge of too many skeletons that they will hold over people’s heads and they will stop at nothing to get back the power they believe is theirs by right.
 
Written By: retired military
URL: http://
retired military:
The Clintons have too much knowledge of too many skeletons that they will hold over people’s heads and they will stop at nothing to get back the power they believe is theirs by right.
I agree with that, but that is one of the reasons there has been such a revolt against them within the Party ranks.

The Party is corrupt and the Clintons hold the keys to the vault where all that corruption is stored away for a rainy day.

That’s probably why, when Obama started to get a positive response from voters, so many big Democrats, like Ted Kennedy, began to signal a shift. Typically, they made no serious inquiries into Obama, he was "clean and articulate" enough for them and allowed them to satisfy the yearnings of their moral vanity.

But this thing is now way more complicated than the Clintons and their hold on the skeletons. I don’t think of it as being "interesting," but rather much more along the lines of filling me with dread.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://mcphillips.blogspot.com/
Anyone know how this yahoo felt about FL going to Bush in Y2K? I’m guessing it was somewhat different...
 
Written By: meagain
URL: http://
I believe that if Clinton goes into the convention with any type of majority in the popular vote, including Michigan and Florida, then, she has a strong case. This is definitely not outside the realm of possibility. She can then immediately turn the superdelegate discussion around on Obama. Should the pledged and superdelegates overturn the will of the people? Who should the superdelegates follow, convention delegates or the majority of voting Democrats? Plus, she did beat him in the states Democrats have to carry. They’re not going to carry the Deep South. I believe there are some (Richardson et al) that make it sound more futile than it actually is, because they don’t want to see the bloodbath coming at the convention.
 
Written By: Is
URL: http://
I agree with that, but that is one of the reasons there has been such a revolt against them within the Party ranks.

The Party is corrupt and the Clintons hold the keys to the vault where all that corruption is stored away for a rainy day.
And there it is... the real truth of he matter. What is interesting here is that it’s not the corruption that bothers the Democrt rank and file, but the idea that someone would USE that information for their own gain.

Tells us something about democrats in general, I think.


 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
Eric:
What is interesting here is that it’s not the corruption that bothers the Democrt rank and file, but the idea that someone would USE that information for their own gain.
It reminds me of John Polito’s crime-boss character in "Miller’s Crossing" complaining about the lack of ethics in the crime business.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://mcphillips.blogspot.com/
Doesn’t it, though?

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
Here, by the way, is one of the organizations making plans for the Democratic convention in Denver.

If you scroll down a bit, on the left side you’ll see a list of "allies," similar organizations getting ready.

This, I believe, is why the Clintons must get Obama out of the race before the convention. All of this stuff will otherwise be aimed at them "cheating" (or should that be just plain cheating) to get the nomination.

The irony is, of course, that Obama has been cheating all along by hiding his black nationalist anchorage while playing at being a racial reconciliationist.

Which in turn is why the Clintons will have no inclination to surrendur and get out of the race themselves. They actually have the stronger case to make.

I’ll repeat that I believe a Democratic Party with any spine would force them both out.

And, if you haven’t seen the video about Hillary’s heroic trip to Bosnia as First Lady, you really are missing the laugh of the week, so far.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://mcphillips.blogspot.com/
RCP’s Democratic popular vote totals

Real Clear Politics has a great compilation of the Democratic popular vote so far, and breaks down different combinations, counting or ignoring Florida and Michigan.

 
Written By: Steverino
URL: http://
The democrats have been hoisted by their own petard.

The super delegates are meant to counter the "will of the people" should the electorate nominate an non-viable candidate. If the super delegates were forced to cast their ballot in accordance with the popular vote, caucus, or primary, it would defeat their purpose. The fact that democrats devised a method to override their voters, should concern their rank and file. They apparently believe that their elite are smarter than their registered voters.

The current situation is that Hillary can’t win without the urban black vote. If she cuts a deal to keep Barack off the ticket, she will not win in November. If Barack keeps the Florida and Michigan electors from being seated, retired democrats and blue collar workers will feel disenfranchised and stay home or vote for McCain. Neither is going to drop out until they know their campaign has no chance of winning.

The July convention in Denver will be one to TiVo.
 
Written By: Arch
URL: http://
"Neither is going to drop out until they know their campaign has no chance of winning.
"

Hillary will not "Drop out", they will have to physically haul her off the stage at the convention and you will see fingernail marks in the floor on the stage if she lost. But she wont lose and she will be on the ticket in Nov. Come hook, crook, or Obama will take a long walk off a short pier in a park where he this pistol magically appears in his hand despite his 24 hour sercet service protection (Hillary will call it a tragedy, a vast right wing plot, and her rallying cry will be "We will win this one for the Obama man" - do you put it past her?).




 
Written By: retired military
URL: http://
Hillary will call it a tragedy, a vast right wing plot, and her rallying cry will be "We will win this one for the Obama man" - do you put it past her?
Will Obama then be known throughout history as the Vince Foster of the 21st Century? Uh oh, did I really write that one?
 
Written By: SShiell
URL: http://
Watching Hillary today, and over the past week, I see that she has really calmed down. She has incorporated yet another new demeanor. This one very self-confident, very self-assured. She’s acting as though she is the nominee already.

I think that she knows that Obama has no way out of the Wright mess, and that in each successive iteration it will only get worse. Never better.

She really shrugged off getting caught with that fake Bosnia story. They could dig up Vince Foster and find one of her fingernails lodged in his behind and it doesn’t appear that it would phase her now.

She has her eye on the light at the end of the tunnel.

Now, stepping back for a moment and looking around, I can’t help but think again about Eliot Spitzer, first because of the difference shown in his case between thinking that you are above the law and, as in the case of the Clintons, being able to prove it.

The next thing about the Spitzer case was the high visibility and speed of the takedown. It’s a bit mysterious, that an egomaniac of that dimension seemed to have no fight in him.

One wonders exactly what’s around the bend for the Obama train, the church and the pastor thing aside. And it is the look I’ve been seeing on Hillary Clinton’s face that makes me wonder about that.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://mcphillips.blogspot.com/
They could dig up Vince Foster and find one of her fingernails lodged in his behind and it doesn’t appear that it would phase her now.
Then again, that counts as at least one reason for Vince to eat a bullet. She could use that in her defense . . .
 
Written By: Don
URL: http://
Don:
Then again, that counts as at least one reason for Vince to eat a bullet. She could use that in her defense . . .
If the definition of black humor is joking about what is no joke because it’s just too horribly real, then that is black humor.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://mcphillips.blogspot.com/
Watching Hillary today, and over the past week, I see that she has really calmed down. She has incorporated yet another new demeanor. This one very self-confident, very self-assured. She’s acting as though she is the nominee already.
She knows it’s gone, and she has naught left to lose.
I’ve seen people who were dying from something or another, act the same way.

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us

 
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