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Two things the Palin pick says about McCain, and four three things it doesn’t
Posted by: Bryan Pick on Saturday, August 30, 2008

Jim Vandehei and John Harris at Politico have another piece out in the same vein as “5 things Biden pick says about Obama”, about McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin.

The first two are saying the same thing:
1. He’s desperate. [...] Politicians, even “mavericks” like McCain, play it safe when they think they are winning — or see an easy path to winning. They roll the dice only when they know that the risks of conventionality are greater than the risks of boldness.
[...]
2. He’s willing to gamble — bigtime. Let’s face it: This is not the pick of a self-confident candidate.
Okay, let’s hear it: who would have been a better pick? Who would have really been a safer pick, given McCain’s narrative and history? Who would have come without baggage, who would have reinforced McCain’s message, who could have reached both to the base and the swing states at the same time?
3. He’s worried about the political implications of his age. Like a driver overcorrecting out of a swerve, he chooses someone who is two years younger than the youthful Obama, and 28 years younger than he is. (He turned 72 Friday.) The father-daughter comparison was inevitable when they appeared next to each other.
If he was worried about the political implications of his age, why would he select an obvious contrast to stand by his side? This is like saying Obama is worried about the political implications of his skin color, since he selected Biden for VP.
4. He’s not worried about the actuarial implications of the age issue. He thinks he’s in fine fettle, and Palin wouldn’t be performing the only constitutional duty of a vice president, which is standing by in case a president dies or becomes incapacitated.
Err, the vice president also serves as the President of the Senate these days. But this is otherwise a fair point.

At least, until Vandehei and Harris expand on their point to say:
McCain has made a mockery out of his campaign's longtime contention that Barack Obama is too dangerously inexperienced to be commander in chief.
McCain played a deeper game, is all – not much deeper, but one step ahead of Politico. With this pick, he invited the Democrats to make that argument because the only way to use that against McCain’s VP pick is to open their own Presidential candidate up to the same criticism – which only reinforces McCain’s existing narrative against Obama. If Palin, after ten years of elected office, two years of governing a state Obama wants to challenge, and shaking up the establishment, is dangerously inexperienced, Obama is definitely not ready to lead on Day One. After all, it’s an open question whether Palin will be called to serve as President any time in the next four to eight years if McCain is elected. It’s a certainty that Obama will have to be ready on January 20 if he is elected. And every American who isn’t already invested in Obama can do that math.
5. He’s worried about his conservative base. If he had room to maneuver, there were lots of people McCain could have selected who would have represented a break from Washington politics as usual. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman comes to mind (and it certainly came to McCain’s throughout the process). He had no such room. GOP stalwarts were furious over trial balloons about the possibility of choosing a supporter of abortion rights, including the possibility that he would reach out to his friend.
Leaving aside for a minute that it’s incongruous to argue that Palin has no national experience and then say that she doesn’t represent a break from Washington as usual, this is in part a fair point. As I pointed out in my post yesterday, her background and bearing are definitely playing well with the base (which has increasingly needed shoring-up in the Mountain West and in some parts of the South), but they also bring something to the Rust Belt battleground.
6. At the end of the day, McCain is still McCain. People may find him a refreshing maverick, or an erratic egotist. In either event, he marches to his own beat.
That he does. But I repeat: this was audacity, not recklessness. It completely captured the news cycle and gave his campaign some much-needed initiative, to put Barack Obama on the defensive just as he was coming out of his rock-show convention with his fists up.

Five of the points (I’m being generous by not calling it six) the Politico tried to make were about McCain being “worried” in some fashion or another. But anyone looking at the scrambling response from the Democrats yesterday can see who was worried, who was on the defensive, who was struggling to put together a narrative.
 
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I don’t know if McCain was so much worried as strategic here. He probably blunted Obama’s bounce, and HIS convention is coming up. Expect that Obama lead to evaporate in short order, especially as McCain shored up his base.

