From My Inbox Posted by: Dale Franks
on Friday, October 17, 2008
I'm not exactly sure how I got on this email list, but here you go.
Obama headed to 360+ Electoral Vote Landslide Win Do you think Sarah Palin can field dress an elephant? Obama 367 to McCain 171 electoral votes * Obama likely to win Florida, Ohio, Virgina, N. Carolina. * Democrats have decent chance to get 60 US Senators, ensuring a filibuster proof Senate majority. * Al Franken likely to be US Senator from Minnesota!! * Demo House/Senate candidates even stronger than Obama, Demo margins to increase in both chambers. * GOP, abandoning conservative principles, has richly earned this demolition/ ass whipping. * 84% chance of Obama win at www.intrade.com * Also check out http://electoral-vote.com/ and www.538.com and http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html * Holy Cow, Obama may even win NORTH DAKOTA!
INEVITABLE. No problem acting like that if it is the truth. Let me spell out it for you, Obama is I-N-E-V-I-T-A-B-L-E to be the next president ... unless he commits some sort of mind boggling mistake. Like Edwin Edwards used to say, the only way Obama could lose would to be caught in bed with a live boy or a dead woman. In this case, it might have to be a farm animal on videotape.
This is going to be a blow out. Obama could very well win ALL FOUR of Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. All big electoral Republican states in the past. That is in addition to Nevada, New Mexico, Penn, Wisc, Minnesota. How about buckle of the Bible Belt - Missouri and even Republican forever Indiana for crying out loud? I think Obambi will win ALL of those above states and tack on N. Hampshire, also. How about North Dakota - even that is trending Obama!
In my mind Obama has 95%+ chance, although the political trading markets are a bit lower with Iowa University's political market at 86% Obama and www.intrade.com at a measly 84%. Iowa has Obama getting 54% of popular vote vs. McCain 46%. If true, that is an electoral college landslide.
Let's not forget about the vastly superior GROUND GAME that Obama has and that is NOT being reflected in current polling. That long Demo primary was great for registering voters and identifying the Democratic base. That alone will be immense tools for Obama forces to use.
The Republican base to this day hates McCain, they only put up with him because he put Palin on the ticket. Nobody is busting their ass getting out the vote for McNasty. I sure am not; I've got more important things to do like organizing my sock drawer.
McCain's whole strategy was to somehow get nominated then you must vote for me over Hillary. Guess what? Hillary is NOT on the ballot. Black JFK, or black Reagan or black Jesus is on the ballot. Soon to be the first black president, not you Bill Clinton.
The racist vote against Obama is just not going to matter because most of them live in states like KTY, TENN, SC, ALA, LA that Obama is not going to win anyhow. Besides there will be plenty of inner city black racists voting FOR Obama in key places like Philly, Cleveland, Detroit, and East St. Louis. And even Virginia and North Carolina should see massive black voter turnout for Obama that could really skew things his way.
There just is NO grassroots enthusiasm for McCain. Are you kidding me??? And the hard core right simply does not hate Obama like they hated the Clintons. They may even hate McCain as much as they don't like Obama.
Have I mentioned MONEY that Obama is going to whack McCain with like a 2x4 for the last month? Money to buy a channel loop all day running ads, money for TV every-freaking-where, money for mailers, money for GOTV efforts. Money, money, money and it is getting easier every day to raise that money because folks like to invest in the INEVITABLE WINNER, which is going to be Barrack Hussein Obama.
How about that timely STOCK MARKET CRASH favoring Obama? Heck, I and a chicken might could even get elected under these conditions. But McCain has a solid plan because he says “the fundamentals of our economy are strong.” NOT! His campaign all but ended with that comment.; Phil Gramm says we are a nation of whiners. Well let me tell you what McCain is: have you ever seen the propped up corpse in the movie "Weekend at Bernie's" - well, that corpse Bernie Lomax is McCain for the next 3 weeks.
