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About the increase in hurricanes
Posted by: McQ on Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Seems we've managed instead to find ourselves in a 30 year low:
The past two years have seen a "remarkable" downturn in hurricane activity, contradicting predictions of more storms, researchers at Florida State University say.

The 2007 and 2008 hurricane seasons had the least tropical activity in the Northern Hemisphere in 30 years, according to Ryan Maue, co-author of a report on Global Tropical Cyclone Activity.

"Even though North Atlantic hurricane activity was expectedly above normal, the Western and Eastern Pacific basins have produced considerably fewer than normal typhoons and hurricanes," he said.

Maue's results dovetail with other research suggesting hurricanes are variable and unconnected to global warming predictions, said Stan Goldenberg, a hurricane researcher with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"The simplistic notion that warmer oceans from global warming automatically lead to more frequent and or stronger hurricanes has not been verified," said Goldenberg, whose research points to periods of high and low hurricane activity that last several decades each.
Cycles:
Maue used a measurement called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which combines a storm's duration and its wind speed in six-hour intervals. The years 2007 and 2008 had among the lowest ACE measurements since reliable global satellite data was first available three decades ago.

Northern Hemisphere activity in 2006 was close to average, and the previous two years, 2004 and 2005, which included Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, saw among the highest numbers on record.

Active seasons in one ocean tend to be accompanied by quiet ones in the other, Maue said. When the Pacific is cooler, as it is now, the Atlantic has slower winds aloft, which creates more favorable conditions for hurricanes.

"It tells you that from year to year you have large swings of activity," said Maue, who plans to present his work next month at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. "If you want to find a global warming signal in all that data it's generally going to be rather small."
That has to be disappointing to the alarmists out there, not that they plan on paying any attention to the science involved:
Kevin Trenberth, a lead author of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, was among several climatologists who made such claims. He said in 2004 that the intense hurricane season that year was "a harbinger of the future." His prediction prompted the resignation from the panel of Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at NOAA's National Hurricane Center, who said there was no basis to make such a prediction.

Trenberth said in response to the latest study that hurricanes can be measured in different ways and by some measures activity is high. "What we expect on a theoretical basis is for duration to increase as well as size … but there could be fewer storms," Trenberth said.
"Theoretical" being the key word. However, reality, it appears, has no plans on supporting his "theoretical" no matter how he chooses to measure things.
 
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That has to be disappointing to the alarmists out there, not that they plan on paying any attention to the science involved:
Like science matters to these guys.

It’s all about consensus science, which by the way is not how science works. Science works on proving hypothesis, not achieving consensus. Consensus is for unprovable semi sciences like socialology, psychology, political "science" where people get together to agree on what is right because their belief systems are pretty much not provable.

Richard Feynman called reliance on computer models a disease. He is still right.
 
Written By: capt joe
URL: http://
"Trenberth said in response to the latest study that hurricanes can be measured in different ways and by some measures activity is high."
For instance, prediction backpedaling and spinning is at an all time high.

 
Written By: Grimshaw
URL: http://
In theory, theory and reality are the same. In reality, they are not.
 
Written By: TheOldMan
URL: http://
Don’t you see it? The number of hurricanes has dropped, therefore we are experiencing global climate change!!!!!
 
Written By: Steverino
URL: http://
It’s a hell of a racket, you got to hand it to them. If it gets hot, it’s global warming, if it gets cold it’s global climate change. If there is bad weather, that is proof, if there is calm weather that is proof. And if you object, you are outside of the "consensus" and are declared anathema.
 
Written By: kyleN
URL: http://impudent.blognation.us/blog
Maue used a measurement called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which combines a storm’s duration and its wind speed in six-hour intervals. The years 2007 and 2008 had among the lowest ACE measurements since reliable global satellite data was first available three decades ago.
Basically this proves that the entire basis for the claim we were seeing anything different concerning hurricane incidence or intensity (Yeah, Emanuel I’m looking at you), turns out to be half-assed BS. (Not that that comes as a surprise.)
 
Written By: Rich Horton
URL: http://www.iconicmidwest.blogspot.com
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Written By: wpwtfx
URL: http://dvwyoxjzhryc.com/

 
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