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Iran: Tit for Tat
Posted by: McQ on Wednesday, July 09, 2008

A couple of weeks ago, the Israelis put on a little demonstration over the Med as to how they'd probably conduct a bombing raid on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Today, Iran responded with a demonstration of its own:
Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards test-fired nine long and medium range missiles Wednesday during war games officials say are in response to US and Israeli threats, the state-run Press TV reported.

Iran holds large-scale military drill

Gen. Hossein Salami, the Guards' naval commander, was quoted as saying the exercise, dubbed 'The Great Prophet 3,' would "demonstrate our resolve and might against enemies who in recent weeks have threatened Iran with harsh language."

"Our fingers are always on the trigger and our missiles are ready for launch," the official IRNA news agency quoted Salami as saying.
So, point one - we have stuff too and it can hit Israel (and the US in Iraq).

But there was a point two as well:
Wednesday's war games were being conducted at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway where about 40 percent of the world's oil passes through.
Yes, if Israel hits Iran, Iran has numerous ways to make it very difficult for the rest of the world. It can, and probably would, shut down the Strait of Hormuz. That, at some point, would require action by a whole host of nations, to include the US.

What Iran is pointing out here is that a strike on them isn't going to be some isolated incident in which the deed is done and nothing happens. They're promising they can and, if necessary, will escalate the conflict.

The tensions continue to rise.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Shaping up to be...dare I say it....the mother of all battles.
Written By: looker
URL: http://

Or so the hysterical rantings of the usual suspects will go....

Written By: shark
URL: http://
It has been speculated amongst my friends that should Israel hit Iran (and frankly I suspect it will happen shortly after sun-down friday) Iran would try and strike at Israel and the US.

Which would, frankly, be the starting bell to Iran getting the world rained down upon them from the arir-strike forces from the carrier groups in the area.

Iran won’t be able to shut anything down, I suspect...
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
This is one of those "Fram Oil Filter" issues.

You can pay now, or pay later,...

Git ’er done...
Written By: Mark Cancemi
URL: http://
You mean it won’t be a cakewalk?
Written By: Retief
URL: http://
You mean it won’t be a cakewalk?
Well actually Retief, it just might be...the Iranians are second only to the Iraqis for military incompetence in the region. If the Iraqi’s hadn’t been so hapless they’d have beaten the will note that when the Iranians met a first rate military, the US in 1987/88 they had their heads handed to them...their Navy has NOT recovered in the intervening twenty years. Their Air Force is a joke, and I don’t think their army is any great shakes either, the IRGC is a corrupt bunch of poseurs that tried Revolutionary/guerilla tactics at sea in 1988 and they actually Retief I don’t tremble in fear about the Straits of Hormuz or the Iranians smiting us or the Israelis "Hip and Thigh."

Now anti-Bush bed-wetters such as yourself may be hiding under the bed OR waiting for the Obamessiah to come to power ...and when He smites the Iranians, I’m sure it will be in a just cause and have your full support.
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
You mean it won’t be a cakewalk?
Probably not....doesn’t mean it may not have to be done.

As this election illustrates- sometimes all our choices are bad ones
Written By: shark
URL: http://
That, at some point, would require action by a whole host of nations, to include the US.
What other nations? I don’t mean to denigrate the fine forces of the UK, Australia and Canada (to name the most likely naval candidates), or even the French who unbeknownst to many have some of the most elite special forces in the world, but who else on Earth has the capability to inject themselves into a theater half way around the world like the US? And of those who are even semi-capable in this endeavor, how many can inject anything resembling a fleet capable of holding the Staits open? The fact is that the US is not just the sole superpower, it’s the only power period when it comes to such international conflicts.
You mean it won’t be a cakewalk?
Who said it would be? Regardless of the fact that the Iranian military is simply no match for the US, either on land or sea (not to mention the air), I don’t think even the biggest braggart of a general or admiral would make such a claim. And I’ve never heard any politician make such a claim. So what strawman do you wish to slay?
Written By: MichaelW
the French who unbeknownst to many have some of the most elite special forces in the world
Ok, now really... I’ll believe a lot of BS, but I’m afraid that’s just pushing it.

Heh... Should we attack, we should brind a squadron of F-14s back online.

I’m sure the older pilots in the Iranian Air Force would like to see F-14s fly again. :)
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
the French who unbeknownst to many have some of the most elite special forces in the world
Ok, now really... I’ll believe a lot of BS, but I’m afraid that’s just pushing it.
What? You’ve never seen Bear Grylls drink his own urine? He learned that from the French.

As for Iran’s Great Phophet 3 demonstration, allahu akbar. I think it’s almost time to put the fear of Allah in them while we, at the exact same nanosecond, re-establish our credibility as the irrational actors in this tragedy. The dilemma now is, who do we nuke? Can’t be the Iranians because we don’t want them as friends 50 years down the road. Been there, done that back in the 70’s and Iranians smell bad.