Speaking of death, Sarah Palin can field dress a moose, well, do you think she can field dress an ELEPHANT? Because one political party is a big stickin corpse that will be needing a lot of clean up or "field dressing" pretty soon.
So let's sum up what Obama has going for him:
1) ahead in the polls, which do NOT take into account his far superior GROUND GAME in the swing states 2) his GROUND GAME, volunteers, organization, superior voter identification. 3) MONEY advantage ... and it is easier to raise more of it every day; everyone loves a winner 4) grassroots ENTHUSIASM among Demo base, liberals and blacks 5) STOCK MARKET CRASH to be blamed (unfairly) on just the party in power, soon to be OUT of power, the GOP. 6) he is running against either a corpse or a batty old grouch, take a pick. 7) discredited GOP with Bush's approval rating at a sub-Artic 28% or even less.
Before I go, let me mention ELECTION DAY EXIT POLLS which are going to be extremely favorable to Obama because a bunch of liberal female grad students are always the poll takers and they skew the results. The exit polls are going to be THROUGH THE ROOF favorable to Obama. He will again under-perform them once again, but it won't matters. The early exit polls from Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire will really rock your socks, further demoralizing the Republicans. He could be ahead by double digits in those swing states, but hold on to win by just 4-6%, still an amazing performance.
And get this, local Democrats for Congress and Senate will do EVEN BETTER THAN OBAMA!! Mitch McConnell could even lose in Kty, and he does that Obama might even win Kty? Man it is going to suck to be a Republican on the night of November 4th and yes the election will be called EARLY THAT NIGHT because of Obama's win in East Coast swing states.
It is very likely to be an election BLOWOUT with Obama garnering 350+ electoral votes. Worst case scenario is just winning with 300+ electoral votes.
By the way, I am voting for McCain, but he sucks ... and swallows. But we won't have to worry about him in about a few weeks.
In sum, it is ALL BUT INEVITABLE that Barack Hussein Obama will be the 44th president of the USA.
I don't think he will be that bad of a president. He seems a like a decent guy and a family man ... and at least he is not a sociopath unlike a lot of previous presidents!
So, the take-away: An Obama Presidency is inevitable.
One thing I wonder about, there is clearly an Obama enemies list, teams of lawyers trying to intimidate ordinary people and political opponents, $800,000 contribution to ACORN clearly trying to register 10’s to 100’s of thousand of fraudlent voters. Obama’s two major opponents in his Senate race had sealed court records of their divorces published in newspapers. Is there any reporter alive who remembers Watergate? It seems to me that political dirty tricks were considered much more reprehensible back in the 70’s than now.
Obama’s gonna win (gloat, gloat) Obama’s gonna win big (gloat, gloat) So are the other Democrats (gloat, gloat) But I am voting for McCain, even though I hate him and all he stands for, so you should believe me when I say that Obama’s gonna win (gloat, gloat)
"and at least he is not a sociopath unlike a lot of previous presidents!"
This sentence rather gives away the game. As far as I can tell we’ve never had one "sociopath" president, much less "a lot." Obviously the writer is referring to Bush, and while calling him as such is already demonstrably untrue (and throws the final handful of dirt onto the casket of on an already ridiculous missive) I do wonder what other presidents he would consider outright sociopaths. Nixon is the all too easy stock answer, but where would one go from there? The proposition is absurd on its face.
The sad thing is that he is probably right. But look on the bright side. The Democrats will inherit a pretty shiatty and unstable situation and they can go ahead and blame republicans for a while, But after awhile they will start being blamed.
Also, their policies are likely to make things worse. Right now the Republicans sort of need to be swept out of office so that they can figure out what it is they really stand for, recruit a bunch of new candidates, and come back as a new party with fresh ideas. Let’s face it. the current and recent former elected republicans have no credibility at all, and no one wants them.
This is a milder version is going on in the press right now.
Now, normally if the vote is a done deal, voters from both sides might stay home.
However, the Obama camp probably believes that their voters are more free to vote (ie they just didn’t get done 9-10 hrs of work) and that many of their voters want to be part of history. That they want to be able to say they voted for the One or a Black man.
