Posted by: Dale Franks on Tuesday, November 04, 2008 Tomorrow, this post by Sean Malstrom from yesterday will be celebrated as the most prescient post in the blogoshpere, or he will become the biggest goat of the day. In a long and closely-reasoned post, he concludes: Consider Obama toast, guys. He will join Dukakis, Dole, Gore, and Kerry in the ashbin of history.While I'd like to believe his reasoning—and there's an awful lot of it—I can't commit to it. To believe he's right, you have to believe that every single poll taken over the last month is wrong, that a huge and undetectable break to McCain happened over the last 36 hours, and that the entire political analyst profession has been systematically mislead—or misleading, as the case may be. And you have to believe all that without an excessively large body of evidence to support it. In my gut, I think he could very well be right. The action on the stock market today leads me to think that traders' guts are saying so, too. But without the evidence to support it, my head forbids me from committing to the proposition he puts forth, no matter what my gut feeling might be. Because, at the end of the day, it seems awfully like whistling past the graveyard. But, I can hope... |
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