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Not a very nice prediction for the upcoming Obama administration
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, December 30, 2008

This is not exactly the "change" most Americans are hoping for, that's for sure.

I would guess, by now, you've heard of the predictions a Russian Professor has made saying the United States will cease to exist as united states in the year 2010. Professor Panarin is a former KGB analyst and he claims to have gotten his forecast info from the FAPSI, the equivalent of our NSA. The nut (no pun intended) of his prediction is:
He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
So according to Professor Panarin, Tina Fey may end up being right after all and Sarah Palin will eventually have no problem seeing Russia from her front porch.

This isn't a new prediction by this character, he's been pushing it for years. It is just now that the financial crisis has hit, and the economy is headed south, it's gone from being extreme crack-pottery to mild crack-pottery and apparently worthy of broad publication.

While what he predicts is certainly possible in a world of infinite possibilities, it isn't particularly probable. Probably the biggest reason it isn't probable is that unlike many countries in the world, there is a national identity here. Whereas back during our civil war, state identity probably trumped national identity, that's no longer the case. Most citizens proudly identify themselves as Americans first. Mobility, communication, immigration (people come to America, not Virginia) and broader sense of belonging to the whole has made citizens here identify with the nation.

There are many out there that believe both secession and civil war are possible (what a way to have Obama be the next "Lincoln" no?), but I'd say they're highly unlikely. We didn't split apart in the last financial downturn of even greater magnitude and there's no reason to believe it will happen this time. Social and ethnic problems, while certainly still alive and contentious, aren't at a level which would drive either secession or civil war. And it is doubtful that economic conditions would exacerbate them to the point that war or secession are contemplated.

Panarin seems clueless about our national character. Americans have more of a tendency to pull together more in times of crisis than they do when they have the luxury and time to be contentious with each other.

No, what I see in Panarin's "analysis" is a bit of projection in which he hopes what happened to the USSR happens to the US. A vastly reduced state who's satellites fell out of its orbit and are under the influence of other nations now.

And his projection of how the US would split is fairly laughable. California under the influence of China? Uh, I don't think so. If it were to be under the influence of any nation, it would be Mexico, and it would have a higher GDP than Mexico to boot.

Georgia, Alabama and Florida in a "Texas Republic" while South Carolina and North Carolina choose to hang with "Atlantic America?" Yeah, that's the ticket. He knows the south very well, doesn't he?

And Canada "grab" anything? With what? Our military deserters from Viet Nam?

This is funny and fun stuff, but in reality it is just some goofy Russian Prof. (hey we have our own here as well, as those who read QandO know) who has had a kooky theory for years which the convergence of events has given, for whatever reason, vastly more attention than it warrants.

[HT: JMcQ]
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Previous Comments to this Post 

Whereas there is a large hispanic population in Texas that does not equate to military force for Mexico.

Texas by itself has the military firepower to defend itself against Mexico. And yet we are supposed to believe that Mexico by itself will swallow up Texas along with 9 or 10 other states. Yeah can I have some of what he is smoking.

On top of all that just consider the economic implications of the US Splitting up.
"We want to split off from the US and become part of Mexico, oh and BTW all that money you paid into social security and your 401Ks. well just forget about that".

And China taking over the left coast. Umm HOW???

Canada with a very small military is going to just gobble up about 9 states as well.

What is the EU going to do to convince the NE to go along with them. I mean I know that liberals have a love fest with the EU (though I cant understand why) but they do so as Americans. Having to actually join the EU and live under their rules is something I dont see happening. The grass is always greener until you have to mow it.

Why the financial times would give this crackpot the time of day I have no clue.

The only way this would even possibly come about is a scenario like in the TV Series Jericho and even then it would be the longshot from hell.

Written By: retired military
URL: http://
I think he cribbed his thesis from Robert Heinlein in the novel Friday. Except that Heinlein’s version is supposed to be in a far future where we have interstellar travel.
Written By: Billy Hollis
Oh, and anybody who thinks Tennessee would end up in the same section as New England is, um, let’s just say woefully uninformed.
Written By: Billy Hollis
Why do I keep expecting to see a "Native American Nations" on that map?
Written By: Scott Jacobs
URL: http://
Yeah, I’m with "retired military". Mexico would not influence and own Texas; Texas alone would influence and own Mexico. Bundle more states together and it just gets more true. The Midwest wouldn’t go Canadian, they’d own Canada. Etc.

Actually, the really crackpot part is the idea that if the US splits up, it’ll feel obligated to join up with Canada, Mexico, etc. The US splitting may not be totally impossible, but any state in the US would be a fine country all on its own, it wouldn’t need to go running to Canada or anything. If the states group together, that’s even more true.
Written By: Jeremy Bowers
Panarin predictions are just too silly to justify reading the entire post.
Written By: Mal Gusto
URL: http://
Canada, with less than 40 million people, will have "influence" on the entire midwest.

