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The world may continue to cool for the next decade
Posted by: McQ on Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Hmmm ... interesting:
Global warming could take a break in the next decade thanks to a natural shift in ocean circulations, although Earth's temperature will rise as previously expected over the longer term, according to a study published on Thursday in the British journal Nature.

Climate scientists in Germany base the prediction on what they believe is an impending change in the Gulf Stream — the conveyor belt that transports warm surface water from the tropical Atlantic to the northern Atlantic and returns cold water southwards at depth.

The Gulf Stream will temporarily weaken over the next decade, in line with what has happened regularly in the past, the researchers say.

This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures in the North Atlantic and in North America and Europe, and also help the temperatures in the tropical Pacific to remain stable, they suggest.
So let me get this straight - it has been getting cooler the last decade and now scientists theorize that it will cool for another decade, but somehow the probability that this natural shift will not effectively stop what is claimed to be an unnatural shift - caused by CO2 generated by humans - to higher global temps?

"Well heck", they say, "we told you this warming could be 'start-and-stop' stuff."

But apparently what it can't possibly be is "natural."
 
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
So some puny little current swinging around the Atlantic has the utter gall to put Global Warming on hold?
What kind of dastardly act is that?
You would think there were other factors at play besides CO2 in Global Warming?
Has the Goreacle been informed?
What is his take on this heresy?
When will these scientists learn we have a consensus here!

/sarcasm
 
Written By: SShiell
URL: http://
But they are wrong....
This will lead ..., and also help the temperatures in the tropical Pacific to remain stable, they suggest.
at least about the pacific.

Yesterday Anthony Watts posted regarding the recent JPL press release indicating that the Pacific Decadal Oscilation appears to have already flipped to a cooling phase which will significantly impact the NW Pacific...

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/04/29/nasa-pdo-flip-to-cool-phase-confirmed-cooler-times-ahead/
 
Written By: BIllS
URL: http://bills-opinions.blogspot.com
This can’t be!

We haven’t officially DONE SOMETHING!

We’ve only talked about the need to DO SOMETHING!

Paging Professor Erb.

We’re wondering, is talking about DOING SOMETHING sufficient to actually affect the climate so we can claim that our efforts and excitement weren’t just a lot of hot air?

 
Written By: looker
URL: http://
Paging Professor Erb.
If I understand his comments towards the bottom of this thread, he’s going to leave us alone for a while. Of course, there are a lot of weasel words in what he said, so it’s not assured. But I presume your comment was based on the assumption that he would be here whether you wanted him to be or not. If you’re as ready for a break as I am, let’s not encourage him to end his hiatus.
 
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
Aw heck, I already know the answer anyway, I’ve heard it often enough.

Climate change is being caused by human CO2 emissions. That’s pretty much the whole cause, and most changes in the climate are a direct result of that, even if we can’t measure the exact amount of change it causes (but it’s the whole cause...see?)

We need to do something about it to prevent climate change. We’re not calling it warming any more because the ’warming’ might actually manifest itself as cooling. It can get cooler even as it gets warmer using this model. But we don’t really believe in government regulation to stop this oncoming disaster. We think it’s foolish to deny that it’s happening and the deniers are losing the political battle and even though we don’t want regulation it will happen because there’s consensus and we have to do something.

And the only something we can think of to prevent this speeding climate catastrophe is have the United States embrace radical change to reduce the amount of CO2 gas we’re releasing into the atmosphere, via regulation other than government regulation of course.

If we don’t do that, we’ll be cannibals before you can say "Bob’s your uncle" (I stole that last part from Ted Turner, I don’t think the Maine Mosquito ever said that).
 
Written By: looker
URL: http://
Silly people, it really depends on what the definition of the word "warming" is.
When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone,’ it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.’
-H. Dumpty, Through the Looking Glass

 
Written By: Augustus
URL: http://
this is unpossible, why just yesterday I was buying stock in companies that make sun block.

Funny how people who know so much more than me have been trying to use science to frighten my ass for decades now.

first it was the population bomb
then the silent spring
then the freon/ozone scare
then nuclear winter and/or the new ice age
then it was Y2K
then it was peak oil
then it was ebola and the hot zone
then it was global warming
except that was not working out so well so now it’s
global climate change.

I wish they would just shut the hell up and go back to doing real science.
 
Written By: kyleN
URL: http://impudent.blognation.us/blog
Kyle!

You know real scientists don’t get to give speeches and fly around the globe on fancy jets with gobs of dough stuffed in their pockets, made by peddling fear philosophies to a public eager to be scared of something!

