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The Morning After
Posted by: McQ on Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Well it's done.

Now to sort out some final thoughts.

- The polls were right. I mean dead right. I frankly didn't expect them to be as close as they were. It certainly gives me a reason to trust them a little more given this performance.

- While the election is certainly a decisive victory for Barack Obama, it is still unclear whether Dems will meet their expectations in the House and Senate. Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by less than 700 votes (mandatory recount will be made), Smith holds a slim lead in Oregon and Stevens apparently rallied and the race in Alaska and took the lead althoug it is still too close to call.

-Prop 8 in CA seems to have passed. Some interesting stats:
In California, first-time voters cast their ballots against the proposition by a 64 percent to 36 percent margin, according to exit polls. The rest of the electorate favored the amendment 52 percent to 48 percent.
FL and AZ passed similar propositions. I understand the desire to define marriage in a traditional sense. However, in terms of civil rights, I'm not at all threatened by same sex partners enjoying the same civil rights as a traditionally married couple. Call it whatever you like (civil union works for me) but there should be the same rights for all.

-One thing that won't happen. The Congress isn't going to address anything in its lame duck session. Democrats will be busy putting together their legislative agenda for '09. And my guess is it will be a very aggressive one. Obama's first test, if all this talk about him being someone who will govern moderately is true, will be to stand up to his party and their more aggressive attempts to pass legislation which will increase spending and the size of government. We can't afford either - in more ways than one. But at this point in time, I've never seen anything in Obama's past which says he will actually do that. That is the first thing I'll be watching.

-On the foreign policy front, I'm still wondering if Israel will feel a necessity to act against Iran's nuclear capacity. Although Almadinejad seems to be is some political trouble there, there's no guarantee that whoever replaces him will be more moderate.

-The idiots in the county in which I live voted for a 1% increase in sales tax to fund some government boondoggle that will never go away. I live on the county line and will do my shopping in the next county with a lower sales tax. That's the way things like this work.

-TGIO. Thank Goodness It's Over. No more commercials, no more "debates", no more "analysis". After 2 freakin' years of campaigning, some return to normalcy. And if some politician announces his or her candidacy within the next 3 years, I won't support them just because they did.

-The "post-racial" era has begun. Let's see how it proceeds. But the "we can't get there from here because of racism" meme is dead and I'm going to be very intolerant of any attempts to resurrect it.
 
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I hope that with the lower turnout of a recount election the Toad Frankin is not elected to make a mockery of the Senate.

Other wise, the Dems have everything they need right now to enact their most radical agendas. The five or six republican squishes in the Senate can be bought off, so no filibusters, and certainly they will not be held to account by the media!

Nope it’s pure leftism now, and it’s going to be entertaining to watch at least.
 
Written By: kyleN
URL: http://impudent.blognation.us/blog
Switching to "turnabout is fair play mode"......

It’s obscene in this economy and in time of war that Obama is already planning a hugely expensive and extravagent inaguration. Out of respect for the nations suffering he should cancel and keep it low key!

—-

Oh yeah, lots of rich material to work with here.

There’s not a whole lot to do really except put your boots up and watch the impending train wreck develop.

 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
The Post racial era?
I don’t think so.

Consider, now; If as we’re told, race doesn’t matter, why on earth would anyone consider it at all unusual that Obama won?

See, if you want to celebrate an individual’s achievement, which it certainly is, then do so. But if race doesn’t matter, and we’re really in a post racial society, don’t be telling me how this was a group success. Don’t be telling me about how you’re celebrating because someone of a particular racial makeup ’made it’ being a great thing... because if that aspect is so central to you, it’s not such a great thing; You’ve clearly still not gotten over the color of their skin.

There are those who will suggest the end of racism is heralded with these events. I disagree. I suggest rather, that if this is to be taken as a win for a particular racial group, that Obama won not in spite of racism, but because of it. The percentage of blacks voting for Obama would seem to confirm this.
 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
The polls were right. I mean dead right.
Sometimes the oddsmakers nail it. In fact, they more than often nail it. It’s their job, they’re good at it.
It kind of reminds me whenever I rescue a terrified suburban family from a swarm of bees. I show up and I’m done in fifteen minutes. They are amazed at the speed of which I did the work. I simply say, "Hey... It’s what I do."
Okay, so maybe it’s not like that. But I’m sure they get the same satisfaction.

