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Key Senate Races
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, November 04, 2008

I've been playing around over at Pollster.com looking at the various trend lines and polls in some Senate races I'm interested in. My predictions:

Georgia - Chambliss (R) will win. Whether he avoids a runoff or wins outright depends on the number of votes the Libertarian candidate gets. If he has a runoff, he'll most likely win comfortably in the absence of the turnout for Obama in a primary election.

North Carolina - Dole (R) will squeak out a win. She doesn't deserve it, but I think she'll manage a very close victory. This is one, however, in which I could be wrong.

Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R) will survive the race and prevail and again take up the minority leader's job, but with much diminished power.

Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (D) easily defeats challenger Kennedy and holds on to the seat for the Dems.

Alaska - Begich (D) easily defeats convicted felon Ted Stevens and takes the seat for the Dems.

Minnesota - Coleman's (R) lead seems to be increasing as Franken again manages to be his own worst enemy.

In other Senate races that aren't as close:

Virginia
Mark Warner (D) Vs. James Gilmore (R)- Warner wins.

New Mexico
Tom Udall (D) vs. Steve Pearce (R)- Udall wins.

Colorado
Bob Schaffer (R) vs. Mark Udall (D)- The other Udall wins.

New Hampshire
John Sununu (R-NH) vs. Jeanne Shaheen (D)- Shaheen beats incumbent Sununu

Oregon
Gordon Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D)- Merkley defeats incumbent Smith

That's a +6 for the Dems assuming Coleman wins, Dole hangs on and Chambliss wins (outright or in a runoff). The potential if all of those go the other way, of course, is +9. The probability the Reps will win all three may be a bridge too far, so my final prediction is Dems +7.

And in the one House race in which I have any interest, Bill Russell holds a less than a percentage point lead over John Murtha. Here's hoping the good people of PA-12 redeploy Murtha once and for all so we won't have to ever hear that "fat little bastard ... run his mouth" ever again.
 
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