In addition, his base is not only shored up, they’re energized. Palin is a big boon to the McCain GOTV ground game.
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
But anyone looking at the scrambling response from the Democrats yesterday can see who was worried, who was on the defensive, who was struggling to put together a narrative.
Just look at MK’s posts the last two days. He/she/it is completely unhinged, and it’s both humorous and frightening at the same time...
 
Written By: meagain
URL: http://
He probably blunted Obama’s bounce,
He did. The Gallup daily tracking poll today held at 49-41, the same 8-point lead it showed for Obama in yesterday’s poll. If tomorrow’s poll shows a narrowing to something like 47-43, that would be it for Obama’s post-convention bounce.

Yesterday’s poll did not catch the full extent of the probable bounce, which should have shown up in today’s poll. The announcement of Palin appears to have cut it short.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
Echoing what shark said above, one man’s “desperate” is another man’s “pragmatic”. Is doing what you need to do to get elected desperate? If so, then Obama’s delivering a competent speech at the DNC is an act of desperation.
 
Written By: Dave Schuler
URL: http://www.theglitteringeye.com
LOL! You guys are so out of touch with reality. Politico is right, I think you guys don’t have a clue of just what’s going on out there. Watch and learn. I’ll go away now and lurk, but this election is Obama’s to lose, McCain is desparate, and Palin is a sign that he has no choice but to gamble big time. I guarantee you: McCain will lose an electoral landslide. I just can’t believe how completely out of touch you are! (Shaking my head laughing). I’ll be back in November to say "I told you so."
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
McCain was trailing, right? So, any choice he made would’ve been painted as desperate. Unless it was so bad that it couldn’t possibly have helped him, then it would be painted as "safe". He’s in "no-win" territory from the media here. I’d point you to these three "Report Cards" from CNN, and you tell me I’m wrong. Report Card:Biden, Report Card:Obama, Report Card:Palin.

I mean, how can it be a "desperate" gamble, if she’s such a bad pick she has no hope of helping him?


 
Written By: Linus
URL: http://
But anyone looking at the scrambling response from the Democrats yesterday can see who was worried, who was on the defensive, who was struggling to put together a narrative.
Don’t mistake that "scrambling response" as just a campaign organization caught napping.

They were having a feral reaction. They sensed that something totally unlike themselves and their buffoon mentalist had entered the jungle. And that it had a thousand angles on them.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
I guarantee you: McCain will lose an electoral landslide. I just can’t believe how completely out of touch you are! (Shaking my head laughing). I’ll be back in November to say "I told you so."
The audacity of hope.

Unlike Dr. Erb, I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I eagerly look forward to his return in November. I can’t wait to hear the excuses if Obama loses.
 
Written By: Robby
URL: http://
Boris Erb:
this election is Obama’s to lose, McCain is desparate, and Palin is a sign that he has no choice but to gamble big time.
Ah, no Boris. About six weeks ago this election was a referendum on Obama, i.e., his to lose. Since then McCain has gotten inside on him and denied Obama the traditional July-August lead that Democratic candidates build. McCain isn’t desperate, he’s going for the jugular with what is indeed a calculated high risk, but only a high risk in taking someone relatively unfamiliar to the public.

Palin’s merits more than mitigate that risk: she has won plaudits from the conservative base, which McCain needed to bring home. They love here. She’s right on top of the big issue: energy independence. She is indeed an extremely appealing independent woman. And she has instant street cred in the small towns and rural parts of swing states. When she gets there, she’s going to know those folks and they are going to know her.

If the Obama campaign criticizes her, as the VP candidate, for a lack of experience, that turns right around on the "community organizer," who is their presidential candidate.

And Obama is the weakest and most vulnerable Democratic candidate since, hell, George McClellan. You do recall that Obama spent 20 years being "mentored" by Jeremiah Wright? Right, Boris? That might not impress voters in California and New York, but we’ll see what everyone has to say after they have a fresh look at what went on in Obama’s church, where he took his kids. That’s before the Bill Ayers, Bernardine Dohrn issue fleshes out.

