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This Thing Ain’t over!
Posted by: Dale Franks on Wednesday, October 29, 2008

You know, I'm beginning to beleive that McCain will win this thing!
Could the polls be wrong?

Sen. John McCain and his allies say that they are. The country, they say, could be headed to a 2008 version of the famous 1948 upset election, with McCain in the role of Harry S. Truman and Sen. Barack Obama as Thomas E. Dewey, lulled into overconfidence by inaccurate polls.

"We believe it is a very close race, and something that is frankly very winnable," Sarah Simmons, director of strategy for the McCain campaign, said yesterday.
Wow, Obama is collapsing! McCain is surging into election day! This thing is turni—

Huh? What does that next line say?
Few analysts outside the McCain campaign appear to share this view.
Ah. Well. That's different, then.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

As I understand it, McCain’s polls use a larger sample size than the external polls, so they should be more accurate. Myself, I remain perpetually unimpressed by polls that claim to predict statewide or even national polls based on samples of 1000 people. So I’m inclined to accept that his polls are more accurate than the external polls, but that’s not saying much.

Also, the campaign seems to be assuming that anyone who will be voting for Obama has already decided to vote for him, and that therefore the remaining undecideds will break substantially for McCain when Election Day comes to shove. The accuracy of that assumption, of course, can be debated. (After all, maybe they’ll just decide to stay home and mutter "a plague on both your houses!")

I don’t think that Obama’s campaign is complacent. Their strategy seems to be aimed at bringing out an enormous turnout, and not just among the youth vote and the black vote (where, at least around here in South Florida, they are definitely succeeding. Those four hour waits you are hearing about are almost all at voting centers located in predominantly black areas.) I’ve lived at this address for almost twenty years, and this is the first time ever a presidential campaign sent a worker to our door to make sure we were registered and would vote. And it wasn’t McCain’s campaign.
Written By: kishnevi
All I can say is that the polls are all over the place.

So who knows? Nothing will suprise me at this point to be honest
Written By: shark
URL: http://
I’m still in denial. McCain will win, dammit! Someone tell me he’ll win!
Written By: Jason
URL: http://
I hope McCain will win, however I am more than a little worried about what the actual, physical landscape outside my front door will look like if Obama loses.

Did I mention I live in metro-L.A.?
Written By: Ronnie Gipper
I’ve read in a few places that dems themselves figure somewhere between 5 and 10 percent "Bradley Effect".
I think with virtually all the polls tightening they’re scared to death right now.
Residents of L.A. and all major cities have good reason to be anxious.
Written By: Greybeard
The only thing that will shock me is if we actually know who won on Nov. 5th.
Written By: MichaelW
The more I see McCain botch opportunities to win, the I don’t care if he does win.

Seriously, someone just found that Chicago Public Radio interview just now? BS.

Either McCain sat on it or he didn’t recognize the value of it. The remaining option is that McCain’s campaign team is completely incompetent at basic opposition research.
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
I’m tired of the Republican nominees. George HW Bush, Dole, W., and now McCain. Is there no life in the GOP? It’s the party of "The Lesser of Two Evils." Seriously, they should put that on their bumper stickers.

I hope we see a Jindal or a Pawlenty in four years. Or at least someone with an ounce of fight in them. I keep hearing about how McCain always comes back, but I just don’t see it coming this time. There is a difference between optimism and delusion, and I think we’re at the dividing line between the two.

In other words, I "hope" the poll numbers will "change." But I don’t count on it.
Written By: Ronnie Gipper
Seriously, someone just found that Chicago Public Radio interview just now?
I wonder about that too. Then there is this little gem "Sorry I’m Tardy" splicing together all of Obama’s apologies for showing up late to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. It’s not rocket science oppo research, but it would be darned effective with any voter who ever held a real job.
Written By: huxley
URL: http://
Well just to share the last email i got from my girlfriend, shes 20...and a obama supporter

lol, well, thanks for letting me know :o bleh, I’m not voting anyway since it’s too late to register x.x you should still vote 3rd party if you support anyone.
just sayin that youth vote isnt all is cracked up to be.
Written By: josh b
URL: http://
Polling this election is obviously very complex. Just look at the venerable Gallup organization hedging its bets with the two likely voter models, and how far apart they are.

I think that there is also a significant new demographic in this election: people who are afraid to give the wrong answer to pollsters. These are people who also don’t want to fail to give the right answer. The predicate for this is the intensity of partisan feeling at large in this election. These people know the age we live in, where having your telephone number is essentially having all of you. They don’t trust the claims of self-identifying pollsters. They’re essentially paranoid about speaking their mind. Possibly because they live in areas or work at jobs or belong to social networks where the right answer is crucial.

I’ll hypothesize this group as 4-5% of the electorate.
Written By: Martin McPhillips
"Is there no life in the GOP?"

Plenty of life, just no intelligent life.
Written By: timactual
URL: http://
Last time the Phillies won the world series was 1980.

On November 4th that year, a realigning election took place. Democrats were convinced that Reagan was too far right to get enough support to win, that he was all empty rhetoric, an actor speaking well rehearsed lines, not ready to be President. But he appealed to the public in a way that led to a 50-41 landslide, with well over 400 electoral votes. I voted for Reagan, it was my first election. And, in fact, I was in Detroit at the GOP convention that nominated him, on the floor during the celebration when he came out to accept the nomination. I can still see the podium proclaiming "Together a New Beginning." I was part of a ’youth for Reagan’ group that was housed in Ypsilanti and bused each day to Detroit for the convention.

Now the Phillies have won and there is again a November 4th election. This feels a lot like 1980, that we have another realigning election on the horizon. Attacks on Barack Obama slide off him like he was teflon. Remind you of anyone? If so, I’ll have the good fortune to be on the winning side of both the 1980 and the 2008 elections.
Written By: Scott Erb
winning side
Yeah, the difference this time will be how the ’winning side’ does business.
Fairness Doctrine, Social Engineering, Spreading the Wealth, a little Marxism for everybody.
You should certianly be proud to be on the ’winning side’ Scott, really really proud.

We’ll be making notes about how proud you should be, and if it works out as well as I expect we’ll be feeding you your crow on a regular basis.
I know you have all you can handle on your plate from your Iraq prognostications, but...hey, I figure you really like crow.
Written By: looker
URL: http://
Perhaps, colleges should redistribute their grant money.
Written By: Is
URL: http://
Democrats were convinced that Reagan was too far right to get enough support to win, that he was all empty rhetoric, an actor speaking well rehearsed lines, not ready to be President.
Reagan also had the benifit of real executive experience as governor of a major state. If that’s "not ready", what is?

As far as being "too far right", well sure that might have been the view from the left. But he was hardly "far right" by pre-FDR standards.

Obama lacks Reagan’s executive experience, and he represents a far left that is hostile to the Constitution and American values.
I voted for Reagan, it was my first election.
Same for me—I had just turned 18 in May. I voted for him again in ’84.
Written By: Don
URL: http://
Reagan also had the benifit of real executive experience as governor of a major state. If that’s "not ready", what is?
I keep waiting to hear what Obama has done.
Written By: capt joe
URL: http://
just sayin that youth vote isnt all is cracked up to be.

OTOH, you would think the death vote to be pretty unreliable, but it’s gotten the Dems past the finish line on multiple occasions.
Written By: ben
URL: http://

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