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Rassumssen final battleground state polls
Posted by: McQ on Monday, November 03, 2008

Apparently the undecideds are breaking slightly for McCain per Rasmussen:

Ohio
McCain 49%
Obama 49%

Florida
McCain 50%
Obama 49%

Colorado
McCain 47%
Obama 51%

Missouri
McCain 49%
Obama 49%

North Carolina
McCain 50%
Obama 49%

Virginia
McCain 47%
Obama 51%

The Rasmussen analysis:
A number of other themes emerge from the data that are worth noting:

— McCain gained ground among unaffiliated voters in five of the six states this week.

— In Colorado, the unaffiliated vote was little changed.

— Obama's level of support stayed even or ticked up a point this week in five of the six states. Florida was the sole exception.

— This is consistent with national numbers showing that whatever tightening of the race has taken place over the past week has come from undecided voters breaking slightly in McCain's direction. There is little or no evidence of a decline in support nationally for Obama.
Rasmussen presents one interesting scenario:
If McCain wins all six battleground states, Rasmussen Reports projections indicate that the Republican would have 255 Electoral College votes in his column. To reach 270 — the number needed for victory — McCain would also need to win some other states currently too close to call or leaning in the other direction. Any such scenario would have to include a McCain victory in Indiana or Pennsylvania.
So there it is. He has to run the table in these 6 and take either PA or IN. If he loses any of the 6, he's not necessarily dead, but it makes it much harder to achieve 270.

In my opinion, the bellweather state in the early returns will be North Carolina. If McCain takes NC, he survives to the next round of poll closings. But if he loses that state, I believe it will be an indication of things to come that night - and they won't be pretty for Republicans.
 
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Comments
Mr. Bush and the K Street Republicans have done all they can to alienate the American electorate; welcome to Election (judgement) Day.
 
Written By: a Duoist
URL: http://www.duoism.org
I’m calling it now. McCain wins 274-264.
 
Written By: Jason
URL: http://
I don’t think it’s a question of looking at current polls and figuring out various implausible scenarios that result in a McCain win.

If the polls are accurate, McCain has lost. Period. The small probability outcomes that are still consistent with polling in a statistical sense are not large enough to matter.

The question is, are the polls systematically wrong? Are they wrong by even 1% systematically? Are they perhaps wrong by 5% or more? If they are systematically wrong by enough, that not only has McCain not lost, then he stands to win by quite a bit.

It’s difficult for people to really wrap their heads around the idea that the polls may be systematically, fatally flawed. It’s conventional wisdom even on the right, even around here, that the polls are essentially correct, as reflected by this post.

But the evidence is such that it is not impossible. They have in fact been systematically, fatally flawed for the past year, always in Obama’s favor for the poll. IIRC there was at least one contest he polled 10% ahead of Hillary, and Hillary won by 5+%. Maybe pollsters have corrected. Personally, I think they have not corrected entirely. But it’s also possible they’ve overcorrected and Obama will do even better than polled. Who knows?

Anyways, the real question is: "Are the polls wrong?", not, "given that the polls are right how can McCain win?" And given what day this is, rather than debating, it’s best to just wait and see.
 
Written By: Jeremy Bowers
URL: http://www.jerf.org/iri
McCain isn’t taking CO

So that’s that

But we’ll see.....this will be extremely close across a bunch of states either way
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
I live in Colorado, and I think McCain will take it. A lot of Obama’s support comes from college campuses (DU, CSU, CU), and we all know how dangerous it is to rely on the youth to turn out.

On the other hand, Colorado is home to a lot of Mormons and military institutions. We have the Air Force Academy, Buckley Air Force Base, etc.
 
Written By: Jason
URL: http://
To be horribly frank about it, apparently Obama’s Grandmother passed last night and wonder how this will factor in with sympathy overriding last second pragmatism when the levers are pulled.
 
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
If the polls are off by 5-6%, then McCain takes all the toss-up states plus Colorado: that’s a 269-269 tie. Wouldn’t that be interesting.
 
Written By: Skorj
URL: http://
If the polls are off by 5-6%, then McCain takes all the toss-up states plus Colorado: that’s a 269-269 tie. Wouldn’t that be interesting.
If that happens, CA and IL give all of their EC votes to the winner of the popular vote. So if somehow McCain wins the popular, and there is an EC tie, McCain wins.

Of course, CA and IL can’t help Obama in that situation . . .
 
Written By: Don
URL: http://
Also, in the event of riots, keep in mind any looter could be mkultra, so be kind . . .
 
Written By: Don
URL: http://
Also, in the event of riots, keep in mind any looter could be mkultra, so be kind . . .
You mean ’aim well’?
 
Written By: meagain
URL: http://
Also, in the event of riots, keep in mind any looter could be mkultra, so be kind . .
I would not let mk get so close. You might get rabies
 
Written By: capt joe
URL: http://
To be horribly frank about it, apparently Obama’s Grandmother passed last night and wonder how this will factor in with sympathy overriding last second pragmatism when the levers are pulled.
He’s thrown her under the bus once already i can’t think of any reason to believe he wouldn’t have arranged for her untimely demise in order to capitalize on picking up a few sympathy votes.
 
Written By: mac
URL: http://
Outlier polls, contradicted heavily by at least five other sets.
 
Written By: glasnost
URL: http://
If California swings for McCain, I’m moving back to Arkansas. Hopefully ahead of the wide-scale riots and execution-style killings of white Republicans in the streets.

I’m only half joking about this.

(Maybe I’ll hole up at the Reagan Library. Hmmm...)
 
Written By: Ronnie Gipper
URL: http://socalconservative.blogspot.com
I give McCain credit for finishing with strength and energy. However, I do wonder about the strategy of his campaign since he won the nomination. It seemed very hit and miss, and sadly more of the latter. Much of the best material fell into his lap, e.g. Joe the Plumber, rather than being developed by the campaign.

But then there were all those punchy, powerful items that appeared just this past week or so: the video compilation of Obama apologies for showing up late to Senate Foreign Relations Committee meetings, the video of his flip-flops, the illegal presence and illegal campaign donations of his aunt in Boston, the Weather Underground copy of Prarie Fire, the Obama audio on bankrupting new coal plants, ACORN voting fraud, and, most powerful of all IMO, the scrutiny of the Obama campaign’s intentionally insecure system of accepting credit card donations.

It wouldn’t surprise me a jot if upwards of $200 million of Obama’s donations were illegal—either over the limit for American citizens or just flat-out illegal donations from foreign sources.

All of these items were available, with some digging, to the McCain oppo team for months now. If they had been more on their toes, maybe they even could have gotten the mystery Rashid Khalidi video that the LA Times has now under wraps.
 
Written By: huxley
URL: http://

 
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