Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, May 20, 2008 The "Bush is going to attack Iran" meme is again resurfacing: [Israel's] Army Radio had quoted a top official in Jerusalem claiming that a senior member in the entourage of President Bush, who concluded a trip to Israel last week, had said in a closed meeting here that Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney were of the opinion that military action against Iran was called for.Frankly that's a rehash of the same old rumor we've been hearing for over a year. If true I can promise it won't be before November, because the administration couldn't do anything more that would guarantee a Democratic victory in November than attacking Iran. Rice and Gates don't want the attack for separate and good reasons. Rice knows that any progress that has been made in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq would go down the tubes. The argument that Iraq was a unique situation that won't be repeated becomes a dead one. Gates knows that an attack on Iran would seriously jeopardize progress in Iraq. Iran will be driven to find a way to strike back, and Iraq is the closest and easiest target for them (and full of Americans to boot). So I continue to maintain, given the downside of such an attack, that it isn't imminent and most likely won't happen before Bush leaves office. Political considerations have been added to the previous diplomatic and military considerations and, in my opinion, overwhelm any argument for a strike. Of course that's the rational argument based in reality. And as we all know, rational arguments don't always win the day. Anyway, if there is an attack it would happen between November and January '09. I don't think it will happen for the other reasons stated.. We know it won't happen after January '09 if Obama becomes president, because, you know, Iran doesn't spend anywhere near what we spend on defense and therefore isn't much of a threat. You'd almost believe, given that statement, that Barack Obama had graduated cum laude from the School of Uninformed and Naive Foreign Policy, wouldn't you? |
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