And in case you missed it in the other thread, Boris, how does it feel to be in on the ground floor?
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
LOL! You guys are so out of touch with reality.
One of the things I really like about Palin, Boris, is that goofy academics just won’t get her. Yet they’ll think of Obama as supremely electable.

John McCain has done exactly what he needed to do. He got inside on Obama. Pierced his buffoon mentalist bubble. With Palin he has set the stage for an enthusiastic ground game from the base to get out the vote.

Obama has a nauseating, inexcusably radical record on abortion.

Like a lot of goofy academics, he opposed the surge, and demanded defeat in Iraq.

He has a racist preacher, terrorist friends, and corrupt fixer associates. Yes, indeed, he’s the Change! candidate.

Worst of all, he and and his wife have consistently talked down America. Go on over to the NY Times and take a look at where David Brooks’ column is on the "most emailed" list. (It was at No. 1 this morning.) And give the column a read.

Obama might not only lose this election, McCain might wind up wiping the floor with him, and produce coattails in House and Senate elections.

Obama has tons of money, they say. So have many, like Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney. Tons of money.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
I will agree that Palin is a Bit of a gamble, but it is also an inspired pick in so many ways, and Palin seems to be someone in the McCain mold (or at least how he sees himself), a reformer. Actually she is much more of a reformer than McCain, but that is his self image.
 
Written By: kyleN
URL: http://impudent.blognation.us/blog
Obama might not only lose this election, McCain might wind up wiping the floor with him, and produce coattails in House and Senate elections
I think the race now slightly favors McCain, but I would not count on any coat tails.
 
Written By: kyleN
URL: http://impudent.blognation.us/blog
I think the race now slightly favors McCain, but I would not count on any coat tails.
I understand. Obama’s bounce has probably taken him to his peak, at 49%. What I see coming is a shift in the women’s vote where McCain pulls roughly even with the buffoon mentalist, perhaps slightly ahead, and wins the men’s vote by a large margin.

If, and it’s a solid if, voters start to resent the recklessness that Democrats have shown in nominating Obama, then we could see some downticket rejection of Democrats.

That would not be surprising if you take a look at the approval rating of Congress.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
LOL! You guys are so out of touch with reality. Politico is right, I think you guys don’t have a clue of just what’s going on out there. Watch and learn. I’ll go away now and lurk, but this election is Obama’s to lose, McCain is desparate, and Palin is a sign that he has no choice but to gamble big time. I guarantee you: McCain will lose an electoral landslide. I just can’t believe how completely out of touch you are! (Shaking my head laughing). I’ll be back in November to say "I told you so."

Written By: Scott Erb
Ahh. Desperation noted.
 
Written By: Don
URL: http://
Something else to consider is that the Dems were going to pile on the Veep, no matter who it turned out to be.

McCain is a tough target. "He’s old" and "McSame" are the best the left can do. The ageism, aside from being humorous, isn’t playing (the last old Republican we put in office was wildly popular). "McSame" doesn’t have legs, either (his nickname is "The Maverick" for crying out loud.)

But the Veep pick ... ah. Here’s someone they can attack with wild abandon.

Gov. Palin is pretty dang formidable. A son in Iraq. She chose to give birth to a child with Down’s Syndrome, rather than abort. She fought corruption in her own party. Pro-drill, but tough on big oil. In short, she doesn’t just talk the talk.

So what gets attacked? Experience. Except she has more experience than Barack Obama. Every sling and arrow thrown at her supposed lack of experience only reflects poorly on the guy at the top of the Dem ticket.

This was no act of desperation. This was a coldly calculated decision.

And mark my words: In the debates she will hold her own with Biden when the subject is foreign policy. Her son is in Iraq and her state borders Russia. She is not as ill-informed as people think. Prediction: Republicans will start asking "Why isn’t she running for president?"
 
Written By: Ronnie Gipper
URL: http://
You guys are so out of touch with reality. Politico is right, I think you guys don’t have a clue of just what’s going on out there.