I hate to say it but they are probably right. Portraying this thing as a done deal will probably stop more McCain voters from going to the polls than Obama voters. So expect the "done deal" idea to be pushed hard in the media over the next few weeks.
As far as I can tell we’ve never had one "sociopath" president, much less "a lot."
The sociopath label just means a person has a anti-social personality disorder. One of W’s few strengths is that he’s quite sociable and stable, so he’s probably the worst candidate for that label.
Nixon was paranoid about Jews and so forth towards the end, but I don’t think being anti-Semitic is a personality disorder. I think he had a bunker mentality, but again I don’t think that’s a disorder.
Clinton was arguably a clinical narcissist. The classic case was the infamous crocodile tears video where he was attending a funeral and the moment he saw cameras he started to cry. He always based his decisions about people on whether people liked him, and what to do to maximize their affection.
Obama sounds like a megalomaniac, but he’s actually worse. His beliefs are squarely rooted in Marxist eschatology when he says "we are the ones" to bring about change. Rather, Marxism says that a new age is inevitable and just requires a little prodding to bring it along. If a few eggs get broken to make the omelet, it’s no biggie.
Martin, I hope you’re right, and feel all this "election is over" stuff may actually work to BHO’s disadvantage. No good McCain news is gonna be reported. Bad news will be headlined or exaggerated. And there is still time for an October surprise. Didn’t I hear McCain and Hillary were chatting?
Which is an actual good thing at least in that it means Obama will lose.
I tend to believe as well that McCain will pull it off. If so, it’ll be thanks in very large measure to the conservative Christians and other assorted pro-lifers he brought on board with Palin — in other words, thanks to Palin. Committed pro-lifers are foremost among the groups that won’t be discouraged from voting by any of this Obama’s-done-won hoopla. In numbers, enthusiasm and determination, they essentially match that portion of the electorate eager to vote for Obama primarily because he’s African-American. (I’m not saying most of Obama’s supporters fall into that category.)
Who could have imagined even three months ago that the religious, socially conservative Rupublican base that so despised McCain would be the force to(perhaps) win the race for him?
It’s going to be a closer race than current polls suggest, but unless some external event emerges or some amazing buyer’s remorse sets in, a McCain victory strikes me as unlikely. Obama is going to run out the clock on McCain like he did with Hillary.
I think the majority of Americans just want to chuck out the old and take their chance on the new. That Obama has gotten this far and didn’t embarrass himself in the debates is good enough. It’s not a well thought-out approach, of course, and I believe it will be cost our country dearly, but there it is.
It has emerged: Joe the Plumber. In two ways: first, the "spread the wealth around" thing is thin gauze indeed for the real intent behind Obama; second, the way that "Joe" was set upon by the Obama camp: show us your papers, Joe.
or some amazing buyer’s remorse sets in,
Happening as we post.
a McCain victory strikes me as unlikely. Obama is going to run out the clock on McCain like he did with Hillary.
But Obama didn’t beat Hillary at the polls. He won because black leaders announced that because he was slightly ahead of her in the actual voting that they would not tolerate superdelegates "taking" his non-victory away from him.
Unless you count the Mainstream Media as the superdelegates in the general election, there are no superdelegates to put Obama over the top this time.
I would not have McCain ahead at this point. I would prefer more favorable polls from the contested states. But I would not want McCain to be ahead right now, not the way this election has taken shape. I think that every time Obama gets up and opens his mouth on the stump he is killing himself: he is the best argument not to vote for him. He’s snotty, he’s full of s**t, and I can’t imagine that people will be pleased to listen to it from the bully pulpit for four years.
This is a reverse 1980, in many respects. Obama is getting a long, hard look because people do want "change," whatever that is, and they do like the fact that he is black, despite the frequent implication from the Obama campaign that there is a racist faction out there that will never vote for him. That faction, if it even really exists, is way far offset by those who want to vote for him because he is black.
