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Palin took it, and for reasons different than you might think
Posted by: McQ on Thursday, October 02, 2008

I'll have to disagree with Dale on this one. I thought John McCain won the last debate with Obama for the very reason Dale thinks Biden won this one.

But McCain didn't - at least if we're going to go by poll numbers.

I think what you're going to see is the low expectations that had been built by the MSM along with the two heavily edited interviews with Gibson and Couric that hurt her image also put her in a position to win.

All she had to do is be something like the person that showed up on the stage at the RNC that night in St. Paul and she was the winner. Well apparently that's who she is and she displayed that tonight and more.

Additionally, I think you're going to find out that while both of them threw some clinkers out there in some of the claims they made, Biden was just making much of it up as he went along - much more than Palin. That'll be making the rounds tomorrow.

Lastly, this was about connecting with voters. That's it. That's what it is all about. There's no question in my mind who, of the two, connected best. And that was proven later by the Frank Luntz focus group who almost unanimously thought Palin won because she "connected" with them.

Don't know if it is a game changer. Don't know if it will have any significant value to the campaign - after all her partner is John McCain. But she took the win.

Remember - we junkies talk about a lot of inside baseball stuff and try to analyze policies and how well they answered questions.

Most voters, especially those just now paying attention, operate at a much more visceral level. They identify with those with whom they feel most comfortable, who seem most like them, who seem to best identify with them, and who seem to understand and have the same concerns as they do.

Joe Biden did just fine, but the person who voters were most likely to viscerally connect with tonight, just as Obama was the other night, was Sarah Palin.
 
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I’ll give the McCain campaign credit: they got that list out fast. Political junkie that I am, I caught about 9-10 of them and started yelling at the TV. In a just world, he would have been called on it during the debate. However, I’ll settle for the MSM doing their actual job and reporting on it.

No, I don’t plan to hold my breath.
 
Written By: physics geek
URL: physicsgeek.mu.nu
Interesting that Ifill gave Biden both first and last word. As well, she tried to link Palin to Cheney.

After that effort to make her look dumb and undone in a single night.

If the MSM wasn’t trying so hard to get the big O elected this election would not be anywhere this close.
 
Written By: capt joe
URL: http://
interesting what Noonan thought (yeah after the comment off mike)
 
Written By: capt joe
URL: http://
Given that everyone expected a drooling idiot, she did just fine.

Needs seasoning....but a nice job
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
I think what you’re going to see is the low expectations that had been built by the MSM along with the two heavily edited interviews with Gibson and Couric that hurt her image also put her in a position to win.
Heavily edited? What the hell does that even mean? Did ABC and NBC doctor the tapes, or cut words out, or leave out some relevant context? And if so, what context? Watching the tapes, it’s obvious that is not happening. Even the McCain campaign is not making this complaint. You are out there on your own, McQ.

There are no facts to support your claim about heavy editing. And you know that.

Do you really think Americans are that stupid? Couric asked her basic questions and Palin’s responses were played in their entirety. Do you even know what the word "edited" means, much less the word "heavily"?

I know you and the rest here do not want Obama to be president. But do you really need to go this far?
 
Written By: mkultra
URL: http://
Joe Biden did just fine, but the person who voters were most likely to viscerally connect with tonight, just as Obama was the other night, was Sarah Palin.
Allow me to suggest that you study up on Projection Bias.

For my part, Palin did just fine but didn’t do anything to change the downward trajectory of the McCain/Palin campaign. :)

This bit from Biden was the only thing that either of them said that broke through into visceral connection land:
Look, I understand what it’s like to be a single parent. When my wife and daughter died and my two sons were gravely injured, I understand what it’s like as a parent to wonder what it’s like if your kid’s going to make it.

I understand what it’s like to sit around the kitchen table with a father who says, "I’ve got to leave, champ, because there’s no jobs here. I got to head down to Wilmington. And when we get enough money, honey, we’ll bring you down."

I understand what it’s like. I’m much better off than almost all Americans now. I get a good salary with the United States Senate. I live in a beautiful house that’s my total investment that I have. So I — I am much better off now.

But the notion that somehow, because I’m a man, I don’t know what it’s like to raise two kids alone, I don’t know what it’s like to have a child you’re not sure is going to — is going to make it — I understand.

I understand, as well as, with all due respect, the governor or anybody else, what it’s like for those people sitting around that kitchen table. And guess what? They’re looking for help. They’re looking for help. They’re not looking for more of the same.
 
Written By: Retief
URL: http://
There are no facts to support your claim about heavy editing. And you know that.
You mean other than the fairly choppy edits?

Comon, MK, this is damned lame, even for you.