MichaelW’s post Poll Dancing...
The polls are wrong this year, very wrong. I have been saying this for months, and I have backed up my claim with both statistical and anecdotal support. ... Well, I am not a big believer in conspiracies, but I do think that the polling groups have fallen into a groupthink condition.
DJ Drummond lays out a fairly comprehensive theory as to why polling this year is particularly unreliable, and it’s not based on accusations of media bias as one might expect. Instead, he presents a logical case for why polling has become skewed, and raises some interesting issues that should cause one to question the accuracy of polling results. One point in particular that I found interesting is that, from a business standpoint, polling may often be used not to convey an accurate picture of the electorate’s views, but instead to drive the current narrative being sold by the media.
...should have made him dizzy.
Drummond is proven to be quite the idiot. His "groupthink" conditions were idiotic and laughable from the start. Because the end destination of these polling firms products is not the media.
If I buy a defective product from my wholesaler, then I pass that defective product along to my customers, they then stop buying my products, then I stop buying products from my wholesaler. It’s just that simple really. The polling firms must provide the best products to their consumers or they will fail.
This should have been the business standpoint that MichaelW found interesting.

There was never any rational reason to disbelieve the polling data.

Cheers.








 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
Shark, I wonder if someone could actually use old news stories, etc., and create a Mirror Term for Obama...anything said about Bush turned 180 against Obama. It would be "this day in history" vs. "today in history." Not the legit complaints but the stupid stuff like the cost of inauguration, etc. It would make an interesting blog. Wish I had the time.

One important thing about the Post-Racial stuff...I think it really is post-racial now...WHERE WAS THE BRADLEY EFFECT? OH, IT DIDN’T EXIST.

This proves that racism has declined from being open, to being hidden but there, to being....what now?



 
Written By: Harun
URL: http://
As far as I am concerned, this election spent the racism excuse. Let’s here no more of it.
 
Written By: Jeremy Bowers
URL: http://www.jerf.org/iri
Obama lied, people died!

;)


 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
Well, crud. Hear no more of it.
 
Written By: Jeremy Bowers
URL: http://www.jerf.org/iri
"Game over, man!"—the ghost of Thomas Jefferson, as played by Bill Paxton.

"Ha-hah! We warned you!"—the ghosts of Albert Jay Nock and H. L. Mencken, played by Nelson Muntz.

(The rumbling in the background is the sound of John Locke and Thomas Paine turning in their graves.)

In such times, I turn to one of my favorite, Jim Powell’s TRIUMPH OF LIBERTY, a collection of mini-biographies of great champions of freedom. It’s a book that if it goes through 100 reprintings and revisions from now to the next millenium, will probably never have a chapter on Barack Obama. But in light of the country’s apparent embrace of the Cult of the State, don’t you think the title is, in retrospect, too . . . well, triumphalist?
 
Written By: Bilwick
URL: http://
Oh there were some ridiculous reasons for some to disbelieve the polling data.
My personal favorite came from none other that Martin McPhillips.

You’ll remember, he stated that people were fearful of what these polling firms might do to them over the interwebs so that’s why people were compelled to give the "right answer".
I can’t wait to learn of Martin’s explanations as to why the results mirrored the polling data. Perhaps he will suggest that these pollsters were sending mind-controlling signals through the telephone. And McPhillips was just lucky he happened to be wearing his tin foil hat lest he himself vote for Obama.
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
But the "we can’t get there from here because of racism" meme is dead and I’m going to be very intolerant of any attempts to resurrect it.
You don’t REALLY think it’s going away, do you? After all, it’s worked out so well for those who have been using it as an excuse for all manner of unsavory things for all these years. Instead, get ready for: "All this proves is that there is much work yet to be done!" After all, there are still a handful of conservatives left in this country, and until they’re properly disposed of, it seems to me that spurious, guileful accusations of "racism" will continue to be an essential part of our politics.
 
Written By: Mike
URL: http://coldfury.com
It’s obscene in this economy and in time of war that Obama is already planning a hugely expensive and extravagant inauguration. Out of respect for the nations suffering he should cancel and keep it low key!
Thanks, I am going to use that one, keep em coming.
 
Written By: kyleN
URL: http://impudent.blognation.us/blog
There was never any rational reason to disbelieve the polling data.
Actually, there was.... two good reasons.
Both the Democrats and Repulicans internal polling showed up far better for Mccain than did the outcome, or, what we’ll call the ’commercial pollsters’.

