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Palin and women (Update)
Posted by: McQ on Monday, September 08, 2008

ABC is out trumpeting its post-RNC poll and as expected, McCain/Palin has a slight post convention bump.

However, there is one part of the poll worth noting solely because it goes to the root of the claim by Democrats that picking Sarah Palin for VP was too cynical a move to ever attract women to the Republican ticket:
White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences.
Read that carefully - the word is "conventions" - plural.

So obviously, unless you think John McCain suddenly came up with the necessary arguments and charisma to be responsible for a 20 point shift, well it had to be something else.

Want a hint?
Some of McCain's biggest gains in this ABC News/Washington Post poll are among white women, a group to which "hockey mom" Sarah Palin has notable appeal: Sixty-seven percent view her favorably and 58 percent say her selection makes them more confident in McCain's decision-making. Among those with children, Palin does better yet. And enthusiasm for McCain among his female supporters has soared.
Cynical bastard.

UPDATE: I love stuff like this. Noam Scheiber at TNR's "The Stump" about to explain what scares him about Sarah Palin. However:
Before I get to that, let me explain what I'm not scared of, which is that Palin has somehow altered the demographics of the race. I have a hard time believing that female Hillary supporters, or Rust Belt men, are suddenly racing to support McCain because of Palin. For one thing, vice presidential nominees almost never attract demographic groups that the nominee can't attract on his own. People vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom. More importantly, if that historical pattern somehow broke down this year, it would probably hurt the GOP ticket more than it would help. People may love Sarah Palin, but they don't think she's ready to be president.
Two words Noam - "see above".
 
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
While I’ll take anything I can get to keep The Annointed One out of office (and my wallet!), the idea that so many people decided to vote McCain just because of the gender of his VP pick is... discouraging. Identity politics is stupid no matter what side of the aisle you’re on.
 
Written By: docjim505
URL: http://
"Palin and Womyn" so she’s a lesbian, that’s what you’re saying? Well it’ll help with certain demographics, I guess...
 
Written By: Joe
URL: http://
Word to the Left. Keep picking on her and especially her family. Please.

That is all.

 
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
Just wait. It will all invert, and Erb will be vindicated.

Don’t laugh.
 
Written By: Don
URL: http://
Not surprising the Dems reaction. They took the demographic shift of the Obamacans as a given, never fully recognizing that that group generally consisted of anti-McCainicans and hate Bushicans. So insular the left world, they just presumed everyone adored the One as much as they.

And this is the group that lambastes the Bush Admin for not trying to understanding our adversaries.
 
Written By: bains
URL: http://
Let’s see forward, to election night:

Olbermoron: "Yes, Chris [Matthews]. Colorado goes for John McCain, and now we believe that he has enough electoral votes to be elected President. Obama cannot win.

Prissy Chrissy: "Keith, this is amazing, that this 72 year old pedantic old fart came back to win the election. Amazing."

Olbernazi: "I have a hard time believing that female Hillary supporters, or Rust Belt men, suddenly supported McCain because of Palin. Let’s go to Chuck Todd, who predicted an Obama win, for the numbers. Chucky?"

Pride of Chucky: "Yes, Keith. It looks like McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin, who will be the first female Vice President in American history, sealed this election for him. Women went for McCain, as did white men, working women, rust belt workers, across the board. It is incredible what that pick did."

Dimbulbermann: "Well, to me, Chuck, that was a cynical move that was aimed to get voters to vote for this ticket, and even though your numbers plainly back that up, I just don’t believe that women and men would vote against having a black man as President. I don’t believe it."

Chrissy: "Neither do I, Keith. Men and women just don’t fall for stuff like that. They should have voted for Obama/Biden, and for them not to shows how irresponsible they are. Shame on them."

 
Written By: James Marsden
URL: http://
The shift in white women’s support from Obama to McCain is all the more interesting in view of the poll’s finding that former Clinton supporters (presumably male and female) break 72% for Obama, 23% for McCain — essentially unchanged from their 70% Obama / 20% McCain split before the Democratic convention.

So, the white women lured to the ranks of McCain-Palin boosters don’t seem to be former Hillary backers. Or am I missing something?

Another big post-convention shift according to the ABC poll — a 26-point shift, as they might have put it —
is in the battleground Midwest, where [McCain’s] moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.
Wow, if the poll really reflects the reality on the Midwestern ground. And I’m pretty sure some 43% or more of those voters would be white women...

Well, however all this works out demographically, I think, docjim, that there’s much more about Palin than her gender that’s drawing the new folks under McCain’s tent. Even as a practiced politician, she has a real "Mrs. Smith goes to Washington" vibe that Obama, for all his outsider pretensions, can no better match than any of his Ivy League colleagues. People who are sick of the status quo and disinclined to cynicism really respond to this. That she’s a woman adds to the novelty and fun (of watching, for instance, the Dems and their media try to counter-attack her) but it isn’t the main thing in the way that Obama’s race frankly is, to many of his supporters.
 
Written By: Linda Morgan
URL: http://
For one thing, vice presidential nominees almost never attract demographic groups that the nominee can’t attract on his own.

Except, as the media keeps reminding us, McCain could kick over at any second. ANY SECOND!

So yeah, it makes sense to vote for the veep this time around.
 
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