But in the end, I believe, that the majority are going to say, "Nope, not that change, not this guy."
They’re going to realize that Obama is the wrong guy. And some will even realize that he’s a wrong guy.
Today’s Gallup likely-voter tracks have Obama up 4 with the expanded likely voter sample and up 2 with the traditional likely voter sample.
How that plays with the various state-by-state polls is still somewhere in the polling fog. My impression is that the state-by-states are slower to catch trends than the national.
But let’s assume that the two likely voter polls that Gallup does daily (three-day averaged) have it about right. What does it say? To me it says that Obama is an electoral dog, and that the more you look at him, the less you want to vote for him.
McCain has been hit with everything that the Mainstream Media can throw at him. The ratio of late-night comedy hits on him v. Obama is something like 7-1. You have every Hollywood celebrity, plus jerk-offs like Matthew and Olbermann, attacking McCain and Palin with abject vehemence.
Yet there is McCain, two points behind Obama in the Gallup poll with just two weeks plus three days to go. In a horserace that’s just where you want to be positioned.
Martin — I hope you’re right and I know some Americans agree with your analysis not to vote Obama. I certainly do. I even find Obama to be a mild sort of sociopath — full of ambition and charm, and not the slightest self-doubt or compunction about his lack of qualifications for the immense job of the presidency and the harm he could do.
However, it seems to me that America has changed since McGovern’s catastrophic loss to Nixon in 1972. I thought that when the big financial tsunamis began hitting the country that Americans would have sheered away from the effete, leftist Obama in large chunks in favor of a no-nonsense, old values American leader like McCain. But they didn’t. Instead Obama’s lead ballooned to double digits.
Yes, the race has tightened a good deal since then, but another financial wave could hit the beaches any day now between here and the polls, and the gap could widen again.
To be sure, McCain has done well considering all the big media guns pointed at him and the immense financial advantage Obama has, but I’m not optimistic that it will be enough.
another financial waveanything could hit the beaches any day now between here and the polls, and the gap could widen againanything could result.
As to pre-election polls:
Reviewing the polls printed in The New York Times and The Washington Post in the last month of every presidential election since 1976, I found the polls were never wrong in a friendly way to Republicans. When the polls were wrong, which was often, they overestimated support for the Democrat, usually by about 6 to 10 points...
Reading newspaper coverage of presidential elections in 1980 and 1984, I found myself paralyzed by the fear that Reagan was going to lose.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan beat Carter by nearly 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent. In a Gallup Poll released days before the election on Oct. 27, it was Carter who led Reagan 45 percent to 42 percent.
Zogby tends to be all over the place. I check Rasmussen more often than most because it’s a simple poll sampled daily. I don’t rely on its absolute numbers but the deltas over time which show Obama’s lead widening again from 4 to 6 over the past four days.
Of course, I have noticed that polls consistently favor Democrats, so I do expect a discount on the Democratic vote come polling day.
I still think McCain can win, but I’m considering it less likely as time goes on, barring some surprising development outside the McCain campaign’s control.
We are not electing 0bama, we’re electing the devils’ (George Soros) that put him up on that post (see: Post Turtle). i.e. the Manchurian Candidate. If he can’t speak without someone pulling his lip strings, then it is up to the intelligent people of this country to find out who is really behind the curtain before it’s too late. As for polls 1) Most sheeple won’t admit that they won’t vote for a minority. 2) Normal people like to lie to pollsters just to mess them up, it’s just plain fun. 3) When the New York Lies and Boston Democrat call their 90% Democrat base, what result would you expecting? Polls predicted Dewy would win in 1940, Carter in 1980 and Kerry for 2004... Stick to the game plan, get all your friends, neighbors and relatives on board, and hope the commies get complacent. Hope for the best, plan for the worst. I wonder what Irelands’ immigration policy is?
Just because Obama is intelligent and has an amazing personality doesn’t make him prepared to run our country. His lefty illuminati politicians in DC think they’ve found some puppet to do their dirty work and the American people are falling for it.