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Predictions
Posted by: McQ on Monday, November 03, 2008

Here are a few from the "This Week" crew:

Mark Halperin, Time Magazine:

Electoral Vote — 349 Obama
Senate — 58 Democratic seats
House — Democrats net 28 House seats

Matthew Dowd, former Republican strategist:

Electoral Vote — 338 plus Obama
Senate — 8 plus pick ups for Democrats
House — 17 plus pick ups for Democrats

George Will, ABC News contributor:

Electoral Vote — 378 Obama
Senate — 8 pick ups for the Democrats
House — 21 pick ups for the Democrats

Donna Brazile, former Democratic strategist:

Electoral Vote — Obama 343
Senate - Democrats 59 plus runoff
House - Democrats pick up 29

George Stephanopoulos:

Electoral Vote — 353 Obama
Senate — 58 Democrats
House — House Democrats pick up 28 seats

Interesting that George Will has the highest electoral count for Obama. Even Karl Rove has it going Obama's way. His map shows 311 for Obama, 16o McCain and 67 toss up.

The average House seat pick up is 25, and they all seem to think that at least 58 Democrats in the Senate is a pretty solid bet (with the possibility of more).

Your predictions?
 
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
My Prediction?

"We’re fuxxored." How’s that for a prediction? :)
 
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
My prediction?

We’re f***ed.
 
Written By: docjim505
URL: http://
I will quietly remind the assembled, that in the last polling before the 2004 election, Kerry was ahead by 5 points or so.

If you’ll recall, Bush won by 3.
 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
And I will quietly remind the peanut gallery that America has, in general, gotten far more stupid in the past 4 years.
 
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
My unimpeachable source tells me that McCain will get at least the 270 electoral votes he needs to win, and will wind up winning in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada.

The margin of victory in those states will come from an uprising of rural voters, voting-booth switchers, coal-country folks, the paranoid anti-Obama voters who lied to pollsters, and Catholics.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
I will quietly remind the assembled, that in the last polling before the 2004 election, Kerry was ahead by 5 points or so.

If you’ll recall, Bush won by 3.
I’ve seen that meme going around, but it’s not true. Bush was up in every poll except two (Marist and FoxNews) in the last few days before the election, and had an RCP Avg. lead of +1.5%.

 
Written By: MichaelW
URL: http://qando.net
The margin of victory in those states will come from an uprising of rural voters, voting-booth switchers, coal-country folks, the paranoid anti-Obama voters who lied to pollsters, and Catholics.
What, no Methodists? :)
 
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
What? You’re not playing McQ?

A few days ago I predicted an Obama win 51-48 with 311 EVs.
I wish to update my prediction to an Obama win 53-46 with 338 EVs.

It’d be interesting to see predictions from the QandO staff. Come on... Let’s have it.

Cheers.
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
I predict that while I’m in the voting booth, my 8 year old will throw up and my 4 year old will pee on the floor, in that order.

For those who want to take their minds off the election, I’ll take bets on alternative scenarios (e.g. the 2 year old throwing up and then the 8 year old peeing on the floor, or the 4 year old peeing and nobody throwing up).
 
Written By: Wacky Hermit
URL: http://organicbabyfarm.blogspot.com
I predict.....come Wed, some of us are happy, some of us are angry, and all of us happy this 2 year ordeal is finally over
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
(Greets from sunny Johannesburg.)

"Your predictions?"

The most perfect disaster yet in all the history of American electoral politics.

In any case, I think these morons are going to elect Obama.
 
Written By: Billy Beck
URL: http://www.two—four.net/weblog.php
McCain 290+ electoral votes
Popular vote at least 52%

Dems pick up 6 Senate Seats and about 15 House seats.

 
Written By: retired military
URL: http://
It’d be interesting to see predictions from the QandO staff. Come on... Let’s have it.
291-247 EV - Obama.

+7 Dem Senate

+20 Dem House
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.QandO.net
Every knee shall bow, every tongue confess, that Barack Obama is President.