Of course the reason for the delta is the party internals tend to stick to legal voters. Note that on a per state/per vote basis, Obama did best in those states with greater controversy surrounding illegal votes... Ohio, PA, etc.



 
Written By: Bithead
URL: http://bitsblog.florack.us
Hey....when does that "McCain will win PA and the election" guy post his mea culpa? That should be amusing reading
 
Written By: shark
URL: http://
Hey....when does that "McCain will win PA and the election" guy post his mea culpa? That should be amusing reading


If he follows Drummond’s lead, he won’t.
Shorter D.J. -
The polls were wrong, the internals were wrong, the models were wrong, everything and everybody was wrong... well, except me of course... I’m still right. So p!ss off.
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
I voted for the ban on gay marriage here in Arizona. And it passed. Why? Because the gay lobby and their minions have decided that no matter how indignant people become at them, they want to push their baloney right in people’s faces. They want to be gay? Be gay. But do it in the privacy of your bedroom. If every person wanted civil rights for their particular sexual situation, we would be bogged down to no end. Keep it to yourself - that is my motto.

As for Obama, I cannot wait until there is an international incident and he stands there like a dead duck, unable to do much of anything. The question I have is how long it will take the American people, and the world, to conclude that a naive, inexperienced man was just put in charge of the candy store. It is almost as if Pee Wee Herman was now running the nuclear weapons room, except that I would have more confidence in Pee Wee Herman.

 
Written By: James Marsden
URL: http://
Because the gay lobby and their minions have decided that no matter how indignant people become at them, they want to push their baloney right in people’s faces.
The gays have been pushing their baloney in your face? Dude, that’s just gross. I suggest you hang out at a different bar.
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
Pogue:
Drummond is proven to be quite the idiot. His "groupthink" conditions were idiotic and laughable from the start. Because the end destination of these polling firms products is not the media.

If I buy a defective product from my wholesaler, then I pass that defective product along to my customers, they then stop buying my products, then I stop buying products from my wholesaler. It’s just that simple really. The polling firms must provide the best products to their consumers or they will fail.
This should have been the business standpoint that MichaelW found interesting.
Because you are possibly one of the most incompetent readers when it comes to comprehension, it should not surprise me that you entirely missed what I was saying. And because you have the graciousness of crippled donkey, it also comes as no surprise that you choose to gloat rather than analyze.

First: The DJ Drummond quote that you have repeated followed with my "what I find interested" passage has everything completely backwards. The introduction to the Drummond quote was this:
People are raising lots of questions about the accuracy of current polling in the Presidential race. Some are almost certainly doing so out of a sense of desperation, hoping against hope that McCain isn’t as far behind as it seems. But then, some have legitimate concerns about the state of the polling process, and whether or not the numbers we hear every day have enough integrity to properly handicap the horserace.
What should be obvious to anyone with at least 3rd Grade reading skills is that I was taking the poll-watching with a grain of salt, and trying to acknowledge some legitimate concerns. The "groupthink" notion is interesting to consider, but played no part in my analysis of the Drummond piece. For you to suggest otherwise is fundamentally dishonest.

Second: The "interesting point" that I was discussing had nothing to do with the "groupthink" accusation either, despite your (again) rather dishonest attempts to suggest otherwise. Instead, I immediately quoted what I found to be an interesting point so that even the most idiotic, but still literate, folks could follow what I was saying. Clearly I failed there as you seem to have been lost from the get-go. Here’s the interesting point along with my commentary:
That’s where that whole "bounce" thing after the conventions comes from - do you really think republicans or independents got more excited about Obama because of his convention, or that democrats and independents were more likely to vote for McCain because of the GOP convention? When you think about it, it should be obvious that these bumps are artificial unless there is a clear cause to show a change in support. And when you take apart the polls and drill down to the raw data, what you find is a close race with a gradually declining but still large pool of undecided voters, which is consistent with the known facts and actions we see from both campaigns.
I’ve often wondered why there would be a "bounce" after a convention. Especially one that doesn’t seem to last for more than a week. Could it be a self-fulfilling prophecy in that pollsters are simply finding what they expect to be there? I can’t say for sure, but it does raise some interesting questions.
If you were actually interested in intelligent discussion, then you would have acknowledged these points and framed the argument accurately.
There was never any rational reason to disbelieve the polling data.
Except for the fact that the campaigns were behaving differently than the national media polls, the large volatility in the polls, and the fact that some of the polls just didn’t make any sense whatsoever (Obama with a +10% lead in VA?). Other than those rational reasons, yeah, there wasn’t much. [/eyeroll]

 
Written By: MichaelW
URL: http://qando.net
Hey....when does that "McCain will win PA and the election" guy post his mea culpa? That should be amusing reading
That was a really good piece of fan fiction!
 
