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The Wright Effect
Posted by: McQ on Thursday, May 01, 2008

And he is having one:
In general election polling John McCain now attracts 46% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 43%. Just before Wright had his press conference on Monday, McCain and Obama were even. A week ago, Obama had a two-point edge. McCain is now tied with Hillary Clinton at 44%. A week ago, McCain had a two-point edge over the former First Lady.

Those figures mean that Clinton now outperforms Obama by three points. A week ago, Obama outperformed Clinton by four.
Given that the only thing that's happened of any significance since last week is the Wright media blitz, it seems he is having an effect on Obama:
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the Wright impact is especially evident. Clinton now has a statistically insignificant two-point edge over Obama, 46% to 44%. However, that represents a ten-point swing since Wright’s press conference. Before Pastor Wright appeared at the National Press Club, Obama led Clinton by eight points.
Obama's unfavorables have also shot up:
Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 45%. Obama is now viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 48%. For Clinton, the reviews are 44% favorable, 54% unfavorable.
And, as John Fund reports, this is all having some rather interesting effects:
The poll shows that Mr. Obama's favorable ratings have declined among Democrats to a point where Hillary Clinton now has higher net positive ratings. Mr. Obama is viewed favorably by 63% of Democrats and negatively by 27%. Mrs. Clinton has a 73% favorable rating and is viewed negatively by 22% of Democrats. Specifically on Rev. Wright, 36% of Democrats say they would be disinclined to vote for Mr. Obama because of his ties to his former pastor.

Perhaps this explains why Travis Childers, the Democratic frontrunner in a special House election this month in Mississippi, has now gone out of his way to combat GOP attempts to associate him with the Illinois Senator. In a new TV ad, Mr. Childers appears to be running away from Mr. Obama's endorsement of him, protesting "the lies and attacks linking me to politicians I don't know, and have never even met."

He is only one candidate, and in a deeply conservative district. But should Mr. Childers, who came within an eyelash of winning the seat outright in the first round of voting for the special election, lose in the May 13 runoff, you can bet the Wright fracas will be blamed.
The poll Fund cites is a Fox News poll and seems to validate the Rasmussen findings.

The other unknown, given his rather strong denunciation of Wright the other day, is how this will play for Obama among black voters. If Childers is any indication, it may not be good news.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

He provides cover for Whitey to simply bail on the man, like they were going to any way you people for a Black Man for POTUS...RACISTS!
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
The meme I anticipate: everyone will forget this by November, it is an issue no one really cares about anyway.

Of course if this continues, the meme will change into "we were for Hillary all along". The question is when will the usual idiots reach the inflection point?
Written By: Don
URL: http://
One thing I’ve noticed is that aside from the journalists who want to keep riding the Obama train (they’re always the last to know), the Obama train has stopped.

A lot of these big-winded Democratic pols, who believe they knew a winner when they saw one and couldn’t wait to hop on the train, they’ve pretty much shut the hell up, something that Dan Henninger pointed out in the WSJ today.

I’m wondering if Obama isn’t suddenly having a problem getting his phone calls returned.
Written By: Martin McPhillips
Starting with "Wright Is Right" James Taranto does six consecutive items on Obama today that cover a lot of territory. The first one deals directly with how close the two men were, are, or were supposed to be, and what the plan was for handling an outbreak of Wright.
Written By: Martin McPhillips
If this had been a two-man contest between Obama and McCain, the Wright issue would never had made it past the MSM filters so that our culture could have this discussion. The only reason that the issue made it out of our corner of the blogosphere was that two Democrats are going head to head, and Clinton Machine flack George Stephanopoulos brought it up during a Democratic candidate debate.

Once the MSM was forced to cover the issue, everyone from Bill Moyers on television to Joe Klein in TIME closed ranks to spin for Wright. Obama, with the honesty of the political neophyte, made them all look like Jimmy Carter League saps by coming out and saying that Wright was a legitimate issue in the campaign, and Wright’s poisonous demogoguery is not just a typical and innocuous black church thing that white people can’t understand.
Written By: Aldo
URL: http://
All this just from Wright - we still have the whole - Ayers thing to keep life in the view of Obama... Even if Wright went away tomorrow the Ayers thing can and will be hammered by the Republicans - after all Ayers is White.

The ad could go - Would you associate with activist bombers who happily kill americans? Barrak hangs out with one - then play a clip of Ayers saying how he wishes they could have set more bombs and killed more Americans. - with friends like these who needs enemies - shot of Bin Laden to close scene. Paid for by someone other then John McCain.
Written By: BIllS
McCain would have to pee himself on national TV to lose to Obama if the election was held next week.
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
Nothing will effect his standing with black voters, he could appear before the cameras and pull an OJ on his wife, and still get 90% of the black vote.

I never thought his numbers were accurate anyway. He was being propelled by the ignorant youth vote which historically can never be counted on in the general election. And by the BDS platoons. I never thought he would hold up to close scrutiny.
Written By: kyleN
Nothing will effect his standing with black voters, he could appear before the cameras and pull an OJ on his wife, and still get 90% of the black vote.
Come on kyle, you’re better than this. Try to keep on an even keel.
Written By: meagain
URL: http://
"His (Obama’s) campaign is not being derailed by his race, it’s being derailed by a person who doesn’t want him to prove that we have made great advances in this country," Huckabee told reporters.
"Jeremiah Wright needs for Obama to lose so he can justify his anger, his hostile bitterness against the United States of America," Huckabee said.
Written By: Neo
URL: http://
Come on kyle, you’re better than this. Try to keep on an even keel.
Kyle’s comment is sick and wrong in all kinds of ways.

You’ll remember Hillary had more of the black vote than Obama did at one time. To suggest that black people will blindly vote for the black candidate is just stupid.
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
I stand by my comment, they will blindly vote for any black democrat. They will reelect people like Marion Barry and Ray Nagin. Period end of story. Black Americans are the most racially motivated identity group in the nation by far.
Written By: kyleN
I stand by my comment
Then you stand alone - and in contempt as Pogue just pointed out at one point Hillary had a higher percentage of the black vote.
Written By: meagain
URL: http://
poor meagan, whats the matter? don’t like to hear about any of the problems within the black community? You have contempt for me for pointing out the obvious, that Black Americans will always vote for a black Democrat no matter what he does or says? You have a few early polls on your side of the argument, I have decades of observation on mine.

But I guess that makes me a big ol racist right? because I dare to point out a possible problem with black group think.
Written By: kyleN

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