And the Cubs will take the World Series in ’09.
 
Written By: Ronnie Gipper
URL: http://socalconservative.blogspot.com
And the Cubs will take the World Series in ’09.
If not by actually winning, than by Presidential Decree... :)

The ultimate redistribution...
 
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
The MSM will call every Obama state early while calling every McCain state late (citing exit and preelection polls ), they will call at least 2 states for Obama that will have to be reversed later in the night for McCain. They will have elated looks on their faces for Obama good news and report all Obama bad news with looks of disgust, disbelief, and sadness. They will Couch all Obama bad news as tentative, "to the best of our knowledge". "unreliable sources say", "pepublican partisian officials have stated", "very early reports have a slight indication of", etc.

Also law suits in at least 3 states McCain has won with less than 2% margins and the final results wont be known until after veterans day.
 
Written By: retired military
URL: http://
all of us happy this 2 year ordeal is finally over
That will last for about 48 hours, assuming that the election is decided by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

This election will never be over and will run right into the next one, regardless of who wins, or by how much or how little.

If Obama wins, the media line will be: "some holdouts on the right just won’t accept that Barack Obama will be President of the United States. Charges of racism are coming from many corners."

If McCain wins, the media line will be: "Many Democratic Party leaders believe that yet another election has been taken away from them by shady election day tactics and voter suppression and are claiming that key counties in [name the state] experienced serious irregularities that threw the election to McCain. They vow not to accept the results. Charges of racism are being heard from many corners."

In either case, the days of a new president having a "honeymoon" are long gone.

And the media has signed on for the Left’s permanent campaign.

This is a cold civil war, until it becomes hot, which could happen as early as a McCain victory on Tuesday night.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
McQ -
291-247 EV - Obama.
You mean 291-347 EV - Obama?
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
McCain: 260
Obama: 278

Dems +20 House, +6 Senate

The Obama EV Vote would be higher, but I’m just not sure about VA or PA.

My opinion may change based on the final polling numbers we get today.
 
Written By: Dale Franks
URL: http://www.qando.net
Did you check the CBS poll, Mike?

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
This election feels like 1980. I believe that the Obama get out the vote effort will turn this into a landslide greater than most expect. I predict 410 electoral votes vs. 128 (still short of Reagan’s 1980 shocker of 489), and the popular vote will likely go 53-44 (rest to Nader, Barr, etc.)

I explain my analysis and offer a state by state prediction/commentary at: http://scotterb.wordpress.com

Senate: Democrats pick up 7 or 8 (Franken’s the one on the fence; Chambliss will come in second Tuesday, but will win a runoff). Pickups: VA, NV, CO, NC, AK, NH and OR.

House: Based on thinking this will play out like 1980’s landslide did downticket, I’m looking at a Democratic pickup of 30 plus. However, that might be mitigated by the fact they had such a good year in 2006.

I don’t think Hillary would be in this good a position if she had been the nominee.
 
Written By: Scott Erb
URL: http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/blog.htm
It’d be interesting to see predictions from the QandO staff. Come on... Let’s have it.
I already made my POTUS prediction back in July, but here it is again:

Obama: 273
McCain: 265

Senate: +6 Dem
House: +21 Dem
 
Written By: MichaelW
URL: http://qando.net
Did you check the CBS poll, Mike?
Yeah. Did you?
A CBS News poll taken up to the eve of Election Day 2004 found the electorate as it has been for weeks and as it was four years ago — sharply divided.

The telephone survey of 1,600 adults, which was conducted from Friday to Monday, found President Bush with a 49-47 percent lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters including people leaning toward a candidate.

That lead was within the poll’s three-point margin of error.

Among all registered voters, it is only a one-point Bush edge - 48 percent to 47 percent.

Ralph Nader draws 1 percent and 3 percent of respondents said they were undecided.