Written By: Ronnie Gipper
URL: http://www.socalconservative.blogspot.com
And because you have the graciousness of crippled donkey, it also comes as no surprise that you choose to gloat rather than analyze.
My analysis was dead on. That the polls were accurate. That there was no “group think” or business model to “feed the narrative”. There’s just no there there.
The simple answer is often the correct one. Perhaps rather than “feeding a narrative”, there really is a bounce after a convention. That there are a handful of swing/undecided voters who are swayed by a carefully crafted fanfare which is executed by design to sway voters.

But no, no… what you find “interesting” is Drummond’s tin foil hat “group think business models to feed the narrative.” [/eyeroll]
Even more interesting, however, is the last sentence in the quoted paragraph above. If the polling is accurate, then why are the campaigns behaving contrary to what those polls are telling the rest of us? Every news junkie knows that campaigns do their own internal polling, and that these are generally considered the most accurate. How different are they from what the media is reporting? One concrete example suggests "very"
Despite a double-digit deficit in polls, Sen. John McCain is throwing almost everything he can into Pennsylvania, seeking to flip soft supporters of his Democratic rival — many of whom favored Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primary, with some boldly acknowledging that race was a factor.
Or, what’s more likely, is that there was no contrary behavior. That the McCain campaigns internal polling suggested nothing different than the public polling, but that’s all he had left. The long ball. The hail mary.

But no, no… what you find “interesting” are these “concrete examples” that the actual numbers in Pennsylvania are different than what the public polling suggests. Your concrete turns quickly to dust when the polling numbers suggested a double digit lead by Obama and then >shocker<… Obama wins by double digits.
Hat tip “hot air”, indeed. [/eyeroll]


There is no more need for analysis. Water is wet. The polls were on average correct.
And yes I choose to gloat and to mock, because what other use are fools good for?
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
Pogue, sometimes you are just too stupid for words. I carefully explain how my analysis had nothing to do with "groupthink" and you go right back to it. Frankly, that makes you not worth arguing with since you can’t seem to read or honestly characterize your opponent’s argument, much less to make anything resembling an argument. You don’t analyze, you lamely ridicule without the foggiest notion of what it is you or the other person is saying.

I guess you just don’t have the capability of discussing issues intelligently. Sad really.
 
Written By: MichaelW
URL: http://qando.net
The gays have been pushing their baloney in your face? Dude, that’s just gross. I suggest you hang out at a different bar.
Hahahh, we may be on opposite ends of the political spectrum, but that totally made me lmao :)

The polls were kind of all over the place though.

Good luck to President Obama, he’s gonna need it
 
Written By: Gregoir
URL: http://
I guess you just don’t have the capability of discussing issues intelligently.
Uhh... I was right about the polling. End of discussion.
Pogue, sometimes you are just too stupid for words.
This coming from the guy who suggested that a "concrete example" of how different the polling numbers are is McCain being in Pennsylvania.

"Concrete" LOL!

Tell me, does it hurt to be so wrong? I mean, when you look back on your idiotic words, helped by idiots like Drummond and HotAir, do you think to yourself, "Wow, how stupid was I?"
Or do you simply ignore it and pretend it never happened? Like Drummond, do you convince yourself that despite that the actual outcome practically mirrored polling trends and averages, that somehow you were right and EVERYONE else is wrong?
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
I’ve been making the rounds of center-right blogs and I have yet to see a single post from the contrary voices — Obama supporters or McCain detractors or however they style themselves — that weren’t gloats or sneers or score-settling.
 
Written By: huxley
URL: http://
Uhh... I was right about the polling. End of discussion.
You weren’t "right" about anything because you never made any actual argument. All you did was pick a side and snipe from it. BFD.
This coming from the guy who suggested that a "concrete example" of how different the polling numbers are is McCain being in Pennsylvania.

"Concrete" LOL!

Tell me, does it hurt to be so wrong? I mean, when you look back on your idiotic words, helped by idiots like Drummond and HotAir, do you think to yourself, "Wow, how stupid was I?"
What hurts is how unacquainted with the english language you seem to be. "Concrete" means
1. Of or relating to an actual, specific thing or instance; particular: had the concrete evidence needed to convict.
In this "specific instance" McCain and Obama were behaving as if the race was much closer in PA than the volatile polls were suggesting.

