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Checking In With Intrade
Posted by: MichaelW on Friday, September 12, 2008

I have to admit that I'm a little surprised by the latest polling showing McCain with a steady, yet slight, lead. I figured that the post-Convention bounce would have worn out by now, and that Palinmania would be offset by more serious reflections on her credentials (which, is virtually non-existent). But Intrade seems to confirm the McCain swing, showing him +2.5 to 53.0/53.1 (bid/ask), and Obama down 1.6 to 46.4/46.8 as of 12:22 EDT.

Of course, all these polls are really telling us is that McCain is waxing while Obama is waning, and for all intents and purposes, this race is tied.

I expect it to come down to the wire, and that on election day, the polls will show Obama with a slight (within the margin of error) lead. What happens after that is anybody's guess at this point.
 
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It is really good news for the following reason. I always thought that as the election got close that Obama would lose a lot of his momentum since people who are swing voters start to think about it really just before the election.

Many of those are just not going to vote for him when they start to compare his experience with McCain who is a well known guy with high favorables among moderates.

I just did not expect it to narrow so soon. If you add to that, the very real fact (worth about 2-3%) that people simply lie to pollsters, that always favors the GOP.
 
Written By: kyleN
URL: http://impudent.blognation.us/blog
I’m bracing myself for 4 more years of "Why is the country too stupid to agree with us?", mixed with some rioting, and your usual "diebold stole the election for them" conspiracies...
 
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
What happens after that is anybody’s guess at this point.

my prediction is we won’t know the president-elect on November 5th. Hit & Run had a good write-up today (see below). Going farther out on a limb, i’ll predict a court challenge in New Mexico.

http://www.reason.com/blog/show/128760.html
 
Written By: tarylcabot
URL: http://
Michael

Your post lost me almost immediately when you wrote:

’...Palinmania would be offset by more serious reflections on her credentials (which, is virtually non-existent)...’

Her credentials, which, is [sic] virtually non-existent? Nice.

In what worldview is being a mayor or a governor non-existent? Is it because she’s from Alaska rather than New York or Illinois or Delaware?




 
Written By: KB
URL: http://
I think if it comes down to basically tied going into the polls, Obama wins on the strength of his organization. Say what you want about Obama, but the primaries certainly show he has a strong GOTV operation, and he likely still has a lot of his organiztion left from the primaries to do so. This has been somewhat ameliorated by Palinmania on the right, but McCain simply doesn’t have the organizational backing Obama does at this point, IMHO.
 
Written By: Joe Canadian
URL: http://
Her credentials, which, is [sic] virtually non-existent? Nice.
No, "serious reflection" is virtually non-existent. Sorry. Bad sentence construction on my part.
 
Written By: MichaelW
URL: http://qando.net
my prediction is we won’t know the president-elect on November 5th. Hit & Run had a good write-up today (see below). Going farther out on a limb, i’ll predict a court challenge in New Mexico.
I’ve predicted the same thing, although with the court challenge coming here in Virginia (although, I am considering that Colorado may be the place as well).
 
Written By: MichaelW
URL: http://qando.net
I expect it to come down to the wire, and that on election day, the polls will show Obama with a slight (within the margin of error) lead.
Why?

Obama’s attraction is with superficials. Otherwise he’s really a weak candidate.

He should have been leading by 15 or 20 points several months ago when he was leading by 7 or 8.

The McCain campaign has been running circles around him.

Further, I expect McCain/Palin to outperform Obama/Biden in the debates.

I expect a small McCain poll advantage going into the election.
 
Written By: Don
URL: http://
If McCain is ahead on election day, game over. The Bradley effect will give him another 10 points.
 
Written By: arch
URL: http://
No, arch, it won’t give him 10 points. It will give him a large chunk of those who are claiming they’re "undecided," however, especially since those who are currently claiming they’re undecided are disproportionately old, white, male and lean-Right.

So if the "undecideds" decide this election, the odds are good that Obama loses.

I owe this all to Sean Oxendine.
-=-=-=-=-=-
Don, I sure hope Palin does well in the debates. She’s done well in past debates, but I expect the media to be more actively hostile to her this time around, and she got rattled with Gibson. It’s not what I hoped for, but it’s true. Biden may screw something up just because he’s Biden, but Palin needs to bring her A-game.
 
Written By: Bryan Pick
URL: http://www.qando.net
and i think you’re incorrect, Joe.

Obama’s organization was key to him winning virtually every single Caucus in the Primaries. But the general election is NOT a Caucus. Keep in mind, he didn’t do well in states that had straight up primaries, particularly big states. When Washington State is within the margin of error, you have a problem
 
Written By: Joel C.
URL: http://

He should have been leading by 15 or 20 points several months ago when he was leading by 7 or 8.
In all fairness, the dead and non-existent are hard to reach with phone polls.

(Let me put on my Carnac hat.) Prediction ...

Obama will win. McCain will win the popular vote and Obama the electoral college. Unlike 2000, when recount after recount held the same results, reports will trickle out over the course of Obama’s presidency of widespread vote tampering and fraud in urban areas (i.e. the exportation of Chicago-style politics.) Sometime around 2010, Obama will become derided as the "lamest of lame-ducks" as a Republican majority is voted in to the House and Senate.

2012, Hillary challenges the incumbant, and wins her party’s nomination. The Republicans choose a firebrand conservative (perhaps Palin?) and win. Peace is declared in the middle east, they start putting real sugar in Coca-Cola again, and Phelps wins 9 gold medals in addition to the nobel prize.

("Global Warming" is replaced with concerns over "Global Mellowing.")
 
Written By: Ronnie Gipper
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