A CBS News/New York Times poll released Sunday showed Mr. Bush with a 49-46 percent lead. Another CBS News survey, issued on Monday, had the president with a slim 47-46 percent advantage.
 
Written By: MichaelW
URL: http://qando.net
You mean 291-347 EV - Obama?
I’m not sure what country you live in Pogue, but in this one there are only 538 electoral votes. Of those, I’m predicting Obama will get 291. He needs 270 to win.
 
Written By: McQ
URL: http://www.QandO.net
You mean 291-347 EV - Obama?
Maybe in Unicornicopia where there are 57 states, but here in America there are only 50 with a total of 538 electoral votes.
 
Written By: MichaelW
URL: http://qando.net
I’m just going to predict a McCain win. I don’t know how the breakout will go.
 
Written By: meagain
URL: http://
P.S.:
The margin of victory in those states will come from [see my earlier comment]...and Catholics.
This is a watershed moment for Catholics in the United States. Obama has said that his first act as President of the United States will be to sign the Freedom of Choice Act, which would override all of the modest gains made by the Pro-Life movement over 30 years, including the prohibition on partial-birth abortions. Obama is an extremist on abortion. He is a champion of the leading corporation in the abortion industry, Planned Parenthood. Obama is deeply committed to the Culture of Death.

Catholics will have to renounce conscience to vote for him. It will be interesting to see how formidable a role the Holy Spirit plays in their decision in the voting booth.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
Wacky Hermit:
I predict that while I’m in the voting booth, my 8 year old will throw up and my 4 year old will pee on the floor, in that order.
I’m with the 8 year old. Not in a voting booth — I’ve already voted against all the Democrats on my absentee ballot — but sometime during the day or evening, especially if I accidentally turn to CBS.
 
Written By: Linda Morgan
URL: http://
I’m not sure what country you live in Pogue, but in this one there are only 538 electoral votes. Of those, I’m predicting Obama will get 291. He needs 270 to win.
My apologies. I thought you may have meant that as a range.
Thanks for the claryfication.
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
Bithead,

I should have been more explicit: no matter which one of the two idiots wins, we’re f***ed. McCain will just possibly be slightly less of a total disaster than The Annointed One as president.

We’re going to be saddled with democrat (spit) control of Congress no matter what happens.
 
Written By: docjim505
URL: http://
Depends on who you listen to.

At Midnight Nov 4th

Fox Mccain 250ish Obama 220ish

The rest of the media obama 340ish McCain 80ish

Final tallies a week from now.

McCain 290+
Obama 220+.

 
Written By: retired military
URL: http://
Final tallies a week from now.

McCain 290+
Obama 220+.
From your mouth to gods ears...
 
Written By: meagain
URL: http://
Oh and I forgot. Murtha will be defeated in Penn. (Thanks goodness).

 
Written By: retired military
URL: http://
Another reason to vote for McCain. for the freaking laser beams :)
 
Written By: capt joe
URL: http://
I predict it will be real close with recounts, lawsuits, and such, essentially Florida 2000 played out in several states, with a high liklyhood of riots.
 
Written By: Don
URL: http://
Yeah. Did you?
Of course!

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
I should have been more explicit: no matter which one of the two idiots wins, we’re f***ed
I’ve said it before... if we consider government a nessesary evil, and I suggest we should... then it comes downto who is the lesser evil.
Only rarely does someone come along who both gets elected and meets the description of ’not outright evil’

 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
Obama: 272 ev
McCain: 266 ev

Obama wins popular vote 49%-46%, with the rest being spread among the other candidates.
 
Written By: physics geek
URL: http://physicsgeek.mu.nu
Physics geek - It should get VERY interesting if your prediction comes true.
 
Written By: jjmurphy
URL: http://www.allthatisnecessary.com
I have been projecting a narrow win for the catastrophe for some time, but since Scott Erb has weighed in with a landslide for the catastrophe, I have to follow Heinlein’s "well-meaning fool" rule and change my prediction to a narrow win for the disaster.