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
MK’s idiocy aside:
Don’t know if it is a game changer. Don’t know if it will have any significant value to the campaign - after all her partner is John McCain. But she took the win.
Did anyone note the Luntz group’s call on this? Palin, all the way. Stands in rather stark contrast to the CBS and CNN polling. Of course, I defy anyone to tell me the last debate CBS called for the Republican, save Reagan. I think they even called for Dukakas. And someone correct me if I err, here but aren’t CNN and CBS co-owned, anymore?

Look, gang... after the first McCain /Obama debate, it took a few days for reliable numbers to emerge. Single points of argument are easy to get fairly quick and reliable polling results on. Multiple point events like debates, particularly when they’re fairly close on presntation as this one was, tend to take somewhat longer to play out in the polling numbers. Between now and then, it’s all spin.

In this case by the time the numbers on the veep debate come back in any thing resembling reliability, we’re going to be hip deep in the 2nd McCain /Obama debate, so I’m not sure we’re get a reading on the veep debate ’in the clear’ at all.
 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
Ultimately does it matter? I guess to the average slob it kinda does, but I think Dennis Miller was right when, commenting on how important it’s become for a candidate to look good on television, "Somewhere Paddy Chayevsky is laughing his @ss off." Besides, if you’re pro-freedom, what choice do you have? If Palin came out and said that the "chief towel-head" in Iran was named Ali Baba, would you then want to vote for the Red-Diaper Baby and the Careeer State-shtupper?
 
Written By: Bilwick
URL: http://
I watched the debate last night with a left-leaning but Obama-loathing friend. (I’m right-leaning and Obama-loathing). We’re both fairly neutral on McCain, she loathes Palin, and I was rooting for Palin to come out, kick butt and take names (she just seems cool - can shoot a moose, dress it, feed her five kids and husband, run a state, and still look fantastic!) and just generally make me feel better about voting Republican. Here’s what I saw:

- Palin is not ready for the big show. She rarely answered the questions, she rarely refuted any of Biden’s claims about McCain, and she just seemed to be looking for hooks for her sound bites.

- Did any of you pick up that she’s from an energy-producing state? That’s right, Alaska is energy-producing. Oh yeah, she only said it 20,000 times.

- Biden looked good and he looked experienced. As for the lies/misspeakings, very few of the people who watched the debate are going to read about them later. My impression kept being - how in the world did the Dems pick Obama over this guy??? It was funny watching Biden force himself to say "My - and Obama’s - policies over and over again. You could tell it just killed him.

- Palin did a great job nailing Biden on Iraq and using his primary quotes about Obama against him.

- I agree w/McQ and Dale - enough with the greedy Wall Street talk!

In the end, I’m voting McCain. And I’m going to pray hard every night that he survives the full term. Watching the debate made me more uneasy about the choice. That said, I can’t go O. For my more left-leaning friends, the Palin pick made them feel better about Obama, when they were leaning McCain.
 
Written By: Amy
URL: http://
I remember when this was a libertarian blog, rather than a shill for the GOP...
 
Written By: TheDude
URL: http://
btw, Palin was no more accuate with the facts than Biden

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27001026/
 
Written By: TheDude
URL: http://
Oh quit whining. It was a commentary about an event which took place last night. If you disagree says so. But the fact that I think, for the reasons stated, that someone won a debate has nothing to do with the party or person in particular.

 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.QandO.net
I remember when this was a libertarian blog, rather than a shill for the GOP...

McQ sold out to Bush and the GOP a long time ago over Iraq. His timing was, shall we say, inauspicious. Ever since then, well . . . . what you see is what you got. A shame really. A truly independent libertarian blog would be most helpful about now.
 
Written By: David Shaughnessy
URL: http://
Palin stopped the bleeding of her public image, which bleeding was the major project of the MSM over the past several weeks.

She also, I think, showed that her instincts are good — much better than Old Joe’s — and that she is not intimidated.

All in all, this gets McCain’s campaign off the "Palin is an idiot" trope that the media had locked into, and it may have ramifications down the line vis a vis how much voters continue to trust mainstream reporters and commentators.

And I assume that the McCain campaign knows what it has to do next.

It’s not about Biden or Palin beyond this point. It’s about Obama. And if the McCain campaign wants to win, it can win.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
McQ sold out to Bush and the GOP .... A truly independent libertarian blog
Projection.

Funny to hear a shill for Obama talk about independence.

You need to read his posts. The only point that is even common is a belief in having to win in Iraq. Everything else he completely disagrees with the GOP on.

