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Hillary’s pitch to the superdelegates
Posted by: McQ on Wednesday, May 28, 2008

If anything should be on the endangered species list it is Hillary Clinton's superdelegates. They're disappearing faster than the polar bears.

Today she sent the uncommitted superdelegates a letter asking for their support. In part her argument was:
Recent polls and election results show a clear trend: I am ahead in states that have been critical to victory in the past two elections. From Ohio, to Pennsylvania, to West Virginia and beyond, the results of recent primaries in battleground states show that I have strong support from the regions and demographics Democrats need to take back the White House. I am also currently ahead of Senator McCain in Gallup national tracking polls, while Senator Obama is behind him. And nearly all independent analyses show that I am in a stronger position to win the Electoral College, primarily because I lead Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio. I’ve enclosed a detailed analysis of recent electoral and polling information, and I hope you will take some time to review it carefully.

In addition, when the primaries are finished, I expect to lead in the popular vote and in delegates earned through primaries. Ultimately, the point of our primary process is to pick our strongest nominee – the one who would be the best President and Commander in Chief, who has the greatest support from members of our party, and who is most likely to win in November. So I hope you will consider not just the strength of the coalition backing me, but also that more people will have cast their votes for me.
So, what do you think ... will it sway enough to give her the nomination? Will it sway any?

Popular vote. Polling better against McCain than Obama. Can deliver Ohio and Florida (she claims), which may decide the election. If you were a super, how would you view her argument?

UPDATE [DALE]: Shorter Hillary: In fact, Sen. Obama leads me in only one, single, measurable metric: A majority of the convention delegates.
 
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No way.

She just needs to accept the fact that Obama trumps her in the Democrat’s greivance group heirarchy. That means that if there is ANY argument at all for picking Obama, then the superdelegates are going to have to pick him or risk fracturing the entire party.
 
Written By: Terry
URL: http://
She has some good arguments.

The problem is that you have to see "Obama, the Candidate" as deficient as a competitor for the general election. I can see some delegates acknowledging he’s at a disadvantage. But I don’t think the implication will register and his deficiency will be downplayed.

Especially if they don’t see Obama as deficient in the job of President. I believe seeing "Obama, the President" through rose colored glasses will override any pragmatic argument Hillary makes about "Obama, the Candidate".
 
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
They’re disappearing faster than the polar bears.
..but, aren’t the polar bears population actually growing each year, and have been for the past two decades or so?
 
Written By: Joel C.
URL: http://
Hillary will be on the ticket.

By hook, crook or 9 MM.


And hooray for the sex links spam. Some people should be shot on sight.

 
Written By: retired military
URL: http://
Several folks have pointed out the problem for the super-delegates. Most are either elected or appointed party people. They have their own careers to consider. After seeing what the nutroots did to Liebermann in CT they are petrified of base backlash. And like almost every Dem I know, I suspect they loathe the Clinton Brand as well.

Cynically stated, it is better to lose the general with Obama, and purge the party of Clinton leadership, than win with Hillary. Then again, there are an awful lot of folks who have willingly bought into this nebulas and unfounded changitude and Hopeyness.
 
Written By: bains
URL: http://
Hillary wins, blue cities burn....news at 07:00
 
Written By: looker
URL: http://
"Yes, We Can."
 
Written By: Jeff
URL: http://repatriate.blogspot.com
"Hillary will be on the ticket.

By hook, crook or 9 MM."
{shiver] Jesus. You know, there is every chance that it might not come to that, but not a thing in the world or a bloody body in the street would surprise me.

She’s reduced to begging, at the moment, in the letter. This is not her natural mode. Let’s see what happens with the Rules Committee, but heaven help Denver.
 
Written By: Billy Beck
URL: http://www.two—four.net/weblog.php
Shorter Hillary: In fact, Sen. Obama leads me in only one, single, measurable metric: A majority of the convention delegates.
Correct. It occurrs to me, however that the Democrats are really in a touch spot with this one point alone.... They themselves opened this can of worms when they tried to claim a victory for Gore in 2000, by saying that he got more of the popular vote. Remember? If that metric was valid then, Clinton has every right to invoke it now, seems to me.

Looking at it from the opposite end, if it’s an invalid claim now, is this a tacit admission on the part of the Democrats that the claim was just so much stable floor covering back in the day?

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
I expect to lead in the popular vote and in delegates earned through primaries.
This bit is really deceptive. She ignores the delegates chosen by Caucuses. There is no way she will be ahead in delegates chosen by voters in primaries and caucuses. By using the narrow reading of "primaries" what she says may be true, but not by the more common use of "primaries" to included all the types of nominating contests in the various jusrisdictions. Does she really think that Superdelegates are a naive enough audience not to spot this?
 
Written By: Retief
URL: http://
Does she really think that Superdelegates are a naive enough audience not to spot this?
Not to defend Hillary, but nothing in this statement requires the superdelegates to be naive. In fact, the more politically sophisticated they are, the more likely they are to get it.

What she is referring to is the common belief that primaries are more representative of what will happen in the general election than caucuses are. It is conventional wisdom that primaries tend to appeal to the base of the party, forcing candidates to run toward the extreme in the primaries, then tack to the middle during the general, correct? Well, the argument is that caucuses tend to exacerbate this phenomena because they add an extra burden on the voter, meaning that they tend to be dominated by the most fanatical party mambers.
 
Written By: Terry
URL: http://

 
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