So how does it make me wrong to point to this as evidence that may support the theory that the polls were off?

Don’t bother. I already now you’re answer: "Groupthink!!!1!"
 
Written By: MichaelW
URL: http://qando.net
"The "post-racial" era has begun. Let’s see how it proceeds. But the "we can’t get there from here because of racism" meme is dead and I’m going to be very intolerant of any attempts to resurrect it."
The effects of institutional racism linger, and I believe it is in our national interests to undo these effects.

That said, this goal coincides with an overall desire to see all Americans who find themselves at the bottom of the economic ladder have every reasonable opportunity to improve themselves.

The bottom line is that for people who are willing to put in the effort, I think an investment in these people will pay dividends for our nation, and whether their current circumstances are caused by institutional racism, or abusive parents, or whatever, if they are willing to earn an investment, I don’t want to care why.

So yes to post-racial, but also yes to investing a hand-up to those willing to put in the effort.
The gays have been pushing their baloney in your face? Dude, that’s just gross. I suggest you hang out at a different bar.



You owe me a new keyboard!
 
Written By: CaptinSarcastic
URL: http://
-The "post-racial" era has begun. Let’s see how it proceeds. But the "we can’t get there from here because of racism" meme is dead and I’m going to be very intolerant of any attempts to resurrect it.
Apparently being Black is less of an obstacle to becoming President than being a Mormon. So it time to re-rank the oppressed minorities in this country.
 
Written By: jpm100
URL: http://
You weren’t "right" about anything because you never made any actual argument. All you did was pick a side and snipe from it. BFD.
Oh man, that’s some powerful stupid.

I didn’t "pick a side and snipe for it" you twit. I said there was no reason to disbelieve the polling. And I was right. There is no "side" to this. There are just idiots like Drummond and those who think they’re "interesting", and people like me who don’t see phantom evidence that the pollsters are all in on it for whatever reason.

Drummond’s whole argument was about "group think". Including this "business" you find so interesting about bounces after conventions and such. All the polls show a bounce, not just a few. So Drummond’s idiocy continued, the pollsters were all apart of a nefarious geography, or some kind of grand incompetence or fraud.
Drummond had no evidence. He just didn’t like what the polling reported, so he dreamed up some fantasy about having to feed the liberal media, or apart of some grand incompetent group think, and dragons and demons and New Coke. And you bought it, whether you realize it or not.

Drummond’s piece was thick steaming pile from start to finish. From "New Coke" to Gallup to group think to liberal geography... The whole thing was pure idiocy. The polls were right, just like most intelligent people thought they would be. Drummond was wrong, he still can’t admit it.
And neither can you.

Sad, really.
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
Pogue:

"Nuh’uh" plus derision does not equal an argument.

And repeating someone else’s digs without adding anything ironic or at least funny is in really bad form. Seriously, man. You need to work a little harder than that.

Y’know, "pedro the illegal alien" seems to get the funny part. Maybe he’s just willing to do the work the American trolls won’t do.
 
Written By: MichaelW
URL: http://qando.net
I voted for the ban on gay marriage here in Arizona. And it passed. Why? Because the gay lobby and their minions have decided that no matter how indignant people become at them, they want to push their baloney right in people’s faces. They want to be gay? Be gay. But do it in the privacy of your bedroom. If every person wanted civil rights for their particular sexual situation, we would be bogged down to no end. Keep it to yourself - that is my motto.
Ah, but see? This is easy to avoid. It’s very simple. Do nothing. Ignore it. Tolerance is easy. Oppression takes work. Baloney was only shoved in your face because you sought it out and stared it down.
 
Written By: Joe R.
URL: http://leninvsmussolini.blogspot.com
Okay, Michael... you win. You and Drummond were right, the polling was dead wrong. And John McCain was elected president.

Nefarious geography, grand incompetence or fraud, convention bounce lying pollsters... all of that stuff is true. And despite all of this against them, the pollsters once again got lucky in an election year.

One of these days, the pollsters luck will run out and you and Drummond will have exposed them for the frauds that they are.

Good luck with that.
 
Written By: PogueMahone
URL: http://
Mutt Mahone:
I can’t wait to learn of Martin’s explanations as to why the results mirrored the polling data.
How about: the polls were accurate.

I disbelieved their accuracy and offered a theory as to why that might be.

Too difficult for Mutt to understand?
 
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