It was always hilarious to hear the left complain about "with us or against us" when their entire evaluation of an opinion’s merit was based on that. You guys are so far into the coolaid that you can’t even think independently of left/liberal talking points
 
Written By: capt joe
URL: http://
I think what you’re going to see is the low expectations that had been built by the MSM along with the two heavily edited interviews with Gibson and Couric that hurt her image also put her in a position to win.
I think you may be confused, McQ. It wasn’t some strangers voice dubbed over video of Palin with her mouth moving, those were her actual words coming out.

Hope that helps.
Most voters, especially those just now paying attention, operate at a much more visceral level. They identify with those with whom they feel most comfortable, who seem most like them, who seem to best identify with them, and who seem to understand and have the same concerns as they do.
You betcha!
But in the end, don’t you think the vacuous answeres and constant repitition of campaign slogans would pile up and start to look unflattering?

 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
GOVERNOR PALIN is ’real’, and Americans could feel it and connect with it. Palin is running for V.P ... but, let’s take a look at the qualifications, judgement, and experience of Obama, who is running for President. Obama had 25 years to fulfill the potential he displayed as a rising start at Harvard Law School ... and, how did he live up to that potential? He chose to align himself with anti-American racist, Jeremiah Wright for TWENTY YEARS ... along with Ferrahkan, Rezko, Ayers, and others. As a community organizer, he registered thousands of voters in Chicago ... then, when he ran for the state legislature, he took away their votes, by disqualifying his opponent (a black woman) on a technicality. As a U.S. Senator, he voted present 160 times ... he never called a meeting on the Afghanistan committee he chaired (although he NOW says we must shift all our military from Iraq to Afghanistan). He claimed Foreign Policy experience from a 9 day whirlwind photo op to 6 countries. And, he spent almost half of his tenure neglecting his responsibilities as a U.S. Senator, so he could run for President. Senator McCain served America honorably for 22 years in the military. He proved his love for America, as well as his honor, integrity and character, by refusing early release as a P.O.W., even while being tortured. He served America as a ’contributing’ U.S. Senator, working across the aisle, for 20 years. Governor Palin will learn the details of the current national and international issues ... but, what Obama never learned is Character. He can’t be trusted ... ask Jeremiah Wright, a friend of 20 years, who Obama betrayed for personl ambition. The American people can recognize ’real’ character and integrity in McCain and Palin, and that’s why she won the debate by 87% on the FOX text messaging poll.
 
Written By: Howard
URL: http://
And if the McCain campaign wants to win, it can win.


Wow, McPhillips. McCain "can" win if it "wants" to?

Back in May, you predicted it would be a wipe out by McCain.
I’ve got it 55-45 for McCain, and I’m saying that the Obamanauts will need to struggle to get him his 45.
Then in late July you took it up even more.
A few months back I set my prediction at 55-45 McCain.
It should be 20 points.
Now were down to McCain "can win if he wants to".


 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
David Shaugnessy’s post reminds me of something Jean Shepherd used to say: "Will someone please tell me where to go to sell out? I keep hearing of people selling out, I’ve been trying for years to sell out, and I can never find out where it is you can go to do it."

C’mon McQ, spill the beans: how many sacks of gold did Dubya give you? Or was it the Armageddon deal of no income taxes ever again? Inquiring minds want to know.

I’m always amused by how people deep in the Left cocoon are so sure what they believe is correct that no one would advance contrary ideas unless they were Paid Lackeys of the Power Elite, or something.
 
Written By: Bilwick
URL: http://
But in the end, don’t you think the vacuous answeres and constant repitition of campaign slogans would pile up and start to look unflattering?
I’d say it depends on how much attention you pay to her (or any candidate) overall. I sat watching the Obama/McCain debate grumbling "stump speech" any number of times as both wandered through their answers. My guess is one heck of a lot of the umpteen million that watched had never heard a stump speech from either of them.

They all revert to stump speeches in debates and I know that (as do you) because I follow these things very closely.

I doubt the vast majority of voters, especially those who’re just now tuning in, a) knew if she was repeating campaign slogans or b) cared.

What was more important was how she came across more than how spot on her answers were. It was whether she was able to make herself acceptable vs. unacceptable. Pretty much the same measure used to grade Obama on the first debate. In both the case of Obama and Palin, a tie was a win.

Obama wasn’t supposed to be able to hold his own on foreign policy with John McCain. The perception was he did. Sarah Palin wasn’t supposed to be able to hold her own against the experience of a 36 year Senate veteran. The perception is she did.

By doing that both at least tied the debate by reassuring voters that they were minimally competent enough to do the job they sought.

And doing that is what puts it in the "win" column for each of them.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.QandO.net
I have long said that McCain can win if he wants to win.

