Posted by: McQ on Friday, August 01, 2008 Anyone know what happens in 94 days? Yup - the national election. Anyone know what happens in 60 days? Well yeah, lots of things probably, but one which might be considered more important than many others if the person happens to be interested in politics. In 60 days, 34 days before election-day, the Congressional ban on offshore drilling as well as oil shale exploitation expires. Note the word: "expires" - like in it goes away unless Congress votes to extend it. So if October 1st shows up with no action, the ban is gone, no longer in effect, kaput. Which brings us to the politics of this thing and I'm very interested in your thoughts as to how this will go down. We know that an increasing majority of Americans have tossed their environmental concerns under the bus and are clamoring for Congress to lift the ban and allow drilling. In fact, polls show anywhere from 55% to 75% want to see us busily engaged in bringing more oil and gas into the system. We know that increases in gas prices immediately effect every person in America by taking a bigger bite out of their paycheck. And the same person realizes that if it takes more out of their pockets, it takes more out of the pockets of those from whom they buy necessities as well. So higher fuel equals higher costs all around. We know that one of the primary planks on which Congressional Democrats ran on in 2006 was a promise to bring gas prices down. Instead they're up over a $1 a gallon and Republicans are not being shy about reminding everyone about this. We know, and it will most likely be especially true in this next month, that Congressional members are under increasing pressure to "do something" about it. We also know that Obama and Pelosi (Reid is wavering badly, which is not unexpected from Mr. Courage under Fire) are unalterably opposed to opening up the OTC or anything else. That brings us to September 30th. Something is or isn't going to happen that day. My questions: Do you think Democrats will quietly let it expire as a way of saving face (i.e. not having to vote to allow more drilling)? Do you think some Democrats will insist on a vote to allow it to expire so they can go on record as being for drilling? Do you think Pelosi, et. al, will come up with a scheme where they vote to let it expire if a number of key compromises and accommodations are given to Democrats (and will Bush veto it if they do?)? What do you think the likely scenario for that day will be and how will it play out? |
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