I’m starting to think that the deterrence value of nuking Japan is starting to wear off.
Written By: Arcs
URL: http://
Isn’t it time for the Israelis to "go Gideon" on Iran’s collective butt?
Written By: Bilwick
URL: http://
Cakewalk? Depends upon the cake.

If we wanted to b*itch-slap the Iranians around for a while, knocking the ever-loving crap out of them (and that is a whole lot of crap) then the Iranians do not have much to stop us.

The Iranian Navy is basically a bunch of speed boats loaded with explosives hoping to get close enough to anyone so they can martyr themselves for the promised 72 virgins. Ain’t gonna happen. Result - lots of martyrs, no effect to our side - sorry about that, virgins don’t like losers.

The Iranian Air Force is made up of old US F-4s and F-14s and whatever was left of Sadaam’s Air force that flew into Iran to escape martyr-dom back in ’91. Whatever they can get airborn won’t last long. The only result there would be US and Israeli fighter jocks painting stars on the sides of their aircraft for the air-to-air kills they are going to get.

The Iranian Air Defense is made up of the same equipment Syria has on line. I don’t recall the Israelis having much trouble with the Syrians when they bombed the Nuke - er, uh, I mean the baby food facility in Syria. For the Iranians it will be like playing a video game at the arcade with the power plug pulled.

But all of this to what effect? The price of oil will explode to $250+ a barrel, the Iranians will still have a nuke capability in less than two years, and the Iranian people will now be solidly behind their Mullah masters against the Great Satan.
Written By: SShiell
URL: http://
In dealing with Iran, the problem is not Iran, but Russia, most specifically Putin.

Putin has been said to believe that the Mullahs are lunatics, but on the other hand Russia, what’s left of it, has a whole world of Islam at its borders and its own internal Islamic situation to ponder.

Then there is Russian prestige, which Putin cherishes.

Iran is a geopolitical island, run by millenarian clerics, and Putin is the guy in the middle, between Western worries about nukes and Islamic troubles, who has to decide how much a hammering the Iranians will cost him, or benefit him, and Russia.

He will never openly support an attack on Iran, but he can condemn it with faint damnation and then move in as a comforter and lecture the U.S. But the attack will not happen without his sign-off.

He certainly doesn’t want a war with the West, but the balancing act here comes down to "do any of us want those nutjobs to have nuclear weapons?"

Putin may have set too high a price for Bush. Such as "we take control of Georgia, and you say about that what we say about you’re attack on Iran."

Who knows. It might all come down to "go ahead and we’ll tell you how we’ll react after it’s done," a sort of field of grey where no one knows what to expect.
Written By: Martin McPhillips
There was no "secrecy" in planning for war with Iraq, Mr. Maszka, other than the secrecy of not explicitly telling the enemy what your precise war plan would be and even at that the enemy pretty much knew what the plan would be.

It was done right out in the open, with Senators and Congressmen at once demanding that Bush "go to the UN" and "get the approval of Congress" throughout 2002. Both of which he did. And both of which he got. It was no secret that troops were being deployed to Kuwait and Qatar. And there was no lack of bloviating from both sides of the aisle about what a menace Saddam Hussein was, and he was a menace.

All along after the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan a regime change was under discussion for Iraq, and a consensus was gradually built in that direction. It had been the policy of the U.S. government since late in the Clinton administration, in any case.

As for Iran, the Europeans have been trying to get the Mullahs to come clean on their nuclear programs for years now. So has the UN. The U.S. has been in constant backchannel discussions with the Iranians, always willing to make a deal, or add more sanctions.

The Iranians have gotten off scott free from the West for over a quarter century for their sponsorship of terrorism.

Written By: Martin McPhillips
A better approach to Iran would be negotiations.
And that hasn’t been happening for the last 15 years? Yes, through the UN and third parties but they have still occurred. And to what effect? Iran flipping the bird at the world.
While Fareed Zakaria agrees that there is no reason not to use sanctions and embargoes against states such as Iran, he suggests that we also need to “allow a viable way out.” That is to say, we need to negotiate and not merely mandate.
That is all well and good but you and Zakaria leave out one major obstacle to negotiations - Israel. Iran will not negotiate with Israel at the table even though the primary emphasis for their development of a Nuke capability is to use it against Israel.

So how do you propose to entice Iran to the table? By saying, "Pretty Please with sugar on top!?!"
Written By: SShiell
URL: http://
" secretly deploying troops"

Right. Nobody would possibly notice the disappearance or movement of over 100,000 troops and their vehicles , weapons, and equipment. Poof! They just disappear from their US and European bases and teleport to isolated locations overseas. Local businesses, particularly bars and restaurants, never notice that their customers (and profits) vanish. Etc.
What can one expect of someone who believes John Dean has enough credibility to cite.

Written By: timactual
URL: http://

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