Posted by: McQ on Thursday, July 10, 2008 USA Today has come up with 6 categories of voters who, it claims will "decide the election". Let's take a look. 1. True believers: 30% of the electorate - they break down 65% Obama, 33% McCain. 2. Fired up & favorable: 14% of the electorate - they break down 65% Obama, 35% McCain. 3. Firmly decided: 12% of the electorate - they break down 48% Obama, 50% McCain. 4. Up for grabs: 18% of the electorate - they break down 36% Obama, 41% McCain. 5. Skeptical & downbeat: 12% of the electorate - they break down 24% Obama, 35% McCain. 6. Decided but dissatisfied: 16% of the electorate - they break down 38% Obama 62% McCain. I'd say that breakdown pretty well categorizes all elections. You always have a group of true believers on both sides who, essentially are non-critical of their candidate and, at some point relegate principle behind popularity. Neither side is going to steal any votes from these categories. It is an almost visceral love that voters develop for their candidate. These are the folks who are most likely to develop the newest version of "[election winner here] derangement syndrome" should their candidate lose the election. You have seen a version of that with the Clinton supporters who can't find it in themselves to back Obama. The fired up and favorable and the up for grabs are, essentially, the same group, differentiated by one thing - one group has made up its mind and one hasn't. Both seem to find each candidate appealing, but one group has sipped a bit of the kool-aid and found it satisfying and the other hasn't yet. Interesting that those who have decided go for Obama and those who haven't mostly lean toward McCain. Those that picked their horse and are sticking with it are mostly done with the election process. They're not going to change their mind and the trick is going to be to get them out to vote. They give a slight nod to McCain. The last two categories could almost be labeled "Republican voters". Libertarians as well. I say that because those categories best reflect the attitudes I detect among most on the right. How anyone on the right could be a "true believer" or "fired up and favorable" considering the Republican candidate, is beyond me. For the right this is one of those 'hold your nose and pull the lever' elections. Unfortunately for the right, those are usually low turnout elections as well. So they had better have one heck of a GOTV program on tap for this one. Anyway, some great fodder for discussion. |
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