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And he hasn’t even spoken yet ... (update)
Posted by: McQ on Thursday, September 04, 2008

John McCain delivers his acceptance speech tonight at the RNC and already, at least according to a CBS News poll, he's obliterated the Obama convention bounce:
The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent to 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote.

This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.
Now obviously it is one poll, but if you're a Dem, you could be excused for becoming just a little nervous about what seems to be going on in this election.

For Republicans there are still problems with their voters. The much discussed "enthusiasm gap" for instance. And while I doubt this new poll includes the Palin speech it does include the Palin nomination. And that seems to have made a difference:
McCain has also closed the enthusiasm gap some with Obama, but it still exists. Fifty-five percent of Obama's supporters are enthusiastic about their choice, and now so are 35% of McCain's. Last weekend, just 25 percent of McCain's supporters were enthusiastic about him, compared to 67 of Obama's supporters.
One other point on this particular poll:
In the poll, Obama continues to have a lead with women voters, 43 percent to 38 percent, while McCain has the edge with men, 46 percent to 41 percent. As has been standard in this campaign, voters under age 45 are backing Obama, while older voters are supporting McCain.
You saw the Nielson numbers on both women and older voters below. I'm going to be interested to see if these numbers, specifically those pertaining to women, change in next week's poll.

And indies?
Independents in this poll are divided. In the poll conducted over the weekend, Obama had a six-point advantage with this group, but now the lead is three points, 39 percent to 36 percent.
Starting to trickle over to the McCain side. As I said, although this poll is interesting, it is one of many. But to me, the most interesting poll is going to be the ones which deal with the effects of the Palin speech on the race.

UPDATE: Like I said above, that's one poll. Gallup still has Obama up by 7.
 
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
Yeah, and she hasn’t spoken yet, for the purpose of this poll . . .
 
Written By: Don
URL: http://
Take note: you can count on the elderly voting. The same cannot be said of the young.
 
Written By: Bryan Pick
URL: http://www.qando.net
Look: The Maine Mosquito said this was over.

What the hell are you people trying to pull?
 
Written By: Billy Beck
URL: http://www.two—four.net/weblog.php
Well, Billy, it may in fact be over.
 
Written By: Don
URL: http://
Eagleton option, eh Erb?
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
Scott’s too busy to post here...except when he’s not.
 
Written By: looker
URL: http://
The much discussed "enthusiasm gap" for instance.
Enthusiasm is little compared to determination...
 
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
The same cannot be said of the young.
Thank Christ...
 
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
Eagleton option, eh Erb?
Well, I heard (second hand) that Biden said he’d "attempt" to debate her, so perhaps the Eagleton option will be applied in this election . . .
 
Written By: Don
URL: http://
You know, I notice that these "polls" are from the Dems AFTER their convention. Of course they would be in the lead!

You would think that polling would cease for a few days until BOTH conventions are over. But noooooooooooooooo! The liberal media has to keep harping how "Obama has finally reached 50%."

Whoopde-do! 50%! Considering the ground, Obama should be up by 15 points, not 5 or 6. And notice that not one poling organization is mentioning the possibility of the Bradley-Wilder Effect (where whites tell pollsters they will vote for a black candidate, then do something different in the polling booth).

Douglas Wilder was up by 15 points in Virginia on election day, and won by 1 point. Has anyone seen a swing of 14 points like that?

And the polls don’t account for that. But I do. So don’t listen to polls. This campaign is different.
 
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