This is why people pay to see horror flicks and ride scary rides! Only this ’thrill’ never ends!
 
Written By: looker
URL: http://
Wow...

Not the story, but a post on global warming, oops, I mean climate change were comments are allowed.
 
Written By: bains
URL: http://
Funny how people who know so much more than me have been trying to use science to frighten my ass for decades now.

first it was the population bomb
then the silent spring
then the freon/ozone scare
then nuclear winter and/or the new ice age
then it was Y2K
then it was peak oil
then it was ebola and the hot zone
then it was global warming
except that was not working out so well so now it’s
global climate change.
Don’t forget the killer bees.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.QandO.net
Or acid rain!
 
Written By: A fine scotch
URL: http://
They know that temperatures are basically flat over the last decade, and they’re afraid that if the next decade cools the GW hysteria will die down and they will be unable to convince people to buy into their socialist "solutions" to climate change. Therefore they are preemptively explaining how a cooling of the earth cannot be taken as evidence that anthropogenic global warming is not significant.
 
Written By: Captain Obviousness
URL: http://
Isn’t this the doomsday scenario from "The Day After Tomorrow"? The Earth "slightly cooling over the next decade" doesn’t seem like they showed how it would be in that movie.

 
Written By: Jimmy the Dhimmi
URL: www.warning1938alert.ytmnd.com
What a remarkable job they’ve done detaching objective measurement from their gaia worship.

"You won’t be able to verify global warming because, you see, the next decade, we think it’ll get colder. This is not good news. We had hoped it would only get warmer. Why, just yesterday, we were just telling you it’d get warmer by 10-20 degrees in the next couple of decades like in Al Gore’s movie, showing you pictures of drowning polar bears, etc. Of course, this is exactly proof that it’s even worse than we had feared. Colder means it’ll be much, much hotter. It’s like a top spinning out of control - swing more and more to extremes. This is exceptionally bad news. God forbid the temperature stays the same for a year. That’d be catastrophic news... pray that doesn’t happen! The only hope you have is handing over 25% of GDP to us so we can get busy finding solution."

During the dot-com era, we had penny stock scam artists pumping millions of shares onto the market while hyping the stock. An increasing price was easy to explain, but a sinking price was even more curious. It was represented as "an increasing buying opportunity" - the more it sunk, the greater your profit would be when it rose like the scammer claimed it was certain to.

I always wondered where these crooks ended up. I guess we now know... isn’t it amusing that Mr. "I founded the Internet and am the father of dot-com" is behind the latest scam. When if you understand Gore’s role in trying to swing NSFNET control over to the regional Bells to expand their monopoly into cyberspace, his corruption and involvement in scams is hardly a surprise.
 
Written By: redherkey
URL: http://
You left out the Asian bird flu thing...
 
Written By: blue
URL: http://
Rove, you magnificent bastard!
 
Written By: rob
URL: http://
Yeah, basically more and more people are catching on to the fact temps are flat or slightly falling for the last decade. If we enter a downswing they are preemptively grasping at straws to cover their collective asses.

Of course we’re on the verge of a downswing that has the hucksters nervous and McCain gets AGW fever. Great.

The problem is that if we neglect the reality of being on a downswing, food production worldwide might suffer. Oh wait, it is.
 
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
"Global warming could take a break in the next decade thanks to a natural shift in ocean circulations..."

There seems to be some confusion here. Either the Earth is getting warmer or it is not. Shifting warm and/or cool local areas has no overall effect on GLOBAL temperature changes. Moving heat energy from one part of the globe to another has zero effect on the total heat content of the Earth. You can shuffle the cards as many times as you want, and deal them any way you want, but there are still 52 cards in the deck.
 
Written By: timactual
URL: http://
Timactual, my understanding is that without regard to currents, La Nina or any local shifts the oceans as a whole are in fact cooling, and have been shown to have been doing so over the last five years. Project name, if memory serves, is ARCOS; it involves some 5000 oceanic temperature probes placed as much as a mile deep; results were admitted (grudgingly, O grudgingly) to show none of the warming the project planners had anticipated finding, and in fact to clearly demonstrate cooling. Unintentional hilarity resulted from the NPR story reporter’s — and a pro-warming interviewee’s — efforts to account for this desperately unfortunate result. My favorite proposition was that perhaps the warm water had somehow, unaccountably, just, well, doggone it, gone deeper down. (Perhaps the phrase "heat sink" might have been lurking in the back of someone’s mind, even if the actual definition wasn’t exactly any help.)
 