And I do think that the margin could/should have been ten points for McCain.

And that McCain could have/should have beeen ahead for good right now.

That’s why I’m back to the question of does he want to win?

If he wants to win, he can win.

I believed that I saw evidence leading up to and at the convention that he did want to win, and that evidence resulted in a huge surge for him that put him up by six, with similar and rather remarkable surges in battleground states.

Since then we’ve had this economicus interruptus that has diverted attention from the campaign and thrown the electorate into a flux.

But now we have a four-week sprint. Obama appears to be at his top point. That lead looks big at roughly six points, but it is a woozy lead.

My assumption is that the McCain campaign knows what it has to do. If it does what it has to do, McCain will win. But that again comes down to whether or not McCain wants to win. I don’t expect a ten point win, but it is still possible, and I suspect that even a dullard such as yourself can figure out why it is still possible.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
Obama wasn’t supposed to be able to hold his own on foreign policy with John McCain. The perception was he did. Sarah Palin wasn’t supposed to be able to hold her own against the experience of a 36 year Senate veteran. The perception is she did.
Yes, those were two key outcomes.

The Biden-Palin thing is over. She made a comeback. And the base will continue to rally.

In the McCain-Obama debate, Obama did a smooth job, and the reaction would generally be, among average swing voters, that he’s O.K.: "He’s O.K., we can get by with him."

But Obama is no longer the Messiah, not outside of the nutjob Democratic base, and maybe not even there.

He’s just John Kerry with a tan. Another nasty big-mouthed liberal.

Now, McCain also accomplished a great deal in that first debate. Anyone here can pick up on that if they care to.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
If he wants to win, he can win.
I don’t think McCain wants to win by tearing Obama down and being "mean" to him, showing him to be an evil, invidious, or unperceptive person. He just doesn’t have that killer instinct for a fellow Senator.

I hope I am proved wrong.

Yours, TDP, ml, msl, & pfpp
 
Written By: Tom Perkins
URL: http://
He just doesn’t have that killer instinct for a fellow Senator.
That remains to be seen. We will know shortly. He strikes me as a man with plenty of killer instinct.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
"There are no facts to support your claim about heavy editing."You idiot. Do you know anything about television production? Right straight off the bat: a child with the most cursory instruction could identify dozens of edits between cameras in that interview.

Jesus H. Christ on a banana-peel: Shut the fu*k up, you moron.
 
Written By: Billy Beck
URL: http://www.two—four.net/weblog.php
...and I suspect that even a dullard such as yourself can figure out why it is still possible.


Heh. You’re the one predicting that McCain will win by ten points and I’m the dullard!?
Having fun in dreamland, McPhillips? I hear the weather there is nice this time of year.

I can tell that looking a fool upsets you. You wrote that McCain will be ahead by ten when we were at the "paying attention" stage. And that the "Obamanauts" would struggle to get him to 45%.
Your prediction was foolish then, it’s even more foolish now.
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
Hey, its Tom Perkins... Long time, no read man. How have you been?

Still wishing that McCain was still in captivity by the NVA? Still wishing that McCain was still being tortured?

"Wishing that John McCain remain captive and tortured!?!?"

That would be a far, far better thing for the country than him spearheading the derogation of the 1st Amendment. It’s more important than he is.

And he doesn’t get that.

Pogue, I am a nice guy to people who don’t plan on thieving what is mine by right. McCain is in the other category.

Yours, TDP, ml, msl, & pfpp


Oh wait... I see you may have changed your mind now.

I don’t think McCain wants to win by tearing Obama down and being "mean" to him, showing him to be an evil, invidious, or unperceptive person. He just doesn’t have that killer instinct for a fellow Senator.

I hope I am proved wrong.
That’s quite a jump there Tom. From wanting McCain to still be captive and tortured to wanting him to be POTUS.
That’s one helluva leap dude.

Far from your previous position...

Goddamn McCain to hell and the horse he rose in on.

Yours, TDP, ml, msl, & pfpp
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
I think you may be confused, McQ. It wasn’t some strangers voice dubbed over video of Palin with her mouth moving, those were her actual words coming out.
Give me roll of mag tape and a razor blade and I’ll have you saying anything I want. Not some stranger’s voice. Actual words.
I remember when this was a libertarian blog, rather than a shill for the GOP...
So, what you’re saying is that libertarians can’t see which... Obama or McCain would be of less damage to the libertarian cause, and respond accordingly? Go ahead, David, tell us how Obama would cause less damage and I’ll laugh in your face.

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
Oh, by the way, David... Are you planning on saying Billy Beck is sucking up to Republicans?

