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Interesting poll numbers
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, May 27, 2008

From Rasmussen:
McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 27% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 34%. For McCain, the numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable.
Amazing unfavorable numbers for Obama given the narrative. Of course, I'm sure there are those out there who will still argue that the Wright debacle had no effect.

And how about this little tidbit:
Twenty-four percent (24%) of White Democrats nationwide currently say they’ll vote for the Republican candidate, John McCain.
Key word? "Democrats". Any Dems out there want to tell me why 24% of you won't vote for a guy who essentially is ideologically indistinguishable from the other Dem candidate?

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.6 % chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that John McCain attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while Barack Obama earns 44%. McCain has been “ahead” by at least two percentage points on four of the last six days. On the other two days during that stretch, the candidates were tied.
It's shaping up to be a very entertaining general election.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Don’t let the "favorable/unfavorable" survey results mean too much.

I hold an "unfavorable" view of McCain but I’ll vote for him since my views of Obama and Clinton are even MORE unfavorable.
Written By: Whitehall
URL: http://
It would be an interesting analysis to look at the cumulative unfavorable for both major party candidates over the last dozen or so presidential elections. My hypothesis is that the total unfavorable for both candidates goes up over that time. Anybody out there with some time to do the requesite googling?
Written By: Billy Hollis
URL: http://
I’m sitting out this election.

McCain is just unbelievable and is the only person who could find a way to lose this election.

The way I see it, even if McCain wins, we will likely get Obama or an Obama Clone in 2012. The extremist Left will not give up on "Utopia Now!" that easily. Only after they stick their fingers in the fire, will they learn. The Republicans appear unequiped to stop it otherwise. So right now, Obama or an Obama clone is in our future. Its only a matter of when.
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
Only after they stick their fingers in the fire, will they learn.
You overestimate their ability to learn.
Written By: Don
URL: http://
I continue to believe that Obama will not be the nominee. But more about that in a moment.

If he is the nominee the general election fight will break the hold on his image as it is currently being maintained in the mainstream media. His "very unfavorables" will hit 40%, his overall unfavorables will go over 50%. He will lose to McCain by ten points.

Now, why do I still believe that Obama will not be the nominee?

Because the Clintons are damn close to being able to claim that She is the winner of the popular vote in the Democratic primaries and caucuses.

That raises the question of whether superdelegates should follow the winner of the committed delegates (which are insufficient to get him the nomination) or whether superdelegates should follow the winner of the overall popular vote, who also happened to win in most of the essential swing states needed to win the general election.

If the contest gets to that point, and it appears that it will, then a few news cycles worth of further damage to Obama’s reputation makes the difference.

P.S. to that: Few probably saw this, but I happened to be watching Hardball with Matthews several nights back. He had one of those panels on discussing the nomination fight. One of the panelists was a young black woman who you’ve probably seen on there if you watch the show at all. Her last name is Bernard, and I think the first name is Michelle, but I might be confusing her with another last name Bernard.

Anyway, in her final comment Ms. Bernard, with what was clearly a glint of madness in her eyes, said to Matthews something along the lines that if Obama is denied the nomination in Denver that there will be "race riots" (her exact term, I believe). She said it with that look in her eyes and the hint of a smile formed on faintly curled lips.

Now, that’s the threat that’s hanging out there. Matthews didn’t like hearing it and he made a slight verbal motion of displeasure and chastisement toward Bernard, but otherwise let it go, the segment having come to an end. I’m afraid that this Obama situation has become what it always was intended to be and the veil over it is now very thin indeed. Hence, I believe, the very high "very unfavorable" number. Voters are starting to view Obama back through the prism through which he views them.
Written By: Martin McPhillips
"McCain is just unbelievable and is the only person who could find a way to lose this election."

I disagree, I think McCain is the only one of the Republican candidates (in another universe, Thompson might have had a good shot too) who can win this one, due to his appeal to the undecided mainstream voters. Or do you think a Giuliani, a Romney or a -shudder- Huckabee could gather enough votes in the current anti-Republican atmosphere?
Let’s face it, McCain is practically a Democrat, and good for him, since the last thing the Dems and the Swingers want right now is a real Republican.

