Generic v. names - GOP has advantage Posted by: McQ
on Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Remember the "generic Democrat" and the polls and how well that generic Democrat did?
Forty-eight percent (48%) trust Democrats more than Republicans when it comes to the economy while 40% trust the GOP more.
Guess what happens when names are inserted?
Those numbers are reversed when real names are inserted instead of party labels. Given a choice between McCain and Clinton, 47% trust McCain more while 42% prefer the former First Lady. Given a choice between McCain and Obama on the economy, 46% trust the GOP nominee while 39% opt for the Democratic frontrunner. The economy is the top issue of Election 2008 and is considered Very Important by 79% of voters.
War in Iraq - generic v. name:
Overall, when it comes to Iraq, Democrats are currently trusted more by 45% of voters and the GOP is trusted more by 43%. However, when it comes to the War in Iraq, McCain is trusted by more than either Democrat. Fifty percent (50%) trust McCain over Clinton while 40% hold the opposite view. Forty-eight percent (48%) trust McCain over Obama while 39% prefer Obama.
The broader topic of National Security is one of the few issues where Republicans have a generic advantage over Democrats. However, following seven years of the Bush Administration, the GOP advantage on this issue has declined. Currently, 47% of voters trust Republicans more on this issue while 42% trust the Democrats more. However, once again, McCain outperforms the party label and dominates against either Democrat. When it comes to national security, McCain is trusted more than Clinton by a 54% to 34% margin. With Obama, McCain's advantage is 52% to 31%.
On taxes, Republicans are preferred over Democrats, 46% to 42%. McCain is trusted over Clinton 45% to 36% and by a 41% to 38% margin over Obama.
On average, McCain outperforms the generic Republican label by seven points when matched against Obama and by thirteen points against Clinton. The gap between Obama and Clinton is caused almost entirely by the difference on the issue of Government Ethics and Corruption.
And it is on Ethics and Corruption where the pattern is broken:
Democrats are trusted more than Republicans by a 38% to 32% margin. Most unaffiliated voters don't trust either party on the topic. Here, Obama outperforms the Democratic Party label and is trusted more than McCain by a 44% to 33% margin. However, McCain is trusted more than Clinton, 47% to 34%.
It's going to be hard to run a national campaign on just ethics and corruption without trying to tear into the other areas where McCain has a lead.
So assuming Obama is the nominee, which Obama emerges from the convention - the high-minded, civil, "new" politician or a down-and-dirty, take-no-prisoners old-style in the gutter Chicago pol?
“That [debate] was the rollout of the Republican campaign against me in November. It happened just a little bit early, but that is what they will do,” Mr. Obama said. “They will try to focus on all these issues that don’t have anything to do with how you are paying your bills at the end of the month. There’s no doubt that I will have to respond sharply and crisply, then pivot to talk about what exactly are we going to do for the economy and what are we going to do about the war in Iraq.”
Until the nominating fight ends, Mr. Obama said, he is “trying to show some restraint.” He added, “I won’t have as much restraint with the Republicans."