Rita now a Cat 5 Posted by: McQ
on Wednesday, September 21, 2005
The storm of the month (year? decade? century? ... we'll see), Hurricane Rita, has now attained Category 5 status:
Hospital and nursing home patients were evacuated and as many as 1 million other people were ordered to clear out along the Gulf Coast on Wednesday as Hurricane Rita grew to a Category 5, 165-mph monster that could pummel Texas and bring more misery to New Orleans by week’s end.
And FEMA?
At a news conference Wednesday, R. David Paulison, the new acting director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, laid out the government's preparedness plan. Meals, ice, water, and hospital beds have been set up for those affected by Rita, and helicopters are in place to move emergency teams into position, he said.
Note also that Galveston and Texas are moving people now, and they're moving them according to their evacuation plan.
In Galveston, the Edgewater Retirement Community, a six-story building near the city’s seawall, began evacuating its more than 200 nursing home patients and retirees by bus and ambulance.
“They either go with a family member or they go with us, but this building is not safe sitting on the seawall with a major hurricane coming,” said David Hastings, executive director. “I have had several say, ‘I don’t want to go,’ and I said, ‘I’m sorry, you’re going.”’
The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston discharged 200 hospital patients healthy enough to go home and evacuated others by helicopter, ambulance and buses. “There are going to be some people who are too sick to evacuate and we are going to keep them here,” said spokeswoman Jennifer Reynolds-Sanchez.
About 80 buses began leaving Galveston at midmorning, bound for shelters 100 miles north in Huntsville. Dozens of people lined up, carrying pillows, bags and coolers, to board one of several yellow school buses in the city of 58,000.
Paging Mayor Nagin and Governor Blanco. This is how you're supposed to do it. Seems Nagin, at least, is figuring it out.
Buses stood by at the city’s convention center to evacuate the 400 to 500 residents Mayor Ray Nagin estimated were left in the main part of the city, on the east bank of the Mississippi River. Two busloads left on Tuesday. But almost no one showed up Wednesday morning.
So perhaps Katrina's legacy will be that people begin taking storm warnings seriously, and that governments learn they have to give more than lip service to preparedness and evacuation plans.
“The real lesson (from Katrina) that I think the citizens learned is that the people in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi did not leave in time,” said Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas. “We’ve always asked people to leave earlier, but because of Katrina, they are now listening to us and they’re leaving.”
Funny how that works. And it is probably true ... at least till the end of hurricane season. I have to wonder, then, if the infamous short-term American memory will again kick in and we'll be right back in the same boat next year.
Oh, and most are hoping that Rita doesn't take a right turn toward New Orleans. You know, I'm not sure I agree. New Orleans is already devastated and mostly empty. We already know its going to cost a lot to fix it back up. How much more could it be if Rita hits it?
Otoh, the rest of our refining capacity is found in the Galveston area, not to mention a sizeable population as of yet untouched.
From what I’ve seen, Katrina was Cat 5 out in the Gulf, too, but weakened before it hit, and there’s some chance Rita may weaken all the way down to Cat 3 by the time it hits land...
Oh, and most are hoping that Rita doesn’t take a right turn toward New Orleans. You know, I’m not sure I agree. New Orleans is already devastated and mostly empty. We already know its going to cost a lot to fix it back up. How much more could it be if Rita hits it?
I said the exact same thing this afternoon. NOLA is already evacuated for the most part and what’s left there to ruin? That section of the Gulf is nearly devoid of any buildings or bridges or roads or much of anything else that isn’t already set to be destroyed anyway.
The other thing that’s strange is all the rooting for Rita to steer directly west, straight into Mexico. The thinking is, I guess, that at least it’s not the U.S. But somebody is getting hit hard. And it’s not like we won’t pay for the resulting destruction if misses Texas/La. and hits Mexico. The fact of the matter is that it will be bad no matter where it finally lands.
I’ve followed hurricanes avidly since the advent of cable TV and the internet. I’m a realist and not an alarmist. Usually. This one is looking pretty scary, and that’s not just post-Katrina stress talking.
Yes, it will weaken from a Cat 5. But how much? I think the most telling data coming out of the NHC are the prediction trends. How are the storm track and wind speed projections being modified? The wind speed was predicted to drop to well into Cat 3 by landfall as of this afternoon, but this evening it’s looking like it might not drop below a Cat 4 after all. Something to watch...
To make things worse, the predicted track has been gradually been moving to the right (here’s an animated archive of projected track), bringing it currently just ~20 miles to the left of Houston and Galveston (remember, the right eyewall of a hurricane carries the most intense winds and surge. Maybe this trend will keep moving right and the storm will pass east of Houston. Maybe not. Something else to watch...
Speaking of surge, I was looking at Galveston Bay and its outlets to the Gulf. If on approach the winds and surge are right to left, the Bay will have hours to fill up (like Lake Pontchartrain). When the storm passes over, the waters in the Bay will be forced northwest - away from Galveston but right on top of Texas City - a HUGE oil refinery/port.
Guess my wife and I will have to ride it out. We are stuck here. Our cars don’t have enough range, and there is no gas to be had at all. way too much traffic. I would rather take my chances in my home than be stuck out in the road with a broke down car or no gas.