Written By: GD

Epic Fail
Written By: shark
URL: http://
If the US were to Balkinize, it would take Texas one day to change its flag and modify its college football schedule and get back to business.
Written By: JamesT
URL: http://

I’m glad you are able to see the real deal here.

Let’s get this party started!

In reality, we Texans could go it alone. But it’d be nice to have a little buffer zone, like the Soviets had with Eastern Europe.

My only exception to these borders would be to include Colorado in the Texas Republic, as a very large part of that beautiful state is occupied by Texans already, whether they own property or just spend time relaxing up there.

And let the Vols and Carolinians join up with us as well.

Talk about being self sufficient, not to mention THE FOOTBALL!!! Whip up on the SEC!

Happy New Year!!!
Written By: Mark Cancemi
URL: http://
Most of what he says is silly. That said, there are a few plausible things that could happen. A civil war? No. Splitting up to be under control of various foreign influence? No. An economic downturn leading to civil unrest? Possibly, but not a civil war.
Written By: tkc
URL: http://
Texas republic, under the influence of Mexico.


Try, Mexico, under the control of the Texas Republic.
(and soon after, the rest of the former US....heh.....)
Written By: looker
URL: http://
Yeah, anything under the mason/dixon line going with the east? Well, maybe Maryland and DC, but puhlease...

Yeah, a workmate keeps whining about the US being to big to stay together.

Written By: Keith_Indy
Funny and insightful comments. The ties and passion of college football alone would be enough to form an SEC Republic. Better still, Texas would reform the old SWC and leave Tennessee, Florida, Georgia et al to reform the classic SEC — and then all would be right in the world.

The two new rival countries would still be strong allies, jointly repelling an attempted Mexican take-over of the South. Once Mexico is duly annexed as far south as Mexico City (should take about 10 days), the SWC and SEC would get to the noble business of compelling their new Mexican subjects to abandon fake "futbol" and start playing the real thing. After 20 years of practice, the Mexicans are allowed to form their own conference and gain full voting rights in a new confederation.
Written By: Jim Lakely
Didn’t I see the script before ?

I think it was the ABC mini-series "Amerika" with Rober Urich as Peter Bradford, the head of "Heartland" (Central North-American Republic).
Written By: Neo
URL: http://
This guy has been talking to Scott Erb!
Written By: Arch
URL: http://
Bonzo’s problem is he studies a lot, but doesn’t understand the American psyche. We’re not a bunch of ex-imperial provinces bound together under the tender goodness of Lenin 100 years ago. He’ll say he understands, but he really doesn’t understand, our national history is quite a bit different than the average.

But ask Erb, academics is sooooo smart sometimes.

Written By: looker
URL: http://
"The ties and passion of college football alone would be enough to form an SEC Republic."

As Burt Reynolds said in "The Longest Yard";
"You take your football down here real serious, don’t you?"

"Once Mexico is duly annexed..."

Why would Texas, or anyone, want Mexico? Even Mexicans don’t want to live there.

Written By: timactual
URL: http://
Where’s Jesusland?
Written By: huxley
URL: http://
Hehe. If he thinks Utah, Idaho, Nevada, and all those other states are going to sit still and become part of a greater California Republic, he obviously doesn’t know sh*t from Shinola. California would have to invade us, and we’d put up one hell of a fight. In fact a goodly amount of our population LEFT California on purpose, including me and my family.

This is what happens when people stay up too late at night playing Risk.
Written By: Wacky Hermit
Why would Texas, or anyone, want Mexico? Even Mexicans don’t want to live there.
There’s oil in them thar hills aren’t there...
Written By: Keith_Indy
For token Canadian input...

Why the hell would Survivalist Montana ever consent to be governed by a country with a near total ban on firearms? Seriously it would be easier to see Canada fracturing with all the great plains provinces and states joining together, BC becoming part of California, Quebec becoming it’s own country (finally). The Maritimes have always gone with the highest handout, so it wouldn’t be that difficult seeing them join Maine and areas thereabouts.

Also Florida joins Texas but Arizona doesn’t? Utah falls under the influence of Godless Chicoms? Really?
Written By: Joe Canadian
URL: http://
When I was in Korea back in the late 70s the commanding general was supposed to have made a statement regarding a North Korean invasion. I have a feeling that Mexico trying to take over Texas would evoke a similar statement.

"The war will last 7 days. 2 days of fighting and 5 days to police up the body bags".

Written By: retired military
URL: http://

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