Written By: Megaera
URL: http://
The problem I have with the El Nino La Nina transition theory is that we’ve had several since the start of the past warming trends in the 1970s. There doesn’t seem to be prolonged effect on temperatures when it occurs as it does this time.

And why are we only figuring out this effect now?
 
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
"my understanding is that without regard to currents, La Nina or any local shifts the oceans as a whole are in fact cooling"

Okay, fine. I have no idea whether they are or not. As I have noted before, I am skeptical of any and all claims as to the exact temperature, to a fraction of a degree, of the air, oceans, land, or aether. As far as I am concerned, such fraction of a degree changes are statistical noise.


"My favorite proposition was that perhaps the warm water had somehow, unaccountably, just, well, doggone it, gone deeper down."

I think I remember that one. Someone here either quoted it or posted a link to it a few months ago. Pretty funny.
 
Written By: timactual
URL: http://
"And why are we only figuring out this effect now?"

Because our knowledge of the Earth is not as exact and omniscient as some would have us believe.
 
Written By: timactual
URL: http://
Or they rectally extracted it.
 
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
Not the story, but a post on global warming, oops, I mean climate change were comments are allowed.
I had that same snarky thought...
 
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
"Don’t forget the killer bees."

Obviously you haven’t seen The Swarm.
 
Written By: Grimshaw
URL: http://
This study was also reported on Bloomberg.com. In that story, Richard Wood, of the Hadley Center (who is quoted in the AFP story to which McQ links in this post) says:
``Those natural climate variations could be stronger than the global-warming trend over the next 10-year period,’’ Wood said in an interview. ``Without knowing that, you might erroneously think there’s no global warming going on.’’
That sentence doesn’t make sense. If the world is cooling during the next ten years, as this study suggests, then there will be no warming. There will be cooling and it would in fact be incorrect to believe that there is "global warming going on." I realize that his defenders will say that he means the next ten years of cooling don’t negate the predicted long term trend of warming, but that isn’t what he said. I’m not just being pedantic. Woods’s statement is nonsensical and it shows the confirmation bias of AGW proponents. They believe there is "global warming going on" even when the Earth is actually cooling.

This study also proves the point that skeptics have long made which is that there are innumerable influences on the Earth’s climate which interact with each other and they are much too complex to accurately model. Rising CO2 is not the only factor that will influence temperatures in the future. How does anyone know whether or not there will be some other climate process that will cause additional cooling two decades from now that will be stronger than the "global warming going on". AGW proponents know what they know and the facts don’t matter.

The AFP article also says
Climate experts have long warned, though, that warming is unlikely to be a gradual trend, but a movement in stops and starts.
Which models predicted this and does this mean that the models predicted cooling? This is a statement made by the journalist, it doesn’t cite any authority for this claim.
 
Written By: jt007
URL: http://
That sentence doesn’t make sense. If the world is cooling during the next ten years, as this study suggests, then there will be no warming.
Yeah, this is just cover. There is 5 Billion dollars of funding to global warming studies and no one on that side wants to take the chance of killing the golden goose.
Which models predicted this and does this mean that the models predicted cooling?
None, the models didn’t even predict the leveling out of the of temp increases, much less a reversal.

The problem with these guys is that they don’t seem to understand the implications of what a complex system actually are. A complex system has degrees of order and chaos and any model is expected to show a high degree of uncertainty due to the fact that you can never have a certainty of the system initial conditions. Therefore they linearize their models to make them predictable and thus lose the real meaning of their models.

I worked in atmospheric sciences (computer science engineering) in the early nineties on Ozone DIAL Lidar systems and was quite proud of my role in saving the planet from the loss of the ozone layer. I even went to the tip of Ellesmere island to install a system on the top of a mounting in February. Turns out the science was a bit more complex than the models. I am a lot more skeptical since then.
 
Written By: capt joe
URL: http://
The following is a Public Service announcement:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_prog_summary.shtml

and

http://craniusmaximus.com/cmblog/global-dimming

Enjoy!
 
Written By: Juan Man
URL: http://
It’s good to know that George Bush had the insight to turn the tide on Global Warming. While Al Gore talked and talked, his releases of hot air weren’t enough to out do Bush.
 
Written By: Neo
URL: http://
Woods’s statement is nonsensical and it shows the confirmation bias of AGW proponents. They believe there is "global warming going on" even when the Earth is actually cooling.
I’m telling you, this "news" lies somewhere between Karl Rove and the Onion!
 
Written By: rob
URL: http://
Bains, Scott,

Whether comments are allowed or not is up to which ever of our hosts posted it...

That said, it does not surprise me in this case.
 
Written By: anomdebus
URL: http://

 
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