(Snicker)
 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
Heh. You’re the one predicting that McCain will win by ten points and I’m the dullard!?
Indeed, you are the dullard.

I’m telling you what I think the spread should be based on the ideological spread of the candidates. McCain is center right, which is essentially where the country is at. Obama is a far Left liberal, even farther Left than his most liberal voting record in the Senate reveals.

And his shopping cart comes with a whole array of unpleasant goods, none of which he should be able to get out of the store with, especially the stuff he has under the cart.
I can tell that looking a fool upsets you. You wrote that McCain will be ahead by ten when we were at the "paying attention" stage. And that the "Obamanauts" would struggle to get him to 45%.
Your prediction was foolish then, it’s even more foolish now.
Funny, I see a guy who belonged to a racist, black supremacist church for 20 years. A white candidate with the equivalent background would have been hooted off the national political stage long ago. I’m thinking that even factoring in the "let’s try not to mention that fact about the brotherman," it’s a ten-point loss if the voters see Obama clearly.

I’m getting a strong impression of how the Democrats and their media friends don’t want that to happen. Let’s see how that works out for them this next month.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
That’s quite a jump there Tom. From wanting McCain to still be captive and tortured to wanting him to be POTUS.
That’s one helluva leap dude.
Not even slightly.

All other things being equal, I’d still rather the VC had kept him—McCain/Feingold is every bit that bad.

But all things aren’t equal, the other thing is Obama. He’s no better than McCain on the 1st amend., and so far in practice he’s worse.

McCain’s campaign hasn’t threatened political ad placer’s with imprisonment.

You might consider why the Democrats keep on coming up with worse candidates than the Republicans.

Yours, TDP, ml, msl, & pfpp
 
Written By: Tom Perkins
URL: http://tomdperkins.blogspot.com
He’s no better than McCain on the 1st amend., and so far in practice he’s worse.
/=
He’s no better than McCain on the 1st amend. by either’s theory , and so far in practice he’s worse.
Little editing required. TDP, ml, msl, & pfpp
 
Written By: Tom Perkins
URL: http://tomdperkins.blogspot.com
Pogue:

This place has become ClownTown since McQ became a Republican shill. I very well remember all the bile aimed at McCain from all quarters here way back then; in fact, I was the one defending him. McCain "should be" 10 points ahead, and he "would be" if he "really wanted it." Just say it: McCain should go racist. I don’t think it’s worth 10 points but maybe 6. Unfortunately for you, that still won’t be enough. Obama wins by 100 EVs.

I also remember McQ’s sensible view of the Iraq War which, inexplicably, change dramatically one fine day. BTW: We have LOST in Iraq. The Bad Guys have achieved just what they wanted: they have kept the U.S. bogged down in nowheresville for 5 years while they reconstituted, regrouped, and retrained in Pakisitan/Afghanistan. Meanwhile, our addiction to oil has only increased and our economy is a wreck.

If you come across a real libertarian blog let me know.

David

 
Written By: David Shaughnessy
URL: http://
I note, David, you avoided my question.
Let’s try again, and see if you can handle this one;

So, what you’re saying is that libertarians can’t see which... Obama or McCain would be of less damage to the libertarian cause, and respond accordingly? Go ahead, David, tell us how Obama would cause less damage and I’ll laugh in your face.
 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
As I commented in the other VP debate thread, I, too, think Palin came off well ahead of Biden, even before his multiple errors and fabrications are factored in.

Unlike many, I’m not least bit surprised she did so well. I researched her a bit back in April, and the press was nearly all good and remained so up until McCain announced her as his VP. The media painted Reagan as an idiot, and they’re trying to do the same to Palin. Reagan wasn’t an idiot, and niether is she. I do not, under any circumstances, believe what I see on network news unless it is live and unedited.

In fact, it was Biden who surprised me. The Dems should flip their ticket.

Obama is clearly the least qualified person in the race. Bizarro world.
 
Written By: Augustus
URL: http://
David, you convinced that that your side is losing. Why? Because your post is indistinguishable from mkultra’s. Same crazy bull dodo.

Oh by the way, CNN agrees that Palin is more intelligent than Biden.

What is with the Obama youth? You guys are scary insane.

Sucks to be you.
 
Written By: capt joe
URL: http://
So, out of curiosity’s sake: Who ought a libertarian be voting for?

 
Written By: Synova
URL: http://asecondhandconjecture.com
I am extremely concerned about Gov. Palin’s future son-in-law Levi Johnston, dropping out of high and not registering to vote. What message are we sending to our future generations?
 
Written By: Myles
URL: http://
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URL: http://www.spacenow.de/riggo
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URL: http://generate.kilu.de

 
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