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Don’t get too wrapped up in "early voting" stats
Posted by: McQ on Friday, October 31, 2008

Dems in Florida are just tickled pink with the early voting turnout:
Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early.

"We're thrilled at the record turnout so far," said Democratic Party of Florida spokesman Eric Jotkoff. "It's a clear indication that Democrats want to elect Barack Obama and Democrats up and down the ballot so that we can start creating good jobs, rebuilding our economy and getting our nation back on track."
54 to 30. Wow. Eric may have a point.

Except that's not what some polls are showing:
A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.
Of course other polls are showing an Obama lead. All of them have wide margins of error.

And then there's this as well:
Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats' 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.
All of this to say it appears Florida remains very much a tossup despite these supposed authoritative polls.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

I got a call the other night from someone claiming to be from the AP.

He asked if I were registered to vote.

He asked if I was going to vote, for sure.

He asked me who I was going to vote for.

He asked me if I was going to do early voting.

He asked me that twice.

He asked my age, my name, and then asked which of the people running for Senate I was voting for.

I answered honestly and told him absolutely that I was going to vote on voting day (sure, I said Monday, but I was distracted!) but I said, no no no early voting. I was going to the polls on election day.

So someone, somewhere, is doing a poll to see how early voting is going to represent the final vote. And I have to say... the simple definition of conservatism would suggest that conservatives will be more likely to value tradition. I certainly do. Going *together* to vote seems like an important ritual to me. I don’t like early voting at all. (Even if I figure it should be available for people who *need* it.)
Written By: Synova
One thing to throw into the mix:
Turnout among blacks seems to be running very high. And furthermore, there’s a considerable proportion (according to the news report I saw in today’s Miami Herald) of young newly registered blacks—exactly the sort (because of youth and new registration) who aren’t weighed heavily in the traditional Likely Voter models.
We’ve also been visited by an Obama worker who offered to take my mother to the early voting site this afternoon (she’s an elderly Democratic voter, and obviously they think she’ll vote their way), a robocall urging us to go vote tomorrow (last day of early voting), on top of the two phone calls and one door to door canvasser who came by yesterday. That goes well beyond any get out any GOTV effort I’ve ever seen before.

I’m waiting to vote until Tuesday morning. When I’ll be casting my vote for Barr.
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