But I agree that one of these elections, we are going to be stuck with an Obama or some other empty prophet of left-wing change.
Written By: ishopphotos
URL: http://
I disagree, I think McCain is the only one of the Republican candidates (in another universe, Thompson might have had a good shot too) who can win this one, due to his appeal to the undecided mainstream voters. Or do you think a Giuliani, a Romney or a -shudder- Huckabee could gather enough votes in the current anti-Republican atmosphere?
Let’s face it, McCain is practically a Democrat, and good for him, since the last thing the Dems and the Swingers want right now is a real Republican.
The swing voters want someone with principle. The Republicans got kicked out in ’06 because of slime and lack of principle. It had little to do with Republican traditional policies. Immitating Democrats demonstrates no principle at all either. They will vote for a real democrat over an imitation Democrat in a heartbeat.

McCain will lose this if he’s afraid to distinguish himself from the Democrats on more than just Iraq.
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
You can define McCain’s policies and proposals as imitating Democratic policies, or you can call it diverging from party line. I don’t have the statistics to back it up, but I suspect many swing voters see it more as the latter and do see McCain as a man of principle, especially with his wartime experiences, and his (atrocious) opinions on environmentalism and climate change in mind.
When the alternative is Obama, who does not particularly appeal to the center, I can see many flock to McCain, as the "sensible" choice.

Don’t get me wrong, personally I’m not a big fan of the man, but I think this is how unaffiliated voters would see it. And he does have certain redeeming conservative features, foreign policy, free trade and health care spring to mind.
Written By: ishopphotos
URL: http://
Martin — I just don’t know. On one hand, I don’t see how Obama, as the least prepared, furthest left, and most bizarre serious candidate in American history could possibly be elected. On the other hand, I don’t understand how he has gotten this far so successfully and why that streak couldn’t put him over the top in November.

Between Obama’s good looks and charisma, and the hatred or disillusionment many Americans have for Bush and the Iraq War, Obama has the wind at his back in this election.

I think it’s possible for Hillary to prevail for the nomination but unlikely. However, if that did happen, there will be the devil to pay at many levels.
Written By: huxley
URL: http://
Back on March 4, the day he clinched the nomination, McCain was at 55 favorable/43 unfavorable. On April 3, the middle of the 6-week Democratic lull, he was at 57/40. Now, as Obama has barely begun to turn his firepower toward McCain, he is down to 50/48. And Obama has yet to clinch the nomination.

One more point worth noting: McCain had a 35% unfavorabiliy rating on 12/20/07. Now it is at 48%. That’s a 13 percent swing in 6 months.

On 12/11/07 - long before anyone knew who Rev. Wright was, Obama’s unfavorable was at 47%. Today it is at 49%. At the height of the Rev. Wright controversy, it was at 52%.

The more interesting data point for the purposes of this election is the low-intensity of the support for McCain. His very favorable rating has never been higher than 20. Obama’s has been up around 30 for a while now.

Finally, the RCP averages have Obama ahead of McCain in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, even more ahead in the very white Upper Midwest (MI, MN, IA, and WI) and absolutely crushing McCain on the West Coast. Oh and Obama is either tied with or well ahead of McCain in Colorado, depending on the poll.

Can you believe it? A black man whose preacher said "God Damm America," whose middle name is Hussein, and who has just undergone a battle with the Clinton machine, is beating the white war hero in these states. And he is doing so even before he has really had a chance to turn his formidable resources against McCain.

Oh - btw - the RCP average over the last two weeks has Obama up 2.4%.

Please continue to underestimate Obama. Please. Thank you.
Written By: mkultra
URL: http://
Along the way, some unofficial rules have emerged between the candidate and his aide. From Mr. Obama: “One cardinal rule of the road is, we don’t watch CNN, the news or MSNBC. We don’t watch any talking heads or any politics. We watch ‘SportsCenter’ and argue about that.”
Obama is working on the NASCAR vote.
Written By: Neo
URL: http://
Please continue to underestimate Obama. Please. Thank you.
I don’t underestimate him. I think he’s uniquely qualified to destroy the country. He will not be elected, however.


