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Interesting Activity At Intrade
Posted by: MichaelW on Monday, September 08, 2008

Expanding upon McQ's post about the "enthusiasm gap", go over to Intrade today to see how the market for winner of the 2008 Presidential Election is shaping up. At this writing (approx. 11:50 AM EDT), Obama is down 4.6 and McCain is up 4.3 points. The candidates are essentially tied, with the bid/ask price for Obama and McCain respectively standing at 51.6/52.0 and 47.1/47.5.

David Post made a big deal out of the spot price in the futures market the other day (as if market movement was irrelevant):
Wisdom of Crowds?

Bad news for you McCain supporters (including those of you who took me rather forcefully to task for having the temerity, in earlier posts, to suggest that Sarah Palin is grossly and perhaps even grotesquely under-qualified to be President of the United States): The Iowa Electronic Market, which is a real-money futures market allowing individuals to trade in "future contracts" based upon the occurrence or non-occurrence of real-world events, has McCain futures for sale at a deep discount compared to Obama futures.
Post was roundly criticized in the comments for misunderstanding how these markets work. I'm wondering if we'll see something over at the Volokh Conspiracy today noting the dramatic change in the Intrade market (I can't seem to get the Iowa market to load, so I have no idea where it stands currently).
 
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Iowa Market Latest:

Low High Avg Last
09/07/08 DEM08_WTA 0.560 0.622 0.585 0.560
09/07/08 REP08_WTA 0.390 0.440 0.415 0.440

It’s a good time to buy REP08 if you think McCain will win.

 
Written By: Grimshaw
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Having read McQ’s last post, and now this post from MichaelW, it got me to thinking. How many of us (ok, me) just lie outright to pollsters and then giggle incessantly about it when you hang up? I don’t know why, but for whatever reason, when I see a pollster pop up on my caller-id, if I don’t ignore it (90% of the time), I’ll answer the phone and then answer their questions the exact opposite way I would in a voting booth.

I know these pollsters probably think I’m a psychotic, frothing-at-the-mouth, leftard liberal (but I repeat myself), but I can’t help it.

Is this just me?
 
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The President of the University of Illinois, B. Joseph White, and the University Counsel of the University of Illinois, Thomas Bearrows, contacted Kenneth C. Rolling, the former Executive Director of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge (CAC) and a professional colleague of Barack Obama for many years, prior to the release of CAC records to the public late last month and offered Rolling an opportunity to recommend to the University which records of the CAC held at the University’s Chicago campus (UIC) should be restricted from public access.
 
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