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Are Democrats ignoring a problem?
Posted by: McQ on Wednesday, April 16, 2008

From a Reuter's article today:
Darwin McAfee is a white evangelical Protestant who is opposed to abortion and likes the great outdoors.

This makes him a prototype Republican. But he's a registered Democrat who plans to support New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in next week's crucial Pennsylvania primary.

"I'm a registered Democrat and I'll probably go for Hillary. I think it's a change, I'd like to see a lady get in there," said McAfee, 50, a Pennsylvania resident who works for the water department in the neighboring state of Maryland.
McAfee is exactly the guy that Democrats want and want badly. He's the swing vote they crave. He, and others like him, are what are going to make or break the Democratic candidate who eventually gets the party's nomination.

However, the question is, how solid Democratic is that vote. If Hillary isn't the one, is Barack?

Maybe not:
In this latest survey of 2,103 likely Democratic primary voters by the independent Quinnipiac University, 26 percent of Clinton supporters would switch to Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican, in November if Obama were the Democratic nominee. Nineteen percent of Obama backers would switch to McCain if Clinton were the Democratic nominee.
I've brought those numbers up before, a week or so ago, and they've hardly changed at all. I think this is where Democrats are miscalculating a bit, thinking that regardless of who the candidate is, the same voters are going to vote Democrat in the general election. The trend I'm seeing among the polls says they may want to relook that belief.
 
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Comments
Damn - the democrats like McCain more the the republicans!
 
Written By: meagain
URL: http://
McCain will probably win, but Hillary has no chance. Obama can bring in new voters, increase the youth vote, and increase the minority voting turnout. If he can find a formula to win more white working class folk, he can defeat McCain. Hillary, though, would be toast.
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
How many election cycles have we heard the tired trope about increasing the youth vote, and how many times has that happened?

Counting the youth vote in your column as a strength is good for appealling to your own side, but seriously its only a poll numbers padding game. The youth are disintrested and will not turn out in record numbers for anyone.
 
Written By: John
URL: http://
For weeks now, since the first poll that address the potential of Democrat crossovers because "their candidate" did not get the nomination was discussed, many of the poll numbers were dismissed. "The Democrats will come together once this process is resolved and be united against the Republicans" was the mantra of the day from all the talking heads. But even if the current poll is off by 50% - 10% of Hillary or Obama’s supporters crossing over to McCain would be devastating to the Democrats in November. It would be even more so if that translated to the House and Senate - which I doubt but would be curious to see poll numbers on that possibility.
 
Written By: SShiell
URL: http://

 
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