 
Written By: Jeff Medcalf
URL: http://www.caerdroia.org/blog
If obama wins the popular vote, and the supreme court gives the election to mccain, like normally happens as of late, will there be a civil war?
 
Written By: ghostsniper
URL: http://
like normally happens as of late,
As in "Has only happened once, ever, and even then that isn’t actually what happened"? Is that what you mean?
 
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
I have been projecting a narrow win for the catastrophe for some time, but since Scott Erb has weighed in with a landslide for the catastrophe, I have to follow Heinlein’s "well-meaning fool" rule and change my prediction to a narrow win for the disaster.
I think that’s a good call, which is incidentally the same as my call.

Generally, I take polls seriously (well, not Newsweek’s, of course), but I’m going to correct this year for an "American fear of race" factor. By that I don’t mean fear of blacks, but fear of being thought of as or being called a racist. So, between the "none of your business how I vote" and those who give the "correct answer" to pollsters and those reactive voters who are mobilized out of an adverse reaction to the general fear of race in America and those who will hesitate once they are in the booth and say to themselves "No, I can’t do that," I’m going to add a 7-point correction in McCain’s favor to this year’s polls.

I don’t think that that correction would be necessary if the black candidate was running as a Republican, at least not that large a correction. But the Obama campaign has come running right out of the Hate Bush movement directly into the "you’re a racist if you criticize Obama," and the "you’re a racist if you don’t vote for Obama" tropes (and most recently Charles Ogletree’s "you’re still a racist even if you do vote for Obama").

Bottom line: If you get the full effect under this theory plus a lot of last minute movement on the information tidal wave exposing Obama as a piker, to put it mildly, this thing could easily go way the other way.

When I check the media, it’s all Obama. When I check my gut instincts, it doesn’t feel like the country has actually lost its collective mind.

"McCain will do this time," is how I read where this is heading for a lot of people. I can’t believe that a majority of the people in this country, despite the fact that it clearly is a Democratic year in so many respects, have lost contact with common sense. They’ve had to live with the idea of Obama as president for a while now. I don’t see them liking it too much.

We shall see.
 
Written By: Martin McPhillips
URL: http://newpaltzjournal.com
Martin McPhillips - When I check the media, it’s all Obama. When I check my gut instincts, it doesn’t feel like the country has actually lost its collective mind.

The country hasn’t lost it’s collective mind. If we consider the country like John Adams did during the War for Independence and say that 1/3 are conservative, 1/3 are liberal (spit), and the other 1/3 are undecided, then I’d say that AT MOST only 1/3 have lost their minds (libs can’t lose what they don’t have in the first place).

Unfortunately, that’s enough to put The Annointed One over the top and put the country behind the eight ball.

I hope, however, that you’re right, and that the polls are all totally wrong. Not that I have any great love for McCain, you understand, but at least he’s not an outright socialist like The Annointed One.
 
Written By: docjim505
URL: http://
"I predict that while I’m in the voting booth, my 8 year old will throw up"

What a coincidence; I, too, plan to throw up. I don’t think I’ll do the other, but that depends on how hard I am crying.


"and all of us happy this 2 year ordeal is finally over"

There is that. Cloud, silver lining, etc.


"(Greets from sunny Johannesburg.)"

Beating the rush? I think I would prefer New Zealand, myself.


"I have to follow Heinlein’s "well-meaning fool" rule"

’Well-meaning’???
 
Written By: timactual
URL: http://
364-174. If Obama gets less than 330, I’ll take a month-long vacation from Q&O as restitution for my Hubris.

58 Senate seats, plus a runoff in GA.

It takes real expertise to pick the house, but no less than 25.
 
Written By: glasnost
URL: http://
If Obama wins we play russian roulette with a .44 automag.

If McCain wins we play russian roulette with .38 revolver and 5 rounds in the 6 round chamber.

Either way it isnt really a good idea but one way is a bit safer and at most not as messy.
 
Written By: retired military
URL: http://

 
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