Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, August 12, 2008 Russian troops are apparently bent on destroying the Georgian military as they continue their thrust into Georgia. The mission of Russia now appears to be "regime change" and it compares the invasion of Georgia to the US invasion of Iraq: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin chafed at the criticism, likening Russia's moves against Georgia to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and using the American presence there as justification for Russian calls for the overthrow of the U.S.-allied Georgian government.I've actually been waiting for this. It is the most logical way to rationalize the invasion even if it isn't a particularly good analogy for Russia to use. But one thing it does point out is that Russia believes if "regime change" is a legitimate reason for the US to invade another country, it is certainly just as legitimate for Russia to do so. And while you can argue the differences between Iraq and Georgia until you are blue in the face, the basic premise holds, like it or not. This is, in my opinion, one of the stronger arguments against the war in Iraq and what it provides as a rational for military moves such as that Russia is now making. Of course the question the US has to ask is, "is Georgia worth going to war over?" The unfortunate answer for Georgians is "no". Even if the answer were "yes", militarily we'd be hard pressed to do it. But going to war with Russia, at any time, is the least desirable option, and Russia knows it. Georgia is in an area of the world that militarily offers Russia short supply lines, and us extended ones. Right now Russia has air supremacy over the area. And it controls the Black sea as well. Not a situation in which we would want to commit our military. And we must realize that it would probably be only our military were we to decide such an intervention is necessary. None of our "allies" are likely to send any combat troops, even as a source of oil for Europe is threatened. So while it is heartbreaking to see and hear Georgians wondering out loud where the US is (and expecting reciprocity for their participation in Iraq), they must be realizing by now that other than humanitarian assistance, there is no other aid coming. There is no cavalry riding to their rescue. What Georgia painfully points out is, superpower or not, there are limits to what the US can do for its allies. While many are criticizing the US response to the crisis and recommending various types of action against Russia, in reality, Russia is going to do what it feels it needs to do and no country is really in a position to stop them. Russia's move into Georgia will certainly damage their standing in the world, but, ironically, strengthen their position in the region. And right now, obviously, Russia finds that to be a more important position to pursue. Exactly the opposite will accrue to Georgia's erstwhile allies. They will righteously denounce Russian's invasion, but when all is said and done, their influence in the region will be severely damaged. When faced with the reality of Russia across the border vs. the promises from the West, regional states are more likely now to pay much closer attention to what Russia is all about than the West. Is Georgia worth going to war over? No. But the result is a severe loss of influence in the region and a Russia that, if it gets away with this, won't hesitate to do it again if it feels it to be necessary. UPDATE: Russia announces an end to military operations (unverified at this time): President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a halt Tuesday to Russia's military operation in Georgia, but his country remained defiant in the face of mounting international criticism of the action against its neighbor. |
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