The difference between the media coverage of Obama and, for instance, the primary results in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky is the difference between the promotion and the performance of the product.

I said above: Voters are starting to view Obama back through the prism through which he views them.

Shelby Steele predicted all of this with uncanny accuracy in his book about Obama, A Bound Man, which I did not read but know from seeing Steele interviewed extensively about it.

As for Hillary wrestling the nomination away from Obama at this late date: I don’t think that they’ve been in a better position to do it since Obama began to open up his lead after New Hampshire.

The Clintons will argue "popular vote" and "swing states," and as fear-ridden about race as the superdelegates are, they’re going to start seeing the logic. Then events on the ground could prove the difference.

The Clintons don’t really know how to do anything but win elections; aside from lying, that’s all that they have ever been good at.
Written By: Martin McPhillips
Martin — Yes, but Obama has also won several primaries since Pennsylvania. To be sure, many Democrats are saying no to Obama, but many are saying yes. Given the way the Dem primary process is structured, Obama’s lead and the leverage the black bloc has upon the Democratic party, it’s hard for me to see Obama losing.

I heard Steele interviewed several times too and found him persuasive, but not absolutely so. It’s still a theoretical argument that depends on a model of Obama and a model of the American electorate. In another year, I’d be convinced but this year is so unusual.

Written By: huxley
URL: http://
many Democrats are saying no to Obama, but many are saying yes.
It’s mostly "no," now. That tide turned in Pennsylvania. After that he won NC, a state that he will lose in November, because a third of the Democratic primary voters were African-Americans. He won 90% of their votes.

On the day that he was winning in Oregon by 17 points he was losing Kentucky by 35.

The clobbering he took in West Virginia, 40 points, would probably not have been more than ten points earlier in the primary season.

Yes, anything can happen in American politics — after all, Bill Clinton was elected president — but I’m laying my bet that 20 years a member of a racist, black supremacist church doesn’t cut it with a very healthy majority of voters.

Black voters already give 90% of their votes to Democrats in presidential elections, and having Obama as a candidate would increase black turnout, but having Obama as a candidate is going to increase turnout on both sides.

I’m sorry that the Democrats got themselves into a position where they feel that Obama must be their candidate. I’m sorry that their only alternative is Hillary Clinton, and I’m sorry that it’s John McCain’s turn to be the Republican nominee. But I’m quite certain that voters will reject Obama in the general, as Democratic primary voters already are as the Obama reality emerges from the Obama image: Not a racial reconciliationist, but a racial polarizer with an insidious racialist, and politically radical, background.
Written By: Martin McPhillips
First, copy Global Warming

And next is...
DENVER, Colorado (CNN) — The United States should scrap a significant portion of its nuclear arsenal, Sen. John McCain said Tuesday in a speech laying out his nuclear security policy.

McCain also spoke about canceling the development of nuclear "bunker-busting" bombs and working with Russia and China to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

"Today, we deploy thousands of nuclear warheads. It is my hope to move as rapidly as possible to a significantly smaller force," the presumptive Republican presidential nominee said at the University of Denver.
cnn link

Toward a Nuclear Free World: Obama will set a goal of a world without nuclear weapons, and pursue it. Obama will always maintain a strong deterrent as long as nuclear weapons exist. But he will take several steps down the long road toward eliminating nuclear weapons. He will stop the development of new nuclear weapons; work with Russia to take U.S. and Russian ballistic missiles off hair trigger alert; seek dramatic reductions in U.S. and Russian stockpiles of nuclear weapons and material; and set a goal to expand the U.S.-Russian ban on intermediate- range missiles so that the agreement is global.
McCain’s trying to be different...
He’s the white haired one.
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
I’m one of the 24% of Democrats who won’t vote for Obama. It’s not about ideology but competence. Obama has no track record, is obviously being vetted for the first time, and is painfully unaware of world history, military history, the history of diplomacy (even recent American diplomacy), and even American history. He’s just not qualified to be chief executive, chief diplomat and commander in chief.
Written By: Larry
URL: http://

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