Pretty funny there Doc....So, we’re out of touch? You base this on:
1) Extensive research interviews carried out in the Faculty Lounge of the Political Science/Geography/Sociology/History Dept. at the U of Maine? Quizzed everyone at the Department Happy Hour/Wine and Brie Tassting party?; or
2) Do you have any polling data to back your assertion?

Because really only 2) counts for anything...I mean I don’t have a PhD in Poli Sci but in the few gradduate courses I have taken, we Poli Sci folks tend to like to have some NUMBERS to support our claims, it’s the whole Qunatitative Revolution thing, you may have heard of it. Any hoo, if we’re "so out of touch" I’m sure you have some FACTS to back your claim up...like the FACT that McCain fund-raising topped $ 7 million in the 36 or so hours since the announcement-which would tend to support a thesis CONTRARY to your position...

So go back to lurking and when November rolls around I’m going to enjoy "watching" your discomfiture as McCain wins and Obama concedes. Which will then lead to four more years of listiening to you and your ilk explaining how you was "robbed" and that if the American Sheeple had REALLY known what was going on they’d have voted correcxtly.
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
LOL! You guys are so out of touch with reality. Politico is right, I think you guys don’t have a clue of just what’s going on out there.
Is it just me or did Erb sound exactly like MK for a moment there. I think that says a lot.
 
Written By: capt joe
URL: http://
So since the convention, lets look at where thigns are:
- no post convention bounce for Obama - check
- current polling McCain 47, Obama 45 - check
- since VP pick McCain has raised another 7 Million - check

- landslide for Obama - har har har har - yeah sure Erb
 
Written By: capt joe
URL: http://
That whole ’Gender Gap’ thing is bogus, anyway. When Reagan clobbered Mondale in ’84, the MSM *had* to find a bright spot. Their idea? Well Reagan won the male vote by about 58/42, and he only won the female vote by about 51/49. Ha! There was a ’gender gap’. (Oddly enough, it wasn’t seen as a male gender gap for Dems.)

Also, it was typically put as a comparative percentage, as in "Reagan got 13.7% fewer votes from women than from men" rather than the actual 7 point difference.

Anyway, that crap has hung on ever since. Looking at the internals shows a different story. Approximately 11% of the overall vote total in a presidential election is African-American (I’m going from memory here, over the past 24 years, but that’s close), of which about 70% is female. 70% of 11% is 7.7% of the total vote. At least 90% of that (more likely 95%) goes to Dems. Thus, something like 7% of the overall vote is African-American females voting for Dems. The rest of the female vote splits pretty evenly. And married females go for Republicans, on average. Plus, the African-American vote is concentrated in largely Blue States.

Al Gore lost the 2000 election because he lost the male vote in swing states big.

So. McCain doesn’t have to get a whole lot of female votes, he just needs to keep the male vote and peel off some female voters who lean Dem. Like hockey moms who have kids and work hard. You know, those unionized bitter types who cling to their guns and their religion. Hard to believe that Palin might appeal to those types, huh?
 
Written By: jorgxmckie
URL: http://
So. McCain doesn’t have to get a whole lot of female votes, he just needs to keep the male vote and peel off some female voters who lean Dem. Like hockey moms who have kids and work hard. You know, those unionized bitter types who cling to their guns and their religion. Hard to believe that Palin might appeal to those types, huh?
Not only to those women, but to Reagan Democrats who are absolutely sick of the politically correct feminist women the Democrats always throw at them.

The Obama train stopped in March. That was his peak in national politics. After that it became a question of whether voters would punch his ticket or go with old-shoe McCain. It was a referendum on Obama.

McCain turned that around with Palin. Other than for "making history" there is no reason to vote for Obama. He’s not Change! He’s Chicago! He’s not Hope! He’s the Beltway!

He’s also Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, Father Pfleger, Tony Rezko, and "they’re clinging to their guns and religion." Well, yes, Barack they do have their guns and religion, and you have a racist preacher and a terrorist.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
And after sticking it to two of Politico’s writers, I have this to report:

Palin electrifies conservative base (Jonathan Martin, Politico)

She sure did.
 
Written By: Bryan Pick
URL: http://www.qando.net

 
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