Posted by: McQ on Friday, March 28, 2008 A short note as today in my other life is the last day of my company's fiscal year, so as you can imagine, I'm up to my ears in end-of-year fun. I simply haven't been able to give the situation in Iraq as much attention as I'd like. Some quick observations about what I have been able to gleen. Observation one: This was inevitable. Whether or not this was the time for Maliki to actually do what had to be done is another argument completely. But you can't have two sheriffs in town. At some point, the shia militias had to be confronted. Given the situation in Basra, with rival militias vying for power, it seems a reasonable place to start. Protests and demonstrations by thousands in Sadr city should come as no surprise to anyone. Observation two: Reports that some Iraqi troops/police are switching sides. Again, I'm not particularly surprised to see some of that happening - especially among police. The pregnant question has always been where the loyalty of some troops/police lay. The obvious intent of part the training is to instill a sense of nation in the Iraqi troops. Obviously it is something which some will buy into and others won't. I think it is to be something to be aware of, but it is also important to monitor how many are doing that. Observation three: There are reports that US units are beginning to take the lead. One of the things I've been reading about is the size and configuration of the ISF forces, and it appears it may not be adequate to the task in Basra if left on their own. That's one of the reasons US air is supporting the effort. The situation is confused, so I want to be clear that what I'm saying is the result of a fairly cursory glance at the situation and what is being written. However it appears that US "armored forces" (which for news types means anything with tracks, to include Bradleys) have been introduced into the fight. Of course what they bring is enormous firepower (the Bushmaster is one nasty weapon) that can be used to support infantry and help neutralize any force ratio disadvantage. So while they may be in the fight, until I can read more about this, I'm not sure those units are actually taking the lead. Observation four: This is a "must win" for Maliki. This is not a situation, now that he's initiated it, that he can pull back from until the desired result is achieved. To do so means Sadr wins. So this is a fight to the death, politically speaking. If Sadr and his militia's win, it will be hard for the present government of Iraq to recover from that. If Maliki wins, it will greatly diminish Sadr's clout, both politically and "militarily". Meanwhile, take careful sips of the reporting throughout the blogosphere. I've seen everything from "Iraq is teetering" to "this is no big deal". It is a big deal, but not to the extent of Iraq "teetering". More as I get a chance, but most likely later today. |
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