Meta-Blog

SEARCH QandO

Email:
Jon Henke
Bruce "McQ" McQuain
Dale Franks
Bryan Pick
Billy Hollis
Lance Paddock
MichaelW

BLOGROLL QandO

 
 
Recent Posts
The Ayers Resurrection Tour
Special Friends Get Special Breaks
One Hour
The Hope and Change Express - stalled in the slow lane
Michael Steele New RNC Chairman
Things that make you go "hmmmm"...
Oh yeah, that "rule of law" thing ...
Putting Dollar Signs in Front Of The AGW Hoax
Moving toward a 60 vote majority?
Do As I Say ....
 
 
QandO Newsroom

Newsroom Home Page

US News

US National News
Politics
Business
Science
Technology
Health
Entertainment
Sports
Opinion/Editorial

International News

Top World New
Iraq News
Mideast Conflict

Blogging

Blogpulse Daily Highlights
Daypop Top 40 Links

Regional

Regional News

Publications

News Publications

 
Science and models
Posted by: McQ on Thursday, May 08, 2008

Or hard data vs. assumptions if you prefer:
The new study, detailed in the April 5 issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, marks the first time that researchers have been able to give a progress report on Antarctic climate model projections by comparing climate records to model simulations. (These comparisons have already been done for the other six continents.)

Information about Antarctica's harsh weather patterns has traditionally been limited, but temperature records from ice cores and ground weather stations have recently been constructed, giving scientists the missing information they needed.

"This is a really important exercise for these climate models," said study leader Andrew Monaghan of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Co.

Monaghan and his team found that while climate models projected temperature increases of 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.75 degrees Celsius) over the past century, temperatures were observed to have risen by only 0.4 F (0.2 C).

"This is showing us that, over the past century, most of Antarctica has not undergone the fairly dramatic warming that has affected the rest of the globe," Monaghan said.

The gap between prediction and reality seemed to be caused by the models overestimating the amount of water vapor in the Antarctic atmosphere.

The cold air over the southernmost continent handles moisture differently than the atmosphere over warmer regions.
Conclusion? Antarctica isn't about to melt away anytime soon, it appears, even if temperatures elsewhere on the globe do rise a bit.

The one bit of good news for the model builders:
The models did, however, correctly capture the increases in snowfall over Antarctica in the late 20th century, followed by a decrease in the last decade.
And, speaking of irony:
One reason that Antarctica hasn't warmed as much as other parts of the globe is the existence of the man-made ozone hole overhead: It alters wind patterns, creating a swirling belt of winds around the landmass that keeps comparatively warm air from seeping in, preserving the continent's frigid temperatures.

One important exception to this rule is the Antarctic Peninsula, which has warmed by several degrees, in part because winds there draw in warmer air from the north.
Well that and the volcano that vents on the Anarctic Peninsula, but you get the idea - there's still a lot to be learned before declarations like this ...
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that sea levels could rise by 7 to 23 inches (18 to 59 centimeters) globally this century, in part due to ice melt at both poles and from mountain glaciers.
... are taken at face value.

(HT: Looker)
 
TrackBacks
Return to Main Blog Page
 
 

Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
I figure if they were good at Science, they wouldn’t have become MODELS.... I don’t think Gisele Bundchen is a rocket scientist by any means...Oh wait, you’re not talking about those models, are you?
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
Where’s Erb?
 
Written By: Joel C.
URL: http://
Where’s Erb?
He went to sh*t and the hogs ate him!
 
Written By: SShiell
URL: http://
Where’s Erb?
He melted.

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
Where’s Erb?
Probably been busy giving/grading finals and reporting grades.
 
Written By: Is
URL: http://
It’s not as if we can’t fill in any blank for what he might have to say about the subject.
 
Written By: looker
URL: http://
vaginal pimple or boil , missouri sex offender , dark girl s rhyme ,
 
Written By: book lady pin
URL: http://oiledangels.com/book-lady-pin
Monaghan and his team found that while climate models projected temperature increases of 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.75 degrees Celsius) over the past century, temperatures were observed to have risen by only 0.4 F (0.2 C).

"This is showing us that, over the past century, most of Antarctica has not undergone the fairly dramatic warming that has affected the rest of the globe," Monaghan said.
Silly me, just a regional P.E., but perhaps one might recheck the other data, you know, those showing dramatic warming to see which set is, in fact, anomalous.

Alas, far be it for the AGW crowd to re-evaluate their a priori derived "results."
 
Written By: bains
URL: http://
Where’s Erb?
He’s posting under the pseudonym ’Gloria’ tonight ;-)
 
Written By: meagain
URL: http://
swallow cum cuckhold story , homosexual newsletter , domai nude ,
 
Written By: celebrity cruses
URL: http://videolust.net/go/celebrity-cruses
"Where’s Erb?"
"vaginal pimple or boil , missouri sex offender , dark girl s rhyme ,..."

Coincidence? I think not.


" dramatic warming "

I think melodramatic warming would be a more accurate characterisation.
 
Written By: timactual
URL: http://
I like how they threw in "the human caused Ozone Hole" There is really only scant evidence that the "hole" had anything to do with flourocarbons or human activity.
It enlarges and shrinks with the sunlight in winter and summer. Ozone is created constantly in the atmosphere.

 
Written By: kyleN
URL: http://impudent.blognation.us/blog
AGW believers think the Earth’s ecosystem is similar to a living thing, a being some call, "Gaia." Think about the implication of that analogy.

If a team of scientists could construct a high fidelity model for Gaia, it would be much easier to simulate a human being. If they could do that, we could cure diseases and repair genetic defects. Of course, they can’t do either.

Global warming and global cooling are natural phenomena. We do not understand the process at all. Scientists have compiled a list of 160 factors that they believe affect climate. (I would bet that the list is double that.) Professor Mann’s model used by the IPCC considered only 4.

We do not know whether the atmosphere is warming or cooling. The Southern Hemisphere showed no warming trend during the 20th Century. The Earth’s surface is not adequately instrumented with temperature sensors. The Arctic, where glaciation begins, is critical. Between 1990 and 2000, the Russians closed 11,000 of the world’s 16,400 weather stations, most of them above the Arctic Circle. Did "average" temperatures rise between 1990 and 2000 or did we just stop measuring temperatures in cold places?

No where is the theory more fallacious than with atmospheric levels carbon dioxide.
 
Written By: Arch
URL: http://

 
Add Your Comment
  NOTICE: While we don't wish to censor your thoughts, we do blacklist certain terms of profanity or obscenity. This is not to muzzle you, but to ensure that the blog remains work-safe for our readers. If you wish to use profanity, simply insert asterisks (*) where the vowels usually go. Your meaning will still be clear, but our readers will be able to view the blog without worrying that content monitoring will get them in trouble when reading it.
Comments for this entry are closed.
Name:
Email:
URL:
HTML Tools:
Bold Italic Blockquote Hyperlink
Comment:
   
 
Vicious Capitalism

Divider

Buy Dale's Book!
Slackernomics